When Valeria Schulczová launched the new programme of Bratislava’s Hviezdoslav theatre she did not anticipate any great controversy. As director, she had chosen a series of provocative, but not outrageous, productions for the coming season. But Schulczová had reckoned without the febrile politics and deep polarisation of her country before parliamentary elections on 30 September.
The main image advertising the new season suggested a stained glass window, a reference to the Stalinist-era decorations of the theatre, with young people marching below Ukrainian, anti-fascist and rainbow flags.
Within days, the inboxes of Schulczová and her staff were flooded with threats of rape and decapitation. An online petition demanding her dismissal was signed by thousands. An MP called her a “barbarian”. Outside the theatre, police intervened as rightwing protesters organised by a biker gang linked to extremist pro-Russian groups scuffled with opponents.
“The main message of our image was just to show very liberal young people today in Bratislava, happy and content under these flags but also somehow forgetful of the lessons of the past about authoritarianism and dictatorship,” Schulczová, 48, said. “If there had been no elections, no one would have noticed. But they did and made a huge storm.”
The frontrunner in the coming polls is Robert Fico, a veteran politician whose mix of leftist populist nationalism, social conservatism, anti-immigration rhetoric and promises of big spending has won him two previous long stints in power. But gaining on Fico and his Smer-SSD party is Progresívne Slovensko, a relatively new centre-left party of young modernisers with a very different vision of the future of their country. Most recent polls have given Smer a tight lead over PS, but a survey published on Wednesday put the latter on 18% and Fico’s party on 17.7%.
Still, most analysts predict a narrow victory for the pro-Russian Fico, which raises the prospect of a sharp change in Slovakia’s foreign policy, a threat to EU support for Ukraine and a boost for populist politicians across the continent.
Opponents also fear long-term damage to the country’s democracy, and point to Fico’s avowed admiration for Viktor Orbán, the populist and authoritarian leader of Hungary, in power since 2010.
“I think [Fico] will be much more like Orban than he was. He is emboldened now and he thinks society might tolerate it,” said Schulczová.
So far in a bitter and “toxic” campaign, the 59-year-old one-time communist youth activist has launched vitriolic attacks on political opponents, falsely alleged a coup plot and deliberately raised fears of a rigged election.
Smer and its potential far-right allies have also worked to make LGBTQ+ rights a central issue in the election, recognising the power to mobilise a core constituency. More than half of Slovakia’s population live in conservative small towns or rural areas and are often suspicious of progressive values increasingly widespread in its relatively small cities.
Fico could also be helped by longstanding pro-Russian sentiment, recently inflamed by the war in Ukraine, and a systematic disinformation campaign run by the Kremlin that has flooded social media, analysts say.
Both resonate with those who feel marginalised since the end of communist rule in 1989 and Slovakia becoming an independent state four years later. Many voters lost jobs, saw once stable communities fragmented and reassuring certainties overturned. Decades later, Slovakia’s elderly people struggle on pitiful pensions with patchy healthcare.
“There is a long and deep nostalgia. Many people’s expectations of democracy proved empty, they are disillusioned … and they are voting for Fico and parties further right,” said Dominika Hajdu, from the Bratislava-based thinktank Globsec. “Part of Slovakia is definitely still traditional and conservative and hasn’t been exposed to diversity, so the utilisation of this fear of the unknown is very effective.”
Another factor is the volatile politics of recent years. Fico was forced to resign as prime minister shortly after the 2018 murders of investigative journalist Ján Kuciak and his fiancee, which prompted the biggest protests in Slovakia since the fall of communism. A year later, amid further reports investigating graft and the outsize influence of shady business people, the human rights lawyer and activist Zuzana Čaputová was elected president. Then in 2020 a coalition of rightwing and centrist parties elected on an anti-corruption platform won power.
Riven by incessant factional disputes and personality clashes, the new government soon struggled. Though dozens of senior officials, police officers, judges, prosecutors, politicians and business people linked to Smer were convicted of corruption and other crimes, a chaotic response to the Covid pandemic and the cost of living crisis made a bad situation worse. A caretaker cabinet of technocrats was appointed earlier this year by Čaputová.
This political instability offered Fico a comeback – and gave him new motivation to win power. “Fico … looked down and out. The war in Ukraine was not the reason for his return but angry and resentful voters looking for a leader or champion,” said Milan Nič, senior research fellow at the German council on foreign relations.
The Smer leader himself faced criminal charges last year for allegedly creating a criminal group and misuse of power, but Slovakia’s pro-Russian prosecutor-general stepped in and threw out the indictment.
“He is borrowing from Trump and will do and say what is needed, taking from right and left. He’s been very skilful at positioning himself as anti-establishment. His main interest now is to dismantle the judicial effort … He is escaping by winning,” Nic said.
The atmosphere has been polluted further by conspiracy theories, often spread by Fico loyalists. Earlier this month, Čaputová said she was suing for defamation after she was described as an “American agent” and accused of treason.
The conflict in neighbouring Ukraine has widened existing divisions, forcing people to take sides. Fico and Smer have sought to portray support for Kyiv as unpatriotic. According to a March survey commissioned by Globsec , a majority of Slovak respondents believe the west or Ukraine are responsible for the war and half see the US as posing a security threat for their country, up from 39% in 2022.
Just as concerning, almost 38% of Slovakians say that having a strong and decisive leader who does not have to bother with parliament or elections is better than liberal democracy, the second highest level of 10 central and eastern European countries surveyed.
A “flood” of Russian disinformation on social media has played a significant role, Slovak officials said. But Fico has had much less success among the young or in relatively wealthy Bratislava, which has been transformed since Slovakia joined the EU and Nato in 2004.
Here, many voters are attracted to Progresívne Slovensko, which offers reform and more action on corruption, with a reinforced pro-EU, pro-west orientation and strong safeguards for minorities. A slight majority of the party’s candidates are women – a contrast with the male-dominated Smer – and many are young. The youngest is 22-year-old Gréta Gregorová, leader of the party’s youth wing and a Bratislava district councillor.
Gregorová said the main divide in Slovakia was generational, with first-time voters born after Slovakia joined the EU. “For young people equality, women’s rights, abortion laws, it’s a done deal. When we’ve been campaigning, it’s been the same everywhere. Young people come to us. They have this worldview. This is an EU generation,” she said.
Nor does Gregorová believe – unlike Schulczová – that young people have forgotten the lessons of history. Any disenchantment with democracy was more due to recent political chaos than amnesia, she said.
“Young people here have this worldview and they have to come and vote. If they don’t the future is not going to be brighter.”
Whatever the unpredictability of the coming election, it is the shadow of Fico that looms largest. And in Brussels, there is some consternation. In a recent interview, Fico repeated the Russian narrative about the causes of the Ukraine war, including Putin’s unsupported claim that the Ukrainian government runs a Nazi state from which ethnic Russians living in the country’s east needed protection. He also said that no further arms or ammunition would be sent to Ukraine if Smer is part of the government.
“From a European Union perspective, it is very important that all member states are supportive of current economic and military aid to Ukraine. Hungary is the only vocal outlier [but] with elections coming in Poland and Slovakia, there may be more of that kind,” said Dr Ilke Toygür, senior associate with the Europe, Russia and Eurasia programme at the US-based CSIS thinktank. “Slovakia is a small country … but it can still have an impact on European decisions that require unanimity.”
More practically, Slovakia’s good roads and railways are important for Nato supplies heading to Kyiv, and a crucial gas pipeline runs across its fields and mountains to Kyiv.
In Bratislava, others have more immediate concerns.
At the offices of the Inakost initiative, which campaigns for LGBTQ+ rights in Slovakia and offers counselling, there are fears of hard times ahead. Previous Smer governments brought in a series of regressive laws, and a year ago two people were shot dead outside a popular bar in Bratislava by a rightwing extremist in an explicitly homophobic attack.
Michaela Dénešová, the deputy head of Inakost, said she was “shocked but not surprised” by how the issue of LBGTQ+ rights had been exploited by some politicians.
“It’s always been an issue in politics in Slovakia [and] LGBTQI people have long been a scapegoat,” Dénešová said. “It is escalating right now … We are hoping for the best but expecting the worst. Voters are unpredictable but personally I do not expect something better.”
There are many causes for optimism, however. Dénešová stressed that younger people were “much more open” and “more and more people agree that the LGBTQI community suffer discrimination here”.
And even if Fico’s Smer comes first in the polls, it may not be able to form a government and any administration faces an array of constraints to policymaking. Any radical attempt to reorientate Slovakia eastwards or impose an authoritarian regime would be likely to fail, most observers say.
“Slovakia has had real ups and downs since the 1990s but whenever it has got really bad, the majority has always stood up,” Hajdu, the analyst, said.
“We have had our ups and downs, but whenever it has looked really bad, the people have stood up and stood their ground.”
• This article was amended on 27 September 2023. It was a coalition of rightwing and centrist parties that won power in 2020, not of leftwing and centrist parties.
