PHOENIX — In the third inning of Thursday’s 5-4 Phillies win, Ketel Marte stepped up to the plate with runners on second and third. Nola fed him four pitches, one in the dirt, and three out of the zone. On the fifth pitch, a knuckle curve spun right down the middle of the plate, Marte pounced, launching a three run home run into the center field seats to give the Diamondbacks at 4-3 lead.
In the next at-bat, with no runners on base, Nola struck out Corbin Carroll, who hits for far more power than Marte does. In the at-bat after that, he induced a groundout from Christian Walker, who is batting .308/.367/.615 over his last seven games.
It was the perfect encapsulation of a growing trend that we’ve seen from Nola this season. There aren’t numbers — at least not public ones — on how pitchers pitch out of the windup and out of the stretch. But looking at how they pitch with runners on and with the bases empty can be a good estimate. And Nola’s numbers have gotten more pronounced of late.
In 2021, opposing hitters hit .224/.256/.370 against him when the bases were empty, versus .260/.335/.468 with runners on. In 2022, those numbers changed to .199/.237/.306 with the bases empty, to .259/.294/.426 with runners on. In 2023, the chasm between those two figures is as wide as it has ever been. This season, opposing hitters have hit .192/.240/.356 against Nola with the bases empty, and .299/.350/.533 with runners on.
According to Fangraphs, Nola’s strikeout rate has dropped from 26.6% with the bases empty to 18.2% with men on base this season. His walk rate has risen from 6% with the bases empty to 7.4% with men on base over that span. His strikeout rate rises back to 22.4% with men in scoring position and his walk rate drops to 6.6%, but it is still a notable change.
This could have something to do with MLB’s new rules. The bases are bigger now, which means that players might be more inclined to run, and Nola could be feeling the pressure of that. Pitchers and hitters are both adjusting to the pitch clock. Nola could take more time with runners on last season, and now he has to throw a pitch within a 20-second time frame.
Regardless, it’s something the Phillies and Nola will have to figure out. Nola retired all the batters he faced without runners on on Thursday except for three: Jake McCarthy, who hit a leadoff double in the third, and Gabriel Moreno, who hit a leadoff single in the fifth, and McCarthy, again, who hit a bunt single in the seventh.
You could even argue that McCarthy’s first hit should have been scored an error, since Kyle Schwarber misplayed it in left field. Nola has lamented that he hasn’t felt as consistent this season — and the difference between his pitching out of the stretch and out of the windup could be a big reason why.
He exited the game after allowing a walk to Geraldo Perdomo walked a batter in the seventh. He was charged with six hits, four earned runs, and one walk with nine strikeouts and one home run over 6.2 innings pitched. Gregory Soto entered in relief, striking out Emmanuel Rivera to end the inning.
If there is a silver lining to be gleaned from the Phillies’ pitching on Thursday, it was that Seranthony Dominguez looked more like himself. After allowing a game-tying, three-run home run on Wednesday night, and struggling with his command, he bounced back. Entering with one out in the eighth, Dominguez struck out both batters he faced. Eight of his 12 pitches thrown were strikes.
Another solid day for the bats
The Phillies combined for five runs and 13 hits on Thursday afternoon. They made plenty of hard contact (13 of their balls in play registered at 95 mph or harder). Bryson Stott looked particularly impressive. He put the Phillies on the board early with a solo home run to right field. It was his seventh home run of the season.
After Nola gave up the Phillies’ lead, the offense piled on. Schwarber hit an RBI double in the fourth inning to tie it at 4-4, and a few at-bats later, Harper hit an RBI single to give the Phillies a narrow 5-4 lead. Thanks to a shutdown performance from the bullpen, they were able to hold on to it.
