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Wales Online
Wales Online
Sport
Matthew Southcombe

A Six Nations super computer just played out this year's tournament 10,000 times and says France won't win it

England have been tipped as comfortable favourites for the 2022 Six Nations Championship.

Eddie Jones' side have a handful of injuries to deal with and they've had a tumultuous build-up ahead of their trip to face Scotland in round one.

Captain Owen Farrell is out of the tournament through injury, and Courtney Lawes and Jonny Hill are both missing the Calcutta Cup match.

Jones has done his best to remove the pressure on his side this week by insisting all the pressure is on Scotland in round one.

“Scotland are red-hot favourites,” said Jones. “They’ve got to cope with that expectation. There’ll be 67,000 fans and they’ll be thinking about all the fans watching the game on the [TV].

"They have to carry that burden. Every game for us is the same – we’re expected to win, so it’s no different for us. We want to get on the front foot and take Scotland on.

"It’s the first time I’ve had the experience of going up there when Scotland have been red-hot favourites. They’re expected to win.

"They’re well coached by Gregor, they’ve got some outstanding players, but that expectation of winning is a different pressure to handle and I’m not sure how they handle that.

"What we know is that we’re well prepared and we’re coming after them."

Despite Jones' comments, forecasts by QBE Business Insurance are giving England a 46% chance of claiming the title this year. Next best is Ireland on 17%, Wales and France are on 15%, Scotland at 7% and Italy, apparently, have zero chance.

The estimations also say there is a 73% probability that there will be no Grand Slam this year.

Wales have been given just a 33% chance of winning their opening match in Dublin this weekend by the predictor, with the score expected to be 25-18 to the hosts.

QBE say: "The QBE Predictor is calculated using a complex mathematical formula and computer model by catastrophe planners at QBE.

"The Predictor applies techniques actuaries use to predict the impact of catastrophes such as natural disasters and simulates the tournament 10,000 times producing outcomes from 150,000 games with every match replicated by generating a number of tries, conversions and penalties scored by each team.

"The predictions are based on analysis by QBE actuaries of how well each team has played in the past against opposition of a similar ranking, as well as the success ratio for kickers, the impact on each team playing at home or away, and the international experience of each team captain."

Championship winner predictions

England 46%, Ireland 17%, Wales 15%, Scotland 7%, France 15%, Italy 0%

Round one predictions

Ireland 25-18 Wales

Scotland 20-20 England

France 42-17 Italy

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