It took only a handful of throws for us to realize two undeniable truths about the Atlanta Falcons’ Michael Penix Jr. era.
The first: Moving to Penix doesn’t feel ridiculous when considering his readiness. He was poised in his first NFL start, compiling a library of throws that doesn’t come close to being reflected in a mediocre stat line (18-of-27, 202 yards, 0 TDs, 1 INT).
The second: Unless the Falcons change who they are around Penix, the team is going to continue having issues realizing its potential.
We alluded to this in a column written after Kirk Cousins was first benched. Cousins was the gravel under the bus tire of an operation that, a few years ago, began stockpiling exciting young offensive players via the draft and finger pointing one coach and quarterback after the next when the team did not resemble the Year 1 Mike McDaniel Miami Dolphins (even though, oddly enough, the Falcons were right behind Miami that year in explosive plays). What we imagine a combination of Kyle Pitts, Drake London and Bijan Robinson to be will never match the on-field reality. That is the narrative curse of GM Terry Fontenot's aggressive, headline-grabbing drafts.
At the very least, if Penix plays the way he did in a 34–7 win against the New York Giants on Sunday—a curious hypothetical, given that almost no NFL team is as bad as the Giants—he can make more sense of an offense that can more consistently hold serve as the defense comes around.
The good
Penix is incredibly strong. He was pressured 14 times but didn’t take a sack. Most of that was due to evasiveness, though he was literally in the grasp of defenders but had the body control and the wherewithal to get rid of the ball without triggering an intentional grounding.
Penix may be the strongest physically of the rookie QBs. Can already shrug off sacks and avoid big losses/not get hit with an intentional grounding. pic.twitter.com/6h91FklewI
— Conor Orr (@ConorOrr) December 23, 2024
Penix’s first throw—and five of his first nine throws—resulted in a drop. His first passing play was the first play of the game, and I feel like it was a significant one for offensive coordinator Zac Robinson. Penix was in the pistol and ran a bootleg off play-action to Bijan Robinson. Cousins ended up outside the pocket on just 4% of his dropbacks this year, which means opponents were not used to seeing the Falcons with a quarterback extending the play or changing his sightline with movement.
Despite the fact that Ray-Ray McCloud III dropped that first ball, Penix appeared to be on his second option and was getting drilled as he released it.
He has no fear of contact. Penix’s first completion was to London on a third down later on in that drive. He delivered a missile over the middle of the field and hit London perfectly in stride, despite the fact that the pocket was closing in on him. On the first time New York ran a secondary blitz, on his third series, he didn’t even move off his mark in the backfield and fired a completion to London. I would say this perceived lack of urgency could come back to haunt him, but after the Saturday games and the first window of the Sunday games, Penix’s 2.47-second snap-to-throw time led the league. He was quicker out with the ball than Patrick Mahomes and just a few tenths of a second behind the time-to-throw god, Tua Tagovailoa.
Penix’s throwing motion is interesting because he has that pronounced cockback. On a big gain to Darnell Mooney just before halftime, I noticed cornerback Deonte Banks immediately start to react toward the ball when he saw Penix’s arm coming back, but the follow through was so fast and the ball speed was so great that he couldn’t possibly close in time.
On Penix’s third drive, we saw my favorite throw in his arsenal and one I think is going to frustrate opponents to no end: a play-action give to his right and a cross-body throw on a deeper out, also to his right. This is the first time we’re mentioning that Penix is a left-handed quarterback, which is good for my sanity. The main reason it doesn’t seem to matter? He is incredibly strong and can drive balls to any area of the field. Being able to hit Mooney on the sideline on that throw was one of the main reasons Atlanta fell in love with his game.
Penix's ability to throw cross-body to the far sideline was on display this preseason. It's such a great tool in his belt. pic.twitter.com/O1rHS3Itxj
— Conor Orr (@ConorOrr) December 23, 2024
In this game alone, London had a ball that was knocked out of his paws on a nicely thrown fade, Pitts coughed up a ball in the end zone for an interception and Bijan Robinson was dragged down on a swing pass just short of the goal line (which came on the same drive as the London pass breakup). There’s easily a world where his debut start could’ve resulted in two touchdowns and no interceptions.
The questions
Penix only had two “ew” throws in my book. The first was a very late checkdown to Bijan Robinson that put Robinson in a bad spot and was way behind the line of scrimmage. The second was in the fourth quarter on a throw to Mooney with 6:11 to play that, I felt, could have been low-hanging fruit for a pick-six against a better defense.
One of two breath-holding throws Penix made on Sunday. Otherwise remarkably quick (fastest snap to throw time of the early window) with some serious juice. pic.twitter.com/qwMctkmcq3
— Conor Orr (@ConorOrr) December 23, 2024
When I interviewed Penix for our SI cover story on the non–Caleb Williams quarterbacks in the 2024 draft class, he talked a lot about how he could take over games in high school because of his athletic ability. The offense had just a handful of plays and, even during his collegiate time at Indiana, his best chance of success was to drop back and simply create.
Throughout his time at Indiana and Washington, he put an incredible amount of work into becoming more of a surgeon and weaponizing his big arm talent (I’ve always guessed it was because of his myriad injuries). There’s a great anecdote about his on-field awareness in the piece and how he diagnosed a defender’s movements over the course of two games for a massive touchdown.
Penix’s first run of this game came on a second-and-14 in the second quarter. He wisely slid as two defenders closed in on him. A few drives before that, Penix opted not to run on a third down and was yanked down from behind by Kayvon Thibodeaux.
This is a long preamble to say that Penix reminded me a lot of Matthew Stafford in this game, which is great. But he can also add more to the equation as a runner. The sheer dynamic of Penix being on the field changed the way the Giants had to play Bijan Robinson and respect the play-action, which had become utterly worthless with Cousins under center.
The one ingredient that could turn the Falcons into the team of our imagination is being a team that can consistently change the math for defenses. This was not, by any stretch, an offense that seemed to have an interest in exploring zone read.
Parting thoughts
Let’s offer appropriate, measured praise for Penix, who played against a team in absolute shambles Sunday. It’s worth noting that Bijan Robinson was fantastic after first contact (and also the Giants are one of the worst teams in preventing yards after first contact). London, too, was good at creating additional yardage, though we can credit Penix for getting him the ball with room to run.
It’s also important to note that, because the Giants threw two pick-sixes and lost a fumble in their own territory, it was a relatively low-stress game for Penix in terms of what he was asked to do. He had one end-of-half, two-minute style drive that resulted in the Pitts drop that became an interception, though I felt like offensive coordinator Zac Robinson waited a while to let Penix start cooking on that short-window opportunity (the Falcons ran the ball on first and second down because they had all three timeouts). The stakes rose dramatically after the Tampa Bay Buccaneers lost a puzzling game to the Dallas Cowboys, thrusting Atlanta right back into the NFC South lead. Both teams are 8–7, but Atlanta swept the Buccaneers with Kirk Cousins and holds the tiebreaker.
Still, any negative in terms of what we did not see has to be counterbalanced by the idea that there is a lot of good we did not see either. Life is going to be more difficult for Penix, but Penix displayed the blueprint Sunday for an incredibly high ceiling.
This article was originally published on www.si.com as A Detailed Breakdown of Michael Penix Jr.’s First Start Shows Plenty to Be Excited About.
