Alright people, buckle up because Mother Nature’s about to throw us another curveball. Just when you thought you had your summer plans sorted, La Niña’s might be crashing the party for the fourth time in five years. So if you were planning out your summer fits, you might want to pivot to drenched rat chic instead.
But, before you start building an ark or investing in gumboots, let’s break down what this means for the rest of your summer.
What is La Niña?
La Niña is basically a weird ocean cooling that’s messing with our weather. It’s a climate pattern where the Pacific Ocean near South America gets cold, while the waters near Australia warm up like a spa on steroids. This causes stronger trade winds, pushing more warm, moist air our way. Usually, La Niña forms in winter, peaks in spring, and fizzles out by summer. But not this year.
Why is this La Niña special?
This La Niña is rare because it is only the second time in 75 years we’ve seen it form in summer. The Pacific Ocean’s pulled a switcheroo, with the Niño3.4 Index (fancy science speak for ‘how La Niña-y are we?’) dropping to 0.9 degrees Celsius below average, which can trigger La Niña conditions.
What does La Niña mean for your beach plans in Australia?
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Rain, rain, and more rain: Australia has been seeing about 20 per cent more rainfall than usual across most of the country between December going into May, per ABC. The east coast and tropics are set to cop it the most, with some weather models predicting up to a 90 per cent chance of above-median rainfall. So maybe pack a waterproof beach bag, yeah?
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Temperatures all over the place: Don’t get too excited about cooler weather. Despite the extra rain, temperatures are expected to be average or slightly above average for the first few months of 2025. It’s thanks to warm sea temperatures and our old mate climate change. So you’ll still need your sunscreen and hat for those beach days.
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Tropical cyclone watch: For our northern mates, La Niña usually means more tropical cyclone action. In fact, the Queensland coast sees three to four times as many cyclones during La Niña years compared to El Niño years, according to CSIRO. Time to keep an eye on those weather warnings if you’re planning a tropical getaway.
- Mixed bag down south: While most of Australia’s getting ready for a soaking, South Australia, Victoria, and Tasmania might be spared the worst of it. But keep your umbrellas handy.
Remember, this La Niña is showing up fashionably late to the party, so it might be weaker and more shorter-lived than usual.
But, in the world of weather, anything can happen. We won’t know for sure if we are in fact experiencing La Niña, till the BoM makes that official. So keep your beach plans flexible and your weather app handy!
Lead image: Drew Barrymore / TikTok
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