Acadia stock plunged Wednesday after the company issued light guidance for Rett Syndrome treatment Daybue. ACAD stock undercut its 50-day line in morning trades.
During the December quarter, Daybue brought in $87.1 million in sales, topping forecasts that ranged from $84.8 million to $85.5 million, Mizuho Securities analyst Uy Ear said in a report. But Acadia Pharmaceuticals guided to $370 million to $420 million in sales this year. The midpoint of Acadia's outlook missed expectations for $410 million.
Still, Ear expects Daybue to reach $1 billion in peak sales. Daybue is the first and only treatment for Rett Syndrome, an inherited disease that affects the way neurons in the brain communicate. Chief Executive Steve Davis recently told Investor's Business Daily that there was a lot of pent-up demand when Acadia launched Daybue in the first half of 2023.
"It's almost as if we just fast-forwarded into the second year of launch," he said. "You get to critical mass of understanding of the drug and how to use it much faster. We set a phenomenal foundation in 2023 that will help a lot of families with this drug."
But on today's stock market, Acadia stock tumbled 9.9% to 23.75. That put shares below their 50-day moving average, according to MarketSmith.com.
Acadia Stock: Unexpected Seasonality
Mizuho's Ear says Daybue suffered from unexpected seasonal dynamics. There were fewer office visits from Rett Syndrome patients in December due to the holidays and related travel, he said.
"Specifically, 50% of centers of excellent had either zero Rett clinic days or reduced clinic days in January," he said. "In February, Acadia has seen a return in Rett clinic days tracking back to historical levels and new Daybue patient prescriptions returning to trends observed prior to January."
The seasonal trend is likely to continue in the future, but "we do not expect it to diminish Daybue peak sales potential considerably," Ear added.
For the first quarter, Acadia guided to $76 million to $82 million in revenue from the Rett Syndrome treatment. That missed ACAD stock analysts' sales forecasts for mid-$90 million to $97 million, he said. Ear kept his buy rating on Acadia stock, but lowered his price target to 39 from 40.
Needham analyst Ami Fadia noted there were more than 900 patients taking Daybue at the end of the fourth quarter. In late February, that had dropped to roughly 860 patients.
She also reiterated her buy rating on Acadia stock, noting "we believe that Daybue fundamentals remain strong with recovery of trends in February."
Nuplazid Could Help ACAD Stock
Promisingly for ACAD stock, revenue from antipsychotic Nuplazid came out ahead of expectations at $143.9 million. Analysts expected $139.7 million to $140.6 million, Mizuho's Ear said. Nuplazid treats psychosis due to Parkinson's disease.
Acadia is also testing Nuplazid — also known by the test name pimavanserin — as a treatment for the negative symptoms of schizophrenia. These include social withdrawal and emotional disorders. By the end of March, CEO Davis says the company expects to have the final results of a Phase 3 study, dubbed Advance-2. Acadia already has one successful final-phase study in hand, known as Advance.
Mizuho's Ear expects Acadia stock to pop more than 10 per share if the results are successful. Acadia's design for Advance-2 is similar to the design for the already successful Advance study. Further, the firm is testing the most effective 34-milligram dose.
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