On a typically grey day in Greater Manchester, the diggers are rumbling along the roads outside Bolton market. Half a decade since the last departure from the old Moor Lane bus station, the council’s “masterplan” for redevelopment is still a work in progress.
“It’s a big disappointment,” says Phyllis Waits, stopping with her husband, John, to buy fish in the market. “Bolton used to be thriving. It’s a Friday morning – it should be absolutely buzzing, but there are only a handful of shops left. Everywhere has closed.”
Before this week’s local elections on Thursday, the dilapidated state of the town centre is among the top concerns for voters. As the only Conservative-run council in Greater Manchester, with a minority Tory administration propped up by independents, Labour is hoping to make serious inroads.
Bolton is exactly the kind of place Keir Starmer must regain, as he hopes to turn a commanding 18-point lead in the national opinion polls into local electoral reality.
Another major concern, one reflected across the country, is the soaring cost of living with households facing the biggest annual hit to their disposable income since the 1950s. With sky-high energy bills and the rising cost of a weekly shop pushing inflation above 10%, it’s an issue that comes up time and again on the doorstep.
“We’re struggling,” says Nick Peel, the leader of Bolton council’s Labour group, standing on the sandstone steps of the grand 19th-century town hall. “The inability to keep your house warm, struggling to buy basic foodstuffs. Clothes for children for school, etc. People are genuinely worried and upset about it.”
Towns in the north of England are being hit harder by the cost of living crisis than the south, according to the Centre for Cities thinktank. High inflation, rooted in basic essentials such as energy and food, is felt more by households on lower incomes than higher ones. That’s especially true in Bolton, where the average disposable income is below the UK average, and almost five times lower than in the wealthiest places in Britain.
Despite this, Peel isn’t sure the Conservatives will be punished so heavily in Thursday’s election. Even if the government in Westminster could do more to help, the outcome could swing on more local concerns, he says. The vote is complicated by the rise of small parties and independents, who now control a fifth of council seats. Meanwhile, many voters back candidates they know from their community, regardless of the rosette colour.
“I’m not convinced that’s going to actually reflect in the results,” says Peel. “I think the Tories are deliberately coming out with statements like, ‘Oh they’re looking at a sound thrashing’ at the election. I think they’re overplaying it.
“I just get a feeling that we’re not seeing that seismic shift.”
Charlotte Ozard and her partner, out shopping in the market with their son, have had enough of Tory governments. “Just look at them – Sunak and Johnson. It’s an old boys club. There has been absolute decimation of public services, it’s just ridiculous.”
But they still intend to vote for their local Tory councillor. “Normally I’d never vote Conservative. But, because she’s so personable, I’m not interested in what party she’s from. She’s working for our local area. It’s different at local levels.”
Bolton to the uninitiated is a dyed-in-the-wool Labour town, rich in industrial heritage, trade unions and working men’s clubs. And while this “red wall” reputation in the national media is far from baseless, nor is it uniform, thanks – in part – to affluent, typically Tory-voting villages dotted around the borough.
“There’s truth and myth. Lots of traditional Labour voters voted for Mrs Thatcher in Bolton,” says Martyn Cox, the council’s Conservative leader. “This idea that there’s some new phenomenon is only prevalent among those under 35.”
Despite not quite fitting the stereotype, Bolton is still the joint-third most deprived borough in Greater Manchester, alongside Tameside, beaten only by Oldham and Rochdale.
Dave Bagley is the chief executive of Urban Outreach, a Christian charity which provides food for households in crisis. From its base in a former Office Outlet shop on a retail park on the edges of town, it delivered more than 130,000 food parcels last year, and almost £1m of gas and electricity top-up vouchers.
Standing among a sea of green crates, piled high with tinned food, he says the type of people needing help has changed in the cost of living crisis. “The biggest issue is the utilities,” he says.
Bolton was an economic powerhouse in the 19th century, as cotton-spinning, mining and trade made some of its families immensely wealthy. Through decades of decline, jobs in retail took some of the strain. Yet the rise of internet shopping, the impact of Covid, and faltering attempts at town centre regeneration has added to Bolton’s woes.
Since the 2010s, austerity has made matters worse, with estimates that more than £1bn in spending power has been lost for Bolton council since the Conservatives came to power in Westminster 13 years ago.
“This was a perfect storm,” says Bagley. “And for God’s sake, you wonder how people did not see that? If you reduce the amount of money in the economy, and if you then increase the price of everything, how is that not going to create the greatest calamity we could ever experience?
“We were already hurting, then we were hurt more, and then we were kicked in the head.”
Labour caught some of the blame for potholes and fraying public services while in charge of the council until 2019, despite the role of Tories in Westminster starving it of funds. The party angered locals for other reasons too, including a controversial £300,000 grant made under emergency powers to Asons, a local personal injury law firm, which later went out of business.
“The people have had a fallout with us, and it’s our fault. And up to us to rebuild that relationship,” says Peel. “However, conversely, this administration – this Conservative administration – is increasingly perceived as arrogant and devoid of ideas.”
There had been hope that years of decline could be reversed with a levelling up boost.
However, many locals have been let down. Promises of a tram link to Manchester made by Grant Shapps before the 2019 election have yet to see movement, Marks & Spencer and Debenhams stores have closed down, while council bosses missed a deadline for a £16m levelling up grant because of an email mishap.
Bolton lost out on a further £40m of levelling up cash earlier this year after other bidders were picked instead, highlighting how even a flagship Tory council can be overlooked.
Martyn Cox says the council has won several other bids worth £149m combined, including £20m of levelling up funds for a new medical college. “It isn’t true we haven’t received money,” he says. “We’ve got enormous public funding schemes going on right across Bolton.”
But neither is he afraid to express disappointment. “As the Guardian has well documented, the revenue budgets of local authorities are not what they used to be. So we don’t have huge teams in regeneration. And if they’re spending all their time bidding, they’re not spending their time in regeneration,” he says.
“That has got out of control. I think the government needs to look at local authorities and say, they’re on the ground, they’re best placed to decide. And here’s Bolton’s levelling up money. Go and level up.”
Kirith Entwistle, the Labour parliamentary candidate for Bolton North East, where the party lost by just 378 votes in 2019, says people have been let down.
“Bolton is definitely a place to watch. It will be an outcry of what people are feeling.”
Thursday will be a test of whether Boltonians are still prepared to trust the Conservatives, despite the setbacks. For Labour, it will be a challenge to restore faith.
