AbbVie stock popped Friday after an analyst upgraded it on the remaining opportunity for its Cerevel takeover despite a huge misstep in schizophrenia treatment.
Earlier this month, AbbVie said its drug, emraclidine, failed in two final-phase studies of patients with schizophrenia. AbbVie stock tumbled 12.6% after reporting its test results on Nov. 11. Shares of rival Bristol Myers Squibb surged 10.5%.
The news put a damper on the $8.7 billion acquisition of Cerevel, from which AbbVie got emraclidine.
But Leerink Partners analyst David Risinger says there's still a lot to like about AbbVie. The Cerevel takeover could eventually yield promising drugs in the coming years. Further, AbbVie's immunology drugs, Skyrizi and Rinvoq, have a huge runway for growth in the U.S.
"We believe investors can take advantage of the emraclidine setback and election-related downdraft to purchase shares in this high-quality company," he said in a report.
AbbVie stock jumped 4.9% to close at 32.73. Shares remain below their key moving averages, but have been making inroads to their 200-day line over the past five trading days, according to MarketSurge.
AbbVie Stock Rocked By Setback
AbbVie was looking to rival Bristol's Cobenfy with emraclidine. But, after six weeks of treatment with the drug, patients didn't show a significant improvement in symptoms compared to the placebo group. In one of the studies, the placebo beat out emraclidine at the high dose.
Risinger removed his estimate for $900 million in 2030 emraclidine sales. But he raised his forecast for Skyrizi outside the U.S. to $5.2 billion from $3.9 billion previously. Skyrizi treats plaque psoriasis, psoriatic arthritis, Crohn's disease and ulcerative colitis.
"Our financial projections are roughly in line with consensus, but we see the potential for continued strong execution to drive upside, including for Skyrizi in its recently-launched ulcerative colitis indication," he said. "And we think the stock reflects low expectations for the company's pipeline and for future external deals ... which yields optionality."
It's true, he said, that AbbVie likely overpaid for Cerevel and will have to take a significant emraclidine write-down in early 2025.
But "we continue to view the company as having strong leadership with good judgment," he said.
Risinger kept his 206 price target on AbbVie stock.
RS Rating Sees Improvement
AbbVie stock has pulled back markedly from its intraday peak at 207.32 on Oct. 31.
And shares are now hitting a ceiling at the 200-day moving average. Meanwhile, its IBD Digital Relative Strength Rating — a measure of 12-month performance against all other stocks — has improved to 41 from 31 last week.
Follow Allison Gatlin on X, the platform formerly known as Twitter, at @IBD_AGatlin.
