Reported plans for the US House speaker, Nancy Pelosi, to visit Taiwan could spark one of the most perilous moments in cross-strait relations for decades, analysts have warned.
Pelosi’s visit has not been confirmed but there is speculation it could occur in the coming weeks. She would be the highest-ranked US official to visit since Newt Gingrich in 1997.
China has warned that a visit by Pelosi would have “consequences”.
“I think the Chinese have to do more than they did in 1997 – Xi Jinping can’t be seen as weak on this,” said Bonnie S Glaser, director of the Asia programme at the German Marshall Fund thinktank. “It’s a very dangerous moment. I think few people actually realise how dangerous this is.”
The Chinese government and military strongly object to all foreign visits or expressions of support for Taiwan, and the heightened reaction to a visit by Pelosi – a longtime critic of the Chinese government – has sparked serious concern.
China’s Communist party (CCP) government claims that democratically self-ruled Taiwan is a breakaway province which must be “reunited” with the mainland, ideally peacefully but by force if necessary.
Last week the US president, Joe Biden, said his understanding was that the US military did not want Pelosi to visit. Pelosi speculated there were concerns her plane may be shot down.
Such drastic military action by China is not considered likely, but on Tuesday China’s defence ministry said it would “not sit idly by”. It threatened “strong measures” in order to “thwart any external interference and ‘Taiwan independence’ separatist attempts”, state media said.
Hu Xijin, a nationalistic Chinese commentator and former editor of the state-backed paper the Global Times, has speculated that China’s People’s Liberation Army (PLA) could send jets over the island of Taiwan for the first time since the civil war ended in 1949. Such an act would mark a major escalation from the hundreds of sorties made into Taiwan’s air defence identification zone – but not its sovereign airspace – in recent years.
Glaser said Taiwan would be forced to scramble jets in response, adding “there’s always potential for an accident, but even if there’s not, the Chinese are demonstrating they can fly over Taiwan with impunity, because Taiwan is not going to fire on them”.
Analysts said the US administration’s response to the plans and China’s reaction meant it was difficult to de-escalate the situation without either China or the US appearing weak.
In Taiwan, the visit and surrounding drama has drawn days of headlines, with widespread support for Pelosi’s visit and close focus on the comments of US politicians. Some commentators and citizens urged the US not to back down in the face of China’s threats, while others predicted Pelosi could be a precursor to the US defence secretary or secretary of state one day making the same trip.
The furore comes as Taiwan holds large-scale defence exercises, including air-raid drills in major cities that ordered millions of residents to shelter in place as sirens wailed. On Tuesday, Taiwan’s president, Tsai Ing-wen, inspected live-fire military exercises on the coast, amid efforts to boost defences and reassure the population of their capabilities.
Speaking during the exercises, the defence ministry spokesperson, Sun Li-fang, said Taiwan was monitoring movements of Chinese warships and aircraft around the island, some of which were detected near Taiwan’s south-east. The drills occur annually and are unrelated to the current tensions over Pelosi’s visit.
“Now is a very sensitive time,” said Chen Shin-min, a political scientist at the National Taiwan University, citing the forthcoming political conclave at Beidaihe – where CCP elders will pass judgment on Xi’s leadership – as well as the anniversary of the PLA and the crucial CCP congress later in the year when Xi will seek a third term.
“If Pelosi visits Taiwan, Xi Jinping will be criticised by other people who may not want him to continue to be the leader of China,” said Chen, who specialises in international security and the Chinese military.”
“In this situation it’s dangerous for Taiwan … Xi Jinping may want to use external activities, for example [to] attack Taiwan, [to increase] China’s nationalistic sentiment,” he said, adding that an attack was unlikely because China would probably lose as long as the US was involved.
However, cancelling a visit carries its own risks, in Chen’s view. “[That] would lead Taiwan to question the credibility of America’s security commitment. Right now there is not a war, [but] if mainland China can use its language to influence America’s decision, how can Taiwan trust America’s security commitment? For Taiwan, this is a very big problem.”
Publicly, Taiwanese officials including the president have warmly welcomed visits by foreign delegations. The Democratic Progressive party (DPP) and foreign affairs committee member Wang Ting-yu tweeted encouragement at Mike Pompeo’s claim he would gladly join Pelosi on her trip.
Privately, the Guardian understands there is some concern in government circles that US actions – specifically Biden’s most recent comments in Tokyo that the US would defend Taiwan – are potentially provocative at a time when Taiwan wishes to maintain the safety of the status quo.
The US has not formally confirmed whether it would come to Taiwan’s aid militarily in the event of a Chinese attack, but Biden has repeatedly suggested otherwise. While his language has sparked confusion, referring to “obligations” and “commitments” that do not exist in policy, many analysts believe it is a signal that under his presidency the US would provide military support.
The US provides Taiwan with weapons to defend itself, under legislated commitments to the island. As China grows more isolated on the world stage, and more belligerent towards Taiwan, other nations including Australia and Japan have increased their support for Taiwan.
At the Ketagalan Indo-Pacific forum in Taipei on Tuesday, Tsai called for a more coordinated global response to authoritarian regimes that “threaten to upend the regional balance”. She said: “I want to make clear that the Taiwanese people are committed to defending our country, upholding our democratic way of life and maintaining regional security and stability.”
Additional reporting by Chi Hui Lin
