The Bonn Climate Change Conference was the last big milestone in climate negotiations before the first Global Stocktake under the Paris Agreement at COP28 (Conference of the Parties 28) in Dubai in December. The Global Stocktake is mandated under Article 14 (1) of the Paris Agreement to assess collective progress towards long-term global goals. This includes progress on greenhouse gas reduction, building resilience to climate impacts, and securing finance to address climate crisis. The outcome of the Global Stocktake will inform countries on how to update and enhance their actions.
In 2015, under the Paris Agreement, countries had agreed to “pursue efforts” to limit global temperature rise to 1.5°C. That the Bonn Conference was held in the context of overweening emphasis on restricting global average temperature below 1.5°C as compared to pre-industrial levels was reflected in the negotiations. The two agenda items — mitigation pathways compatible with the temperature goal, and climate finance flows from developed countries to developing countries to enable them to mitigate greenhouse gas emissions (in line with Article 4.5 of the Paris Agreement) — remained points of contention between the developing countries and the Environmental Integrity Group represented by the European Union and others. The signal from the Bonn Conference was that developing countries too need to be more ambitious in their emission reduction if the world is to limit rising global average temperatures in the context of adequate finance being provided by the developed north.
Just transition pathways
On June 14, climate change negotiators arrived on a compromise on one of the aspects, which relates to the work programme on ‘just transition pathways’. The subsidiary body adopted the draft text aimed at working on ‘just transition pathways’, and the output will be placed at COP28.
The Parties to the Paris Agreement had introduced ‘just transition pathways’ at COP27. India’s climate policy is derived from the principle of common but differentiated responsibilities and respective capabilities. In its long-term low emission development strategy at COP27, India underlined the need for “financing” a ‘just transition’ in sectors such as energy and transport in order to reach net zero emissions by 2070. Thus, ‘just transition’ means that the transformational pathways need to be carried out in a way that is as fair and inclusive as possible to everyone concerned. India is concerned about the difficulties it is going to face in decoupling its economic development from greenhouse gas emissions. India also stated that the route to ‘just transition’ needs to be clubbed with the means of implementation.
The adoption of the ‘just transition pathways’ in the draft text of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change’s Subsidiary Body of Implementation is also aligned with the Paris Agreement strand, which is self-differentiation grounded in the idea of nationally determined contributions. This bottom-up approach was inserted in the Paris Agreement with the idea of allowing developing countries, which face special needs and circumstances, to align their low-carbon development pathways that integrate socio-economic components in line with state-determined development priorities. In the Bonn negotiations, developing countries were able to strengthen the ‘just transition pathways’ as opposed to the developed countries which which laid more emphasis on mitigation. ‘Just transition’ also helps the parties in respecting other soft obligations emanating from the UN Sustainable Development Goals of 2015 and the ILO’s guidelines on just transition.
Mobilising finance
Climate finance flows are not aligned with the priorities identified by countries in their nationally determined contributions. In the domain of international monetary transfers, accounting remains highly contested. Many observers say that only a fraction of the $100 billion has actually been realised (At the 2009 Copenhagen Climate Change Conference, 2020 was made the deadline for developed countries to jointly mobilise $100 billion a year of climate finance for developing countries). Additionally, adaptation finance has lagged behind mitigation finance, probably due to the absence of universally agreed-upon metrics. At the Conference, the Environmental Integrity Group insisted on the Mitigation Work Programme to be yielding the finance — a move to somewhat digress from the transfer of major portion of international public finance from the developed countries to developing countries. The objective of the Mitigation Work Programme, as per the COP26 mandate, is to urgently scale up mitigation ambitions and implementation in this decade in a manner that complements the Global Stocktake. The programme will work along a number of lines which could include organising workshops to identifying policies and technologies that are actionable solutions.
In the efforts towards aligning climate finance with the Paris Agreement temperature goals, it is important to integrate the World Bank in climate change negotiations and hold it accountable as it is making huge investments in fossil fuels. Therefore, the pursuance of the Global Stocktake as per the Paris Agreement needs to comply with the principle of equity, justice and fairness.
