It appears on the surface like the San Francisco 49ers hunt for an NFC West title is over following a second consecutive blowout loss in Week 13.
The Buffalo Bills annihilated the 49ers 35-10 at Highmark Stadium just one week after the Green Bay Packers thumped them 38-10. Those two losses were preceded by a loss to the Seattle Seahawks, and after 12 games the 49ers are at 5-7 and alone in last place in the NFC West.
As the injuries pile up alongside the losses, it’s hard to believe there’s any real chance the 49ers find a way to win the NFC West for a third consecutive season. Alas, there is a chance.
The 49ers could win out and finish 10-7 while the other clubs stumble down the stretch to worse finishes. San Francisco could even lose one of their final five to finish 9-8 while the rest of the division dukes it out to 8-9 finishes or worse.
But what if they wind up tied?
Here are a couple of different ways that could look:
San Francisco 49ers (5-7)
Week 14 vs. Chicago Bears: Win
Week 15 vs. Los Angeles Rams: Win
Week 16 at Miami Dolphins: Win
Week 17 vs. Detroit Lions: Loss
Week 18 at Arizona Cardinals: Win
Record: (9-8)
Note: We can flip the Dolphins and Lions games and this still works.
Seattle Seahawks (7-5)
Week 14 at Arizona Cardinals: Loss
Week 15 vs. Green Bay Packers: Loss
Week 16 vs. Minnesota Vikings: Win
Week 17 at Chicago Bears: Win
Week 18 at Los Angeles Rams: Loss
Record: (9-8)
Note: The key for San Francisco is that the Seahawks lose to Arizona and then two of their final four.
Arizona Cardinals (6-6)
Week 14 vs. Seattle Seahawks: Win
Week 15 vs. New England Patriots: Win
Week 16 at Carolina Panthers: Win
Week 17 at Los Angeles Rams: Loss
Week 18 vs. San Francisco 49ers: Loss
Record: (9-8)
Note: The 49ers just need Arizona to beat Seattle. The rest of them don’t matter.
Los Angeles Rams (6-6)
Week 14 vs. Buffalo Bills: Loss
Week 15 at San Francisco 49ers: Loss
Week 16 at New York Jets: Loss
Week 17 vs. Arizona Cardinals: Win
Week 18 vs. Seattle Seahawks: Win
Record: (8-9)
Note: San Francisco needs the Rams to win those last two NFC West games unless Seattle stumbles and drops two against the NFC North. Then a Seahawks win over the Rams in Week 18 doesn’t affect much.
In this above situation, the 49ers would win the three-way tiebreaker with the Cardinals and Seahawks because they’d own a 6-6 record in the conference. The three-way tiebreakers in the NFL start at head-to-head matchups, but all the teams split their division games, which also eliminates the division record tiebreaker. They also have the same record in common games with each team landing at 5-5 in their common matchups.
That turns the tiebreaker to conference record where the 49ers would somehow have an edge. San Francisco in this scenario would finish 6-6 against NFC teams, while the Rams and Seahawks would both wrap up at 5-7, lifting the 49ers over both to a home playoff game on wild card weekend as the NFC West champions.
This scenario also works if one of the Seahawks or Cardinals lose an additional game or two and land at 8-9 or worse. San Francisco would still hold tiebreakers over both clubs in a two-team tiebreaker battle.
What about a 4-way tie?
If the Seahawks lose to both the Packers and Vikings, then beat the Rams in Week 18, while the Rams earned victories over the Bills in Week 14 and Jets in Week 16, it would give the 49ers a division win in a four-way tie.
Alas, these scenarios are hyper-specific with not a lot of wiggle room because of the tiebreakers. Still, there’s a modicum of hope for the optimists looking for something to cling to entering Week 14.
