Control of the House and Senate is still not yet known. Either party needs to win two of three of the remaining competitive seats to win control of the Senate. And it could all come down to a Georgia runoff next month.
Republicans are still on a path to win control of the House, but by smaller margins than they were hoping. Democrats have a longshot chance of retaining control, but they would need some races where Republicans are leading to shift in their favor for that to happen.
Follow live updates and results from the 2022 midterm election here.
Here's where things stand, by the numbers (as of Thursday, 1:30 p.m. ET):
The Senate: Republicans 48, Democrats 46, Independents 2, Uncalled 4
Democrats are +1 with their flip of the Pennsylvania Senate race. That means Republicans need to hold on in Nevada, where they are leading, and flip either Arizona, which has not yet been called, or Georgia next month.
To hold the Senate, Democrats would need to hold on in Arizona, where they are leading, and either make up ground in Nevada, which is possible, or win next month's Georgia runoff.
What's left:
- Georgia: Incumbent Raphael Warnock (D) and Republican challenger Herschel Walker (R) are headed to a Dec. 6 runoff because neither surpassed 50% on the ballot. There is now 99% in in that race, and Warnock missed the threshold by just under 23,000 votes. There were more than 3.9 million total votes cast.
- Arizona: Incumbent Mark Kelly (D) leads Republican challenger Blake Masters (R) 51% to 46% with 70% of the vote in. Democrats feel optimistic that Kelly will hold on and that there isn't enough outstanding vote for Masters to close the entire 95,000-vote gap, though they believe it will tighten significantly. Arizona's largest county, Maricopa isn't expected to finish counting until Friday. An automatic recount would get triggered if the margin is within 0.5 percentage points.
- Nevada: Adam Laxalt (R) leads incumbent Catherine Cortez Masto (D) by now less than 2 percentage points, or less than 16,000 votes, with 83% of the voting in. That is tighter than last night, when Laxalt was ahead by 3 points. There could be even further tightening with a potential path to a lead for Cortez Masto, depending on how Democrats do in the unspecified number of drop box votes that are still uncounted. Pro-Democratic union organizers were encouraging their members to use drop boxes. But it's not clear how the remaining votes that are out will break. Nevada is also accepting mail-in votes postmarked by Election Day and received up to Saturday at 5 p.m. local time.
- Alaska: This is not a seat that would be a flip, because both candidates are Republicans. Incumbent Lisa Murkowski trails Kelly Tshibaka by less than 2 percentage points, or just over 3,000 votes, with 80% in. A lot will change. If neither candidate gets above 50%, this goes to a ranked-choice re-tabulation Nov. 23, and Murkowski would likely be favored to win that, as the Democrat in the race got 9.5% of the vote, or more than 20,000 votes. Another Republican got about 3%, or about 6,000 votes.
The House: Republicans 209, Democrats 186, Uncalled 40
For control of the House, either party needs to reach 218 seats. Republicans need to win 9 more for control, or 23% of the remaining uncalled seats. Since last night, five races called and Democrats have won three of them. When all is said and done, Republicans will need a net gain of 5 seats to take control, but likely, at this point, are on track for an estimated range of 7 to 11 Republican pickups.
That would give Republicans just a 2- to 6-seat majority.
But there are still 9 close races we are watching, where the party that holds the seat continues to lead. If that changes, the estimate would change as well. Democrats are defending seven of those.
The math:
Republicans have officially flipped 13 competitive seats, according to the Associate Press, and are leading in 4 others for a total of 17.
Democrats have flipped 6 and are leading in 4 others for a total of 10.
NOTE: Please keep in mind that these numbers are fluid and will change as votes continue to roll in.
