The first big dump of snow for the year is forecast for the Snowy Mountains early next week.
The timing couldn't be better for alpine resorts gearing up for the start of the ski season on June 11.
"It's real Goldilocks stuff," said Rhylla Morgan from Buller Ski lifts in the Victorian ski fields.
"We don't want snow too early. We don't want it too late. We need the right amount of moisture and those temperatures to align at the right time. And it looks like it's doing that for us," she said.
Skiing in Australia can be a nerve-racking experience. A slight change in weather can turn dry white fluffy snow perfection into rain, slush and heartbreak.
But for now, the weather stars appear to be aligning, according to Jonathan Howe from the Bureau of Meteorology.
"We're looking at anywhere between 20 to 50 centimetres of snow, with heavier snow into south east New South Wales where you could see some pretty healthy totals," he said.
'We're only now daring to get excited'
Alpine businesses will welcome the favourable forecast after suffering through two years of COVID-related lockdowns.
"People were doing it tough. They were definitely on the brink of whether or not people went out of business," said Reggae Elliss, a Thredbo retailer and editor of the mountainwatch.com website.
"Last year we were excited about the season, and then Sydney went into that lockdown at the start of school holidays and occupancy down here in the Snowy Mountains dropped from 100 per cent to 30 per cent," he added.
But with snow on the way, people in the mountains were starting to allow themselves to get excited, according to Rhylla Morgan.
"The idea that we can think about going skiing, and having a meal with friends and doing fun stuff, just because it's fun, and it's in a beautiful place, is extraordinary and more exciting than the normal for the beginning of a snow season," she said.
The snow will arrive with some wild weather on Monday and Tuesday, with blizzard conditions and very strong winds. Conditions should ease on Wednesday, before another front comes through next weekend.
What sort of a ski season are we in for?
Jonathan Howe said the dominant climate driver this winter would be the Indian Ocean Dipole or IOD, which can play the role of Goldilocks, bringing moisture needed for snowfall from the Indian Ocean all the way to the ski fields.
But the IOD can also play the role of The Three Bears, bringing rain.
"The IOD can go either way. It does increase the cloud, which can increase the temperature as well," said Jonathan Howe.
"But so we really need it to be just right. We need that tropical moisture coming in as rainfall, combining with those cold temperatures to provide the perfect conditions for snow. And that's what we'll see this week."
Why are Australian ski seasons so fickle?
Australia's ski fields are in the wrong place, according to Jonathan Howe from the Bureau of Meteorology.
"The ski fields are quite far north towards the equator, if you think about it. And also our mountains aren't really that high," he said.
"But also we're surrounded by water. We're an island. To Australia's south you've got ocean and ocean just doesn't really get below zero in terms of the sea surface temperatures."
"So we very much rely on cold air masses coming in from Antarctica, and they're punctuated with warm air coming through. So we tend to get a wetter, more spotty kind of snowfall."
"On top of that, with the warming climate, generally the snow depth has been decreasing over the years across Victoria and New South Wales."
And yet ...
Despite all the reasons it shouldn't snow in Australia, it does in abundance, and it will again next week, in deep fluffy white mountains of powder.
And once again, Australians will celebrate the modest miracle that is skiing and snowboarding on the flattest, driest continent on Earth.
