VICTORIA ELECTIONS FALLOUT
As vote counting resumes in Victoria following the weekend’s by-elections, there’s plenty of analysis and hot takes around this morning on what the results mean (or don’t) on a national level as everyone waits around for Anthony Albanese to call the federal election.
The Australian Financial Review reports federal Labor officials yesterday were trying to play down the implications of the result in the seat of Werribee, where the paper says with about 75% of the vote counted, “Labor candidate John Lister held a narrow lead of just a few hundred votes for retiring treasurer Tim Pallas’ former seat, which Labor has held since 1979 and entered with a 10.9% margin. But Labor’s primary vote plunged nearly 17% to 28.7% on Saturday, in a stinging rebuke from voters”.
In the other by-election at the weekend, the Liberals won the inner-Melbourne seat of Prahran back from the Greens for the first time in a decade.
Guardian Australia highlights Victoria Premier Jacinta Allan was asked yesterday if she was the right person to lead Labor following the Werribee result, to which she replied: “We know by-elections are tough for governments. We know that’s particularly so for governments when we’re in the midst of a global cost of living crisis.” She added: “I know that there is more to do, to build on the work we’ve already been doing to support working people and families, but we’ve heard very clearly that people are looking to governments to do more, and we are listening to that, and we will.”
The AFR quotes a Coalition frontbencher in saying the by-election results have given federal Liberals optimism they can make inroads in Melbourne. “Obviously, there is still work to do, but on the whole it shows if we can get the messaging right, there is definitely a mood against Labor. Our biggest challenge is how we can take that strong move against state Labor and capitalise on it federally,” the MP said.
Meanwhile, a federal Labor MP tried to point out only a small amount of the party’s primary votes went to the Liberals. “People are unhappy with Labor but unconvinced by the Libs,” they said.
A state Labor MP also told the paper: “The message is that more money has to be invested in Werribee for community services, roads and infrastructure.” They said Liberal candidate Steve Murphy receiving less than 30% of the primary vote also put Victorian Liberals and Coalition leader Peter Dutton on notice.
One federal Labor MP told The Australian: “It was a massive whack. They [the voters] are shitty with Labor because they don’t feel we are focused on their priorities.” Several federal members told the paper crime had been a major issue raised in recent months.
Finance Minister Katy Gallagher said of the federal implications: “Our focus will be selling what we have done and what we will do, and that will be in stark contrast to Peter Dutton and what he will do.”
Gallagher appeared on ABC’s Insiders on Sunday and was also asked about the government’s response to US President Donald Trump’s comments about America “taking over” Gaza. The ABC reports the minister was pushed on whether the Albanese government was fearful of upsetting the Trump administration with any response to the president’s rhetoric.
“We’ll always make our decisions based on Australia’s national interest. Obviously, it’s an important strategic — America is an important strategic partner. We will navigate the relationship and President Trump’s presidency in accordance with those principles,” she said. Gallagher added the government had made clear that its position was for a two-state solution, saying: “If you’re talking forced displacement … that is not consistent with international law. So our position is and has been very clear and consistent and remains consistent, and it’s a bipartisan position in this country.”
Trump, for his part, is preparing to attend the Super Bowl in New Orleans in a few hours (get ready for your timeline to be swamped with images of him at the game, Taylor Swift at the game, reminders of how Drake will probably skip watching the half-time show, and all things AMERICA).
Miranda Devine in the New York Post says Trump spoke to the publication onboard Air Force One and claimed he had talked with Russian President Vladimir Putin to try and negotiate an end to the war in Ukraine.
“He wants to see people stop dying,” Trump reportedly said of Putin. When asked how many times he had spoken to the Russian leader, Trump replied: “I’d better not say.” The US president also said of his plans to end the war: “I hope it’s fast. Every day people are dying. This war is so bad in Ukraine. I want to end this damn thing.”
LAST SITTING WEEK?
Could it be the final sitting week of this term? Or will Labor actually go ahead and have the election in May and therefore a budget next month? No-one knows, but also, no-one will stop speculating (weekly reminder of my colleague Anton Nilsson’s piece which highlights all the times the media called it wrong).
What we do know is there’s another sitting week to get through and the Labor government still has a load of stuff they’d like to try and get done, if only people would stop demanding compromises and amendments…
Guardian Australia reports this morning the Greens are calling on Labor to drastically cut the NBN CEO’s pay if the government wants their support for a bill to block any future privatisation of the publicly owned network.
“The party’s amendments to Labor’s bill include a salary cap for senior executives, placing a legal obligation on NBN services to remain ‘affordable and accessible’ to consumers, and providing cost of living relief for those who can’t afford essential communication services,” the site reports.
The most recent NBN Co annual report revealed then CEO Stephen Rue was on a remuneration package of $2.85 million, including a $645,000 bonus, the report adds.
Greens Senator Sarah Hanson-Young is quoted as saying: “Something is clearly wrong when the publicly owned NBN Co pays its executives millions of dollars while some Australians are struggling to pay their monthly internet bill or access a reliable service for a network Australians built and own.”
Over the weekend, Guardian Australia also reported the Albanese government is considering a range of changes to its electoral reform legislation to try and get it passed.
“The Special Minister of State, Don Farrell, is considering amendments to the government bill to increase spending and gifts caps, although it is unclear how much the government is willing to budge,” the site said.
Also at the weekend, The Sydney Morning Herald reported Albanese had overruled Attorney-General Mark Dreyfus when Labor broke with its own longstanding policy by imposing mandatory sentences for hate crimes. The paper claims Dreyfus “made clear to the government’s leadership this week that he did not support the change”, according to sources familiar with the talks.
Meanwhile, on Sunday, Health Minister Mark Butler announced “$573.3 million to deliver more choice, lower costs and better health care for women”. The Sydney Morning Herald states the funds will mean “Australian women will save hundreds of dollars a year on hormone replacement therapies and contraceptive pills under the first new subsidies for reproductive health treatments in decades”. The paper added: “Labor will also boost payments to make long-acting contraceptives $400 cheaper, while introducing new Medicare rebates for menopause assessments and developing Australia’s first set of guidelines on the condition.” The SMH says the investments are part of Labor’s Medicare-focused pitch to voters.
The ABC flags Albanese will also today “promise to lock grocery prices in remote stores to city prices”.
A lot of spending pledges then with the election campaign basically up and running, without formally being up and running. On that theme, Albanese has told The Saturday Paper in an interview: “I’m better than I was 10 years ago … I walk a lot. I swim, play tennis, do all that. I watch my diet, and I’m alcohol-free from Christmas, from New Year’s Eve, for the duration. I did that last time [2022 election]. It helps. And I love campaigning. I love engaging.”
He repeated his usual attack lines on Dutton — and responded to the Coalition leader’s ones against him — as he defended his government’s record. Albanese also said: “I can’t see that anyone who didn’t vote for Scott Morrison in 2019, if they’re in Warringah or Mackellar, why are they going to vote for Peter Dutton, when the reasons why I think many of those candidates were successful was about climate policy, integrity and the National Anti-Corruption Commission, and gender equity. If anything, the Liberal Party has become more right-wing.”
ON A LIGHTER NOTE…
The rescue of 102 red-bellied black snakes from a pile of mulch on Boxing Day made domestic and international headlines last week as details of the event went viral.
The BBC reports Cory Kerewaro’s business was called to a property in Sydney’s west to rescue “a bunch” of snakes after one was reported to have bitten a dog.
Kerewaro said his colleague Dylan Cooper called him within 15 minutes to say: “Mate, I’m going to be here a while. It’s a pretty big pile… I’m already over 15 snakes!” Kerewaro added: “I thought he was stitching me up.”
Initially, 40 snakes were discovered but a number of the adults gave birth to more while they were waiting to be relocated.
Kerewaro told ABC Radio Perth the rescue took about three hours.
“We pulled over 40 out of the pile straight away. And when they’re in the bag during the relocation process, they’d actually given birth by the time we left and it drove the numbers up to 102,” he said and claimed during the interview the snakes were still “sitting right next to me”.
Say What?
I wish Keith Pitt the best of luck for this future in the diplomatic corps.
Colin Boyce
At the end of last week it was claimed Prime Minister Anthony Albanese is planning to announce outgoing Nationals MP Keith Pitt as the next ambassador to the Holy See, the ABC reports. Pitt resigned as the MP for Hinkler with immediate effect last month after publicly expressing frustrations with the Nationals’ climate policy.
CRIKEY RECAP
True, Dutton got the media to follow his narrative about the Dural caravan — that the only interesting aspect was when the prime minister was told about it — when the important issue was exactly what the intention behind the caravan was and who was responsible. Was it a planned mass casualty attack that was only foiled by accident? In which case, it’s the biggest failure of counter-terrorist intelligence since only sheer good luck prevented the Khayat brothers from blowing up an Etihad airliner out of Sydney in 2017. Or is it something quite different? And how much has the leaking to the media, and the subsequent political pointscoring over it, undermined the investigation by police and intelligence services?
Crikey understands from a figure with extensive intelligence community connections that agencies are unhappy with Dutton’s handling of the issue, with the word “reckless” being used. Of course, intelligence and security agencies generally prefer politicians to stay out of their business altogether. But will we now ever learn exactly what the intent behind the explosives was?
Dutton went on to suggest that security agencies thought the prime minister was a security risk, for which he could furnish no evidence — but lack of evidence doesn’t hinder employment of the technique famously christened by Steve Bannon “flooding the zone with shit”. Indeed, the less evidence for the shit, the better. The media duly lapped it up.
Dutton began the year with huge political momentum, admittedly off the back of Labor’s poor performance rather than any policy offering. But as voters contemplate the chaos on offer in Washington from Trump 2.0, and Dutton flip-flops on key policies and struggles to keep his eye on economic issues — economics is where Dutton is weakest and least experienced — that momentum may be beginning to fade. Polling over the next couple of weeks will indicate if that’s true or not, before we enter the campaign proper.
If Labor’s cautious balancing act is aimed at seeming hands-on and productive without giving opponents any more ammunition so close to the election, the Coalition has a simpler tactic: relentlessly criticising the Albanese government.
“I think we’ve all heard a message right across the country, and it’s not the prime minister’s message that this is a year of optimism and that people are very happy with where the government’s at — it’s not that situation at all,” Opposition Leader Peter Dutton told his joint partyroom on Tuesday.
The Greens are walking a tightrope too, maintaining relentless pressure on Labor while trying to shake off its reputation as a stopping block in the Senate. The party has vowed to support government legislation like the childcare reform and a “free TAFE” bill that passed the House of Representatives on Thursday, but will make demands when it comes to passing a bill aimed at keeping the National Broadband Network public and will use its leverage to negotiate on the details of other bills.
“We’ve come to Parliament this week to get outcomes, but the ball is going to be in the government’s court on what they want prioritised — we want gambling reform, they know that. We’re willing to work with the government to try and pass the other bills,” Greens Senate business manager Sarah Hanson-Young told Crikey.
The result is that Australia has become a nation that, like its invertebrate analogues, has drifted on the back of adaptability rather than strength. While this strategy serves sea cucumbers and anemones well in stable seas, a middle power in an increasingly complex global order might need something more vertebrate: a solid diplomatic spine and the ability to maintain its shape even under pressure.
Strength and integrity — in both the moral and structural sense — require a backbone of consistent principle and action. Australia’s influence, while not unlimited, is significant enough to carry real global responsibilities (or, to have a real global impact). Until Australia evolves beyond this seductive spinelessness, we’ll remain what we’ve become: a diplomatic bottom-feeder, surviving on rhetorical flexibility while the currents of climate change swirl around us. As these currents grow stronger, we may find that lacking structural integrity isn’t just embarrassing — it’s fatal.
READ ALL ABOUT IT
Israel troops withdraw from corridor that split Gaza in two (BBC)
Fake cases, judges’ headaches and new limits: Australian courts grapple with lawyers using AI (Guardian Australia)
‘I was partying hard’: Senator Jacinta Price reveals MDMA spiral (ABC)
‘There is no case for it’: Dutton’s visa plan could cost $2.5b (The Sydney Morning Herald)
Some Afrikaners cheer as Trump amplifies claims of persecution (The New York Times) ($)
‘Not Like Us’ started as a diss. Now, it could be a Super Bowl anthem (CNN)
THE COMMENTARIAT
Liberal Party surges in Werribee and Prahran by-elections mount pressure on Allan Labor government — Richard Willingham (ABC): To say the Werribee by-election was terrible for Premier Jacinta Allan and her Labor government, would be a major understatement.
This is Labor heartland, but it’s not beating true. Voters have given the government an almighty whack.
The Super Saturday of by-elections shapes up to be the Liberals’ best electoral result since Ted Baillieu won office in 2010, with the party winning Prahran off the Greens, and possibly, just possibly, doing the once unthinkable — seizing Werribee.
The news is good for new Liberal leader Brad Battin, and his federal counterpart Peter Dutton.
It’s a message that the so-called progressive state is ready to ditch Labor, and the pair’s shared strategy to appeal to voters in once safe Labor suburban seats could work.
The US Government is not a startup —Brain Barrett (WIRED): The thing about most software startups, though, is that they fail. They take big risks and they don’t pay off and they leave the carcass of that failure behind and start cranking out a new pitch deck. This is the process that DOGE is imposing on the United States.
No one would argue that federal bureaucracy is perfect, or especially efficient. Of course it can be improved. Of course it should be. But there is a reason that change comes slowly, methodically, through processes that involve elected officials and civil servants and care and consideration. The stakes are too high, and the cost of failure is total and irrevocable.
Musk will reinvent the US government in the way that the hyperloop reinvented trains, that the Boring company reinvented subways, that Juicero reinvented squeezing. Which is to say he will reinvent nothing at all, fix no problems, offer no solutions beyond those that further consolidate his own power and wealth. He will strip democracy down to the studs and rebuild it in the fractious image of his own companies. He will move fast. He will break things.
