A squadron of six Chinese Chengdu J-10 jets took off towards an overcast sky in front of thousands of spectators at an airfield in southern China’s coastal city of Zhuhai in mid-November.
Flying low in a close V-shaped formation, the jets circled back and as they approached a cluster of buildings near the spectators, trails of red, blue, yellow and white smoke suddenly poured from each plane, bringing a cheer from onlookers that was almost as loud as the roar from the warplanes’ engines.
Seconds later, the J-10s broke their close formation to show off a series of even more impressive acrobatic manoeuvres.
But the aerial show by the seasoned pilots was far from the only demonstration of prowess at the China International Aviation & Aerospace Exhibition, better known as Airshow China or the Zhuhai Airshow, which is held biennially and named after the city in southern China where it is held.
A wide array of new equipment and aircraft available to the Chinese military – known as the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) – was unveiled for the first time at the airshow, held from November 12 to 17. This included an updated version of the Harbin Z-20 helicopter and the long-awaited J-35A stealth fighter while the newest Russian stealth warplane, the Su-57, also took to the skies over Zhuhai in its first appearance outside Russia.
According to Chinese state media, the event attracted nearly 600,000 visitors and resulted in deals worth $38.7bn.
Aside from the business aspect, the airshow serves a clear purpose of showcasing China’s advances in aviation, said Peter Layton, defence and aviation expert at the Griffith Asia Institute in Australia. “It is about demonstrating the sophistication and scale of PLA airpower,” he told Al Jazeera.
But for a better sense of China’s innovation in airpower, Layton did not look to the acrobatic feats of the J-10s or even the unveiling of the new stealthy J-35A.
“People like fast jets, loud noise and daring pilots, and the J-35 was the big news announced, but this is actually old news, having been a very long time in development,” he said.
Instead, Layton looked for advancements in aviation software and drone technology which will define the future of aerial combat.
AI, drones to dominate the skies of the future
For the next generation of fighter aircraft, military developers and researchers across the world are working on providing pilots with enhanced weapons systems and stealth capabilities that can be comprehensively integrated with artificial intelligence (AI) and machine learning.
Experts predict the use of AI will especially boost the data processing of a fighter jet, which will greatly improve a pilot’s overview of the battlespace in which they are operating. Whoever is able to carry out the integration of AI and piloting skills most effectively will be in a strong position to dominate the skies.
They say essential in this future setup will be one or several drones operating as “loyal wingmen” that can work with fighter pilots in combat by assisting as “a sensor, a shooter, a weapons carrier and cost reducer”.
The war in Ukraine has already demonstrated the transformative effects of drones in combat zones. Thousands of them have been used not just as remotely flown bombs but also to track enemy movements and guide artillery strikes.
But no military has fully developed aircraft with the capability to operate jointly with drones, and the Chinese military most likely will not have a fully developed model in the skies until well into the 2030s, according to Layton.
The closest the Chinese military currently is to such an aircraft is the J-20S, which was on display in the form of a scale model at Zhuhai.
According to Chinese state media, the J-20S is a two-seater fighter jet which allows the second pilot to be in charge of collaborating between the jet and a wingman drone that would act as a sensor or a weapon launcher.
The FH-97A drone, which can carry out air defence suppression, conduct close-in reconnaissance and engage in interference tasks, is one example of a loyal wingman drone, and it was on display at the airshow in 2022.
Working in tandem with a jet and powered by AI, such capabilities could enable a wingman drone to paralyse enemy air systems and allow the fighter pilot to penetrate enemy defences.
That and other drone systems will be essential in future aerial combat, Layton said.
In Zhuhai, the Chinese military unveiled a new heavy drone, nicknamed the “swarm carrier” because of its ability to not only carry a payload of missiles and bombs but also other smaller drones as well.
‘A mirror image response’
According to Layton, Chinese developments in airpower today are closely linked with Beijing’s strategic competition with the United States.
“And a lot of developments are a mirror image response to American developments,” he said.
Layton pointed to the Chinese J-35, whose name is similar to the US fighter F-35, both being fifth-generation jets.
While aircraft such as the J-35 and the J-20S might be tied to competition when it comes to the US, for Taiwan they are far more concerning, according to Shu Hsiao-Huang, a research fellow at the Taiwan defence think tank INDSR.
“China is accelerating the upgrading of its air force and has many creative ideas in the development of drones, which will cause difficulties for neighbouring countries,” Shu told Al Jazeera.
Not only is Taiwan a neighbour to China, but the Chinese government regards the self-ruled island as an inseparable part of China and has promised to bring the island under its control.
While the majority of countries in the United Nations do not recognise Taiwan as a sovereign state, member states do maintain favourable relations with Taipei, including the US, the United Kingdom and Australia.
The US, which switched diplomatic recognition from Taipei to Beijing in 1979, remains Taiwan’s most important partner and its largest supplier of weapons, which has resulted in strong condemnation from China.
Shu said Taiwan needs to pay attention to aerial advancements and breakthroughs achieved by the Chinese military, like those displayed at the airshow in November.
“This Zhuhai airshow was a big warning for Taiwan,” he said.
“The development of China’s fighter jets, advanced drones and other unmanned systems will pose a great challenge to Taiwan’s air defences,” he said.
To be able to keep up with China’s advancements in its air force, Taiwan will need to replace its ageing aircraft, improve ground-based air radar detection capabilities, develop new missile defences, and adopt advanced asymmetric military capabilities, according to Shu.
“But Taiwan’s progress in this regard is still very slow,” he said, adding, “Which is very worrying.”
