For the second season in a row, superstar guard James Harden is the most notable player who could change teams in the middle of the season.
After the Nets sent out a massive return of draft picks and assets including Jarrett Allen and Caris LeVert to land Harden in Jan. 2021, it is possible that Harden could soon play for his third team in thirteen months.
The 6-foot-5 lefty guard was previously one of the longest-tenured players in the league, playing for the Rockets from 2012 until the blockbuster relocation to the Nets in 2021.
However, the season has recently taken a turn for the worse for Harden in Brooklyn. The organization, for all intents and purposes, is currently in peril. Although his team is one of the most dominant forces in league history when fully healthy, that has only happened for sixteen games thus far.
James Harden said it was "not about the money" when he did not sign an extension. If he is not traded by 3PM ET, we will find out if that is correct.
The cap space route for Philly would cost Harden between $70-$100M plus diminish a roster that he would be signing with.
— Bobby Marks (@BobbyMarks42) February 10, 2022
However, as noted by ESPN’s Bobby Marks, Harden could potentially earn somewhere between $70 million to $100 million more in salary if he either stays with the Nets or if he is traded to the Sixers than he would if he were to enter unrestricted free agency.
Based on the collective bargaining agreement, as they are his current team, Brooklyn is able to offer Harden approximately $270 million over the next five seasons.
Here is how that works: This offseason, Harden would opt-in to his massive player option, which is worth around $47 million. The 2018 NBA MVP would then agree to a four-year extension that is worth around $223 million over the next four years.
Overall, that equates to an average annual value of $53.96 million per season playing for the Nets. In such a deal, he could collect as much as $61.41 million in 2026-27. (For what it is worth: Harden will turn 38 years old in 2027.)
New story on @hoopshype: I wrote about the benefits of a James Harden for Ben Simmons trade for both teams and what it could take from the Sixers to get a trade done now.https://t.co/tKbpN58b5H
— Yossi Gozlan (@YossiGozlan) February 5, 2022
If the Sixers trade for Harden before the deadline, by inheriting his bird rights, Philadelphia would then get the same opportunity.
However, if he stays with Brooklyn and the Sixers then want to sign him outright as a free agent, he would have to opt-out of his player option. Philly’s front office could then offer up to $200 million — or $70 million less than the most they could have offered if they had landed him in a trade.
But considering the Sixers would need to clear cap space to have enough room to sign Harden, the figure might actually end up even lower than $200 million. Assuming that means they trade Tobias Harris and Ben Simmons to dump salaries, Philly might not make enough room to give him a full max.
Perhaps it would look something like $170 million over four seasons, or an average annual value of $42.5 million — which is $10 million less per season than the aforementioned figure.
Tobias Harris on his deadline plans: “I’ll be refreshing @wojespn tweets, and Shams, just like everybody else”
— Kyle Neubeck (@KyleNeubeck) February 9, 2022
Then, without players like Harris on the roster (because they were traded to make room for Harden), this would also give Philly a depleted roster and potentially worsen the strength of the team that he would join. That is the exact scenario he was walking away from in Houston and in Brooklyn.
Harden is already one of the highest-paid professional basketball players of all time, per HoopsHype, and he could jump into the upper-echelon with one more passive payday. He isn’t necessarily motivated by money — it is more likely a championship he is chasing.
But it is hard to find many people who would want to leave $70 million, and potentially even more, on the table. So if he wants to leave for the Sixers, the trade should happen today. If there is no trade, unless there is a complicated sign-and-trade deal in the offseason, it would make more sense financially to stay with Brooklyn for next year as well.
