I was wrong. I thought Aaron Rodgers and the Packers would divorce this month—that it would be an amicable one in which each side is O.K. with the result and happy (if not relieved) to move on, but a divorce nonetheless. But reports today indicate the marriage will continue, with a proposed continuance of four years (subject to change, of course), and it will be an expensive one.
As a prognosticator, even a supposedly keen one on this topic, I am surprised and admit my mistake. As a fan, however, I am pleased. What fan would not want Rodgers piloting their team? And, as everyone reading this knows, I have been partial to this player, even dealing with occasional storms of social media rebuke in doing so.
More déjà vu
There has been a lot of déjà vu with the Packers in the past couple of years, compared to my time working with the Packers, at the quarterback position. And now, there is even more than I thought there would be.
After being a first-round pick in 2005, Aaron sat as a backup to Brett Favre for three (long) seasons, an interminable amount of time in this day and age of teams getting first-round quarterbacks on the field as soon as possible. And as I have detailed, those were difficult times in managing the quarterback position. I dealt constantly with Brett’s camp saying to me: “Andrew, do you know what it’s like to come into work and sit next to your replacement every day?” And I dealt with Aaron’s camp constantly asking, “Andrew, is he ever going to play?”
Déjà vu happened 15 years to the day, as I wrote about at the time, when the Packers selected Jordan Love in the first round of the 2020 draft. We are now two years into Love’s waiting period, and I thought a leaguewide change in thinking about playing first-round quarterbacks in “modern” times would move the start of the Love era up one year compared to the chronology of the Rodgers era.
No recent first-round quarterback aside from Patrick Mahomes and Trey Lance has even sat for one full season, let alone three, and I thought, unscientifically I admit, that two was the right number. Also, of course, there was the well-known fact that Aaron has had some issues with the Packers—his recent softening of that stance notwithstanding. With that in mind, I had thought two years was the appropriate and correct time for transition.
But alas, there is more déjà vu than I thought there would be. The time frame will be three years of apprenticeship for Love, just as it was for Aaron, or perhaps more than that. Or perhaps the transition will never come.
What of Love?
I will never forget the searing image in my mind on draft night 2020—the COVID-19 draft with coaches and general managers in their basements with kids around them—of Packers general manager Brian Gutekunst and coach Matt LaFleur both smiling ear-to-ear after having traded up to draft Love. Aaron fell into our lap in ’05; in ’20 the Packers made an affirmative and aggressive move to acquire Love. With that, I thought the Packers would not wait three years. And perhaps at that time, that was the case, or even the case that they wanted Aaron to play only one more year. And maybe something changed that.
The something was perhaps an upgrade in Aaron’s play—he has been the NFL MVP in both seasons since the pick—or a realization that Love is not ready, or both.
It is hard to say we “knew” about Aaron before handing the keys to him (even in the face of Brett unretiring and wanting his job back) in 2008. We knew we liked him; we knew he had great arm strength and good mobility; we knew he had a calm demeanor and high intelligence; but we didn't know he would be the player he became. Who could have known that?
But we saw Aaron in two consecutive offseasons, in 2006 and ’07, to convince us he was ready. Brett would spend the offseason in Mississippi, except for minicamps, and Aaron basically ran the team for those months. Players would come up to our offices raving about Aaron, and he was a front-office favorite even in his apprentice years.
While Aaron stayed away this past offseason, the coaches and front office got to see Love run the team. Although offseason activities now don’t have the length or breadth they did under the 2011 CBA, the Packers still got to see Love in a leadership position through the offseason. And, of course, he played in a game against the Chiefs that Aaron missed with COVID-19, a defensive battle in which Love played unevenly, although he outgained Mahomes.
Maybe the Packers have not liked what they have seen, as many are opining that an extension with Aaron bodes as the end of Love in Green Bay. I do not believe that. Whatever the exact details of Aaron’s contract are, as discussed below, we know that 1) NFL contracts are never what they are reported to be, and 2) things change, as they have, I think, regarding the Packers’ view of Aaron.
Now, Love will wait three years, as Aaron did, or longer, until the baton is passed. The Packers will likely exercise his option after this season, giving them contract control for only 2023 and ’24, but so be it. If he actually plays and shows promise in ’23, his contract will be extended and renegotiated. If he does not play in ’23 or does not play well, his ’24 option year may be his last with the Packers. As all things, we will see.
The contract
Any discussion of what Aaron’s contract is or isn’t—and there have been disputed reports today about a $200 million deal—relate, to me, as to whether a clause from his contract from a year ago was reworked or not.
As we remember, Aaron came back last year, after all the rumbles of discontent, to a reworked contract that—according to all reports—included an out to become a free agent after the 2022 season, much in the way that Tom Brady had an out when he left the Patriots a couple of years ago. That was—and still perhaps is—extremely valuable, potentially making him the most valuable free agent in NFL history at this time next year. In the event Aaron gave up that out in a renegotiated contract now, that is extraordinary value to give up. And if he did, reports of $200 million or more would not surprise me.
Of course, as with all NFL contracts, the devil is in the details. The reports of $153 million guaranteed have to be fleshed out. The Packers traditionally do not provide “true” guarantees past Year 1 of contracts, so it is unclear what level of guarantee the amounts are past that. And even if guaranteed, those amounts would be passed along to a new team upon a trade next year, or later. Yes, folks, we could be in the same position again next year.
Whither Dave Dunn?
Perhaps the most interesting person in this Packers drama is an agent I dealt with many times when I was negotiating contracts with the Packers. His name is Dave Dunn, a former protégé of Leigh Steinberg and now a revered veteran of the NFL agent industry.
Dunn represents Aaron Rodgers. He also represents Jordan Love.
There may be no one alive who knows the Packers’ true intentions with Aaron and Jordan, but if there’s one person it would probably be Dave. What an interesting web he has woven here.
Again, as an analyst, I admit to my stance on Aaron being wrong. It’s a stance that I took from my knowledge and experience, especially with this team.
As a fan, however, I am happy. Watching the Packers’ success, albeit even with playoff disappointment, has been an experience for me and my sons that I cherish. Even with them far away as I am now an empty nester, we gather for Packers games whenever we can, whether through television, Packers bars or whatever viewing we can find.
The “beautiful mystery” of Aaron’s will he or won’t he with the Packers has been resolved, at least for the short term. The details of the contract will likely determine how long until the next drama will return. And for that, I am predicting—take this with a grain of salt after my stance this year—that it will be after this season.
Until then, we all—yes, even me—can stop talking about Aaron Rodgers for a while.
