POLLING experts have given their verdict on the state of Scottish politics after a series of by-elections provided "real data" on what voters are thinking.
The numbers from the votes confirm what the polls are showing: The SNP are rising, Labour are slipping, and Reform UK are an electoral force north of the Border, experts told the National.
It comes after three council seats were filled after voters turned out on Thursday in both Edinburgh’s Colinton/Fairmilehead ward and Stirling’s Bannockburn.
In Edinburgh, the Tories and Labour won one seat each – replacing the LibDems and SNP – and in Bannockburn the SNP took a council place from Scottish Labour.
Polling expert Professor John Curtice said that none of the results were “straight-forward”, given that the Colinton by-election took place just weeks after the LibDems won a seat in the ward – and then saw their councillor immediately resign – and Bannockburn had a turnout of 18%.
However, he said that “with those caveats, neither result is particularly good for Labour”.
“The way I would put it is that there's nothing here to disturb the narrative that they are not as popular as they were six months ago,” Curtice said.
He further said there was “nothing here to disturb the notion that there hasn't been any great revival in the SNP support, but they are not losing ground in the same way that Labour have done in the last six months”.
Mark Diffley, the founder and director of Edinburgh-based research firm The Diffley Partnership, said that the Bannockburn result was interesting as it ended up looking like “a mini Scotland poll in many ways”.
“To some extent, it does actually confirm what's going on,” Diffley said.
“These are the big themes that are coming out of polling in Scotland at the moment: SNP resurgence, not fully recovered back to three or four years ago, but certainly a step up from where they were at the General Election.
“Labour falling back. Tories continuing to slide, and Reform coming up and being a serious contender.”
In the Colinton by-election, Reform UK won 5.5% of the first preference votes. This, Curtice said, was not surprising because “Colinton is not Reform territory – this is traditional true blue Tory middle-class territory”.
However, he said the less affluent Bannockburn was “absolutely” more fertile ground for Reform UK.
There, Nigel Farage’s party won 23% of first preference votes – just one point behind Labour and 12 ahead of the Tories.
Diffley said the result was “pretty extraordinary” and would not have gone unnoticed at Reform headquarters.
“Not that the money is their biggest issue, but like any party, where should they deploy their resources, where are they likely to have the most success next year [for the 2026 Holyrood elections].
“Clearly, Edinburgh isn't one of those areas, but Stirling possibly could be – as well as what we already know are up around the more Brexit-y northeast, Moray, Gordon.”
He added: “This confirms the other trend that we're seeing, that Reform needs to be taken seriously by the other parties, I think, and it’s not a ‘here today, gone tomorrow’ thing.”
It comes after a new Westminster poll from Find Out Now showed Reform UK in first place, ahead of both the Tories and Labour for the first time ever.
Farage’s party polled at 26% of the vote, to the Tories on 23% and Labour on 22%.
