England’s top doctor has warned the equivalent of half the country’s population will be attending emergency departments every year within a decade unless more work is done to move healthcare out of hospitals.
NHS national medical director Professor Sir Stephen Powis said if the health system wants to avoid a situation of overcrowded A&Es by 2034 then it “must go for broke” by moving more care into communities.
A&Es in England faced the busiest year on record in 2024, with 27.42 million attendances across the year, 7.1 per cent higher than in 2023, according to NHS England.
Over the past two months, a surge in winter illnesses have pushed hospitals around the country to crisis point and beyond, with many trusts declaring critical incidents earlier this month in a bid to cope with the rise in demand in emergency departments.
Many hospitals were forced to care for patients in any available space including store rooms and carparks, and healthcare professionals across England urged the government and NHS to take action on corridor care, which they said had become “normalised” in hospitals all over the country.
In a speech at Liverpool Medical Institution on Wednesday evening, Professor Powis said caring for more patients outside of hospitals was key to reducing pressure on accident and emergency departments long term.
“Because we know that if A&E attendances increase at the same rate as they have over the past 10 years – NHS staff will need to manage six million more A&E attendances every year from 2034,” he is expected to say.
“That would mean the equivalent of almost half the population attend A&E at least once every year – that is simply not feasible for a 21st-century health system.
“If the NHS is to avoid a situation of overcrowded A&Es in 10 years’ time – we must go for broke in moving care from hospital to the community.”
Professor Powis will urge the medical students, doctors and retired professionals attending the speech to tell the NHS what is working and what is not so it can improve the health system in the 10-year health plan.
Health secretary Wes Streeting has also invited patients and NHS staff to take part in a “national conversation” to shape the plan, a central plank of Labour’s health policy.
The party has pledged to build “an NHS fit for the future”, with a greater emphasis on preventing ill health, shifting care from hospitals to the community and harnessing the latest technology to improve care.
Mr Streeting acknowledged last week that patients were being “let down” by corridor care, but admitted the problems in A&E were unlikely to be fixed by next winter.
“It will take time to undo the damage that has been done to our NHS,” he said.
In December, more than 54,000 patients in England waited more than 12 hours for admission to a bed, while research shows that patients who spend more than 12 hours in A&E are twice as likely to die within 30 days as those dealt with within two hours.
The Royal College of Emergency Medicine said that report should be a “watershed moment” and a “line in the sand” on corridor care. This week, the Royal College of Physicians warned corridor care had gone from being unheard of to “a daily feature of life” and urged the government and NHS to eliminate the practice.
With additional reporting from PA
