From a quarterback perspective, Sunday’s wild-card matchup between the Green Bay Packers and the Dallas Cowboys is as evenly-matched as it gets.
Let’s start with Jordan Love, who’s been among the NFL’s best quarterbacks in the second half of the season. Since Week 9, he’s completed 237 of 345 passes (68.7%) for 2,666 yards (7.7 yards per attempt), 21 touchdowns, three interceptions, and a passer rating of 108.2. These are wildly impressive numbers for a first-year starter with a highly aggressive mindset – in that time, Love has completed a league-high 23 passes of 20 or more air yards for 724 yards, seven touchdowns, one interception, and a passer rating of 126.4.
Under pressure, which Love will see from the Cowboys, he’s also been outstanding, with 42 completions in 92 attempts under pressure for 742 yards, seven touchdowns, one interception, and a passer rating of 100.9. At this point, there isn’t much you can do to fluster Love, and the extent to which head coach Matt LaFleur has handed the offense over to his young quarterback tells you all you need to know about his development.
Here’s the issue for the Packers – we have a situation in which Dak Prescott is saying, “Everything you can do, I can do… perhaps better.” In that same period since Week 9, Prescott has completed 254 of 370 passes (68.6%) for 2,882 yards (7.8 yards per attempt), 26 touchdowns, four interceptions, and a passer rating of 110.7. And yes, Love does have the league lead in deep completions, but Prescott it tied with him – 23 completions in 49 attempts for 741 yards, five touchdowns, no interceptions, and a passer rating of 127.3. Under pressure, Prescott has completed 62 of 103 passes for 864 yards, five touchdowns, one interception, and a passer rating of 99.3.
So, we’re splitting hairs. The advantage would seem to be in Prescott’s direction because of something neither quarterback can control. Dallas’ defense has been outstanding all season long, though they’ve dropped a bit in Pass Defense DVOA since Week 10 – eighth in the first half of the season, and 13th in the second. However, and as all Packers fans are aware, there are issues all over Joe Barry’s defense. Green Bay ranked 22nd in Pass Defense DVOA in the first half of the season; they’ve dropped to 27th since.
The quarterbacks are as even as you can get. That’s not the problem for the Packers. The problem for the Packers is the same problem they’ve had all season. It’ll be up to Barry and his staff to close the gap with a quickness.
Let’s now assume that Joe Barry isn’t going to close the gap with a quickness, and move on to how the Packers can gain an advantage elsewhere. And that advantage could easily be gleaned in the run game cultivated by head coach Matt LaFleur.
Over the last three weeks, running back Aaron Jones has 63 carries for a league-high 359 yards, 5.7 yards per carry, and four runs of 15 or more yards. Only James Conner of the Arizona Cardinals has more (five), and Conner got to face the Eagles’ and Seahawks’ run defenses over the last two games. The 14-yard run against the Bears last week was a great example of how the Packers get Jones going.
They motioned tight end Josiah Deguara from right to left, and tight end Tucker Kraft moved from the right side of the formation to deal the left inside edge against linebacker T.J. Edwards. Left tackle Rasheed Walker kicked up to take linebacker Tremaine Edmunds (taking him about 20 yards upfield before depositing Edmunds on his butt), and Deguara took out safety Jaquan Bricker. Meanwhile, receiver Romeo Doubs was busy keeping cornerback Tyrique Stevenson out of the play. The Packers are on point with their blocking concepts for such a young team on that side of the ball.
Is Jordan Love playing as well as any QB in the NFL right now? You bet your ass he is. However, let's not ignore the fact that over the last three games of the season, Aaron Jones led all backs with 359 yards. And those young @packers are blocking it up. Alert, @dallascowboys. pic.twitter.com/iRd8a1jNYF
— Doug Farrar ✍ (@NFL_DougFarrar) January 10, 2024
This approach could work against the Cowboys, who run a ton of big nickel and dime defense with a stunt-heavy front four. Defensive tackle Johnathan Hankins, who returned last week from the high ankle sprain he suffered in Week 14 against the Philadelphia Eagles, With Hankins on the field this season, the Cowboys have allowed 4.2 yards per attempt, and 2.2 yards after contact per attempt. Without Hankins, Dallas has allowed 4.9 yards per attempt, and 2.7 yards after contact per attempt. On-off splits don’t take all factors into account, but this one’s pretty simple, and the tape backs it up.
“He’s been toting that rock,” Hankins said this week of Jones. “He’s fast. He can run through blocks. All in all, he’s a great running back. They have a good combination of running backs, a great scheme. They’ve been doing everything they’ve needed to do to get where they’re at. It’s up to us to go out there and stop the run.”
“Hank don’t move,” Dallas edge demon Micah Parsons said this week of the big man in the middle. “He’s a crucial piece to this defense. It’s real crucial to have Hank back – especially with how good their gap schemes and pullers are – to get him back in this lineup and get ready for Sunday.”
As for LaFleur, he couldn’t be happier that he has Aaron Jones on his roster, and he probably understands just how crucial Jones could be to his advancement in the postseason.
“He’s a guy that tilts the field in your favor,” Lafleur said of Jones after the Bears game. “He’s so dynamic, so explosive. Take all his ability as a football player out of it. He means so much to this locker room by his actions, by what he says and what he does on a daily basis. He’s a real leader in this locker room. Real leader for our football team. He inspires everybody and comes to work each and every day with a great attitude. I can’t say enough great things about him. I’ve said it a million times about the kind of person he is.
“You cannot have enough Aaron Jones[es] on your football team.”
The Packers have one Aaron Jones, and they’d better deploy him generously.
In this week’s “Xs and Os with Greg Cosell and Doug Farrar,” the guys dive deeper into the importance of Green Bay’s run game against the Cowboys.
New "Xs and Os with @gregcosell" on @TheNFLWire: Sunday's wild-card game between the @packers and @dallascowboys is perfectly matched from a QB perspective, and Green Bay's defense doesn't measure up
Packers RB Aaron Jones could be the X Factor. https://t.co/OkoU7CbkYn pic.twitter.com/txoTLJvpKN
— Doug Farrar ✍ (@NFL_DougFarrar) January 12, 2024
You can watch this week’s “Xs and Os,” previewing every game in the wild-card slate, right here:
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