Few single-time champions get their names added into the all-time annals. Win one, and it’s a unique joy for everyone, but it’s forgotten almost just as quickly. Win two, and you’re exhausted. Driven mad by a sense of relief, but also, oddly, you feel euphoric and accomplished. Win three or more, and they make movies about you. You go on Saturday Night Live. You meet multiple Presidents. You pass the Non-Sports Friend test where you’re a common enough pillar of culture that someone who doesn’t even pay attention to football still knows who you are or of you.
The Pat Mahomes-Andy Reid Chiefs have unquestionably been the NFL’s best team over the last half-decade. 48 regular-season wins and eight playoff victories in four years. Countless thrills and exciting last-minute comebacks. An intimidating monolith of a football team that may as well have its own aura as an accompaniment every time it hits the field.
Come Sunday, when the Chiefs host the Bengals in the AFC Championship Game (-7.5 favorites to advance to Super Bowl LVI, according to Tipico Sportsbook), they will officially become the first team ever to host four straight conference title games.
Not Lombardi’s Packers.
Not Landry’s Cowboys.
Not Walsh’s 49ers.
Not even Belichick’s Patriots.
Reid’s Chiefs stand alone.
But those legendary squads of yore have something valuable these Final Four-tested Chiefs do not: Multiple Super Bowl victories.
Until they do, the thrills they provide will mean squat to anyone looking back fondly upon this era of football years from now. You climb the mountain and back, and back again, or you are merely another regular champion.
Here’s why the Chiefs will be lifting the Lombardi Trophy again two weeks from now.
How they got here
I’m going to say “it,” and I’m going to hate myself for saying “it,” but “it’s” the truth, and “it” has to be said:
The Chiefs have an on and off switch.
Oh, goodness. (Vomits)
At this stage of their run with Pat Mahomes, nothing the Chiefs achieve in the regular season has any consequences aside from seeding. They know it. We know it. The greater football pantheon knows it.
When it comes to those early games that have become a preseason default with a few losses? Kansas City doesn’t panic. It isn’t much of a concern if they start slow. This year, they started 3-4, with losses to the upstart Chargers and the team they barely conquered a week ago in the Buffalo Bills. They had no offensive rhythm. They were getting gashed on defense up and down Arrowhead Stadium and every other field they had to visit.
Yet, somehow, here they are in the AFC title game. Again. Here they are, the current favorite to win it all (+125 to win the Super Bowl, according to Tipico). Again. That slow 3-4 start where they looked like they might, for a second, miss the playoffs? It never happened. Ancient history.
What separates the Chiefs and a quarterback like Mahomes from their opponents is knowing when to turn on the jets. When they have to win a game, as opposed to it being a nice boost in the standings, nothing more, they’re pulling out all the stops. They’re going no-holds-barred.
A Sunday Night Football litmus test on the road against a division rival and the fellow playoff team Raiders in early November? A 41-14 drubbing, courtesy of Kansas City.
A month later, again in primetime, this time on a glorious Thursday night in Los Angeles against the upstart Chargers, for sole possession of first place in the AFC West? A 34-28 overtime victory where Mahomes threw three touchdowns in the final approximate eight minutes to lift the Chiefs over the top.
With fellow titan Buffalo coming in seeking playoff redemption, and the Bills even managing to be on the precipice of eliminating the Chiefs with 59:47 minutes of game time elapsed?
MAHOMES TO KELCE.
THE @CHIEFS WIN THE GAME OF THE YEAR! #NFLPlayoffs #ChiefsKingdom pic.twitter.com/9eM2Ur15O0
— NFL (@NFL) January 24, 2022
The Chiefs still, somehow, someway, won.
Only a few teams in NFL history have this uncanny, killer instinct.
Lombardi’s Packers, Landry’s Cowboys, Walsh’s 49ers, Belichick’s Patriots, to name them. Be it thanks to their already transcendent quarterback, or their coach, or both; these Chiefs have it, too. They never say die.
Get them on the ropes, and that is where they thrive.
How they’ll win the Super Bowl
To be sincere, I could make every word of this article read “Patrick Mahomes” over and over and over. He’s the best quarterback alive and already an all-time great. He’s in an ideal system, masterminded by Andy Reid, which is now third nature to him. He’s got two future Hall of Fame (at this rate) pass targets in Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce. And a year after getting pummeled in front of the entire country for the Super Bowl behind an injured makeshift offensive line, he’s got a thick castle wall of men protecting him every time he drops back to pass.
Despite their early struggles and that slow start, Kansas City’s offense was still third in the league in total yardage, third in DVOA efficiency and fourth in scoring. A defense led by Tyrann Mathieu and Chris Jones, downtrodden for a good portion of the season, is first in scoring defense since Week 8. That same defense, led by coordinator Steve Spagnuolo (seeking his fourth Super Bowl ring), was fifth in takeaways with 29.
This paints a picture of a lethal Mahomes offense building an insurmountable lead in bunches, followed by a defense pouncing on a poor attack crumbling under pressure. It’s the ideal set-up for modern football: Your quarterback will erase any defense before him, and your defense slams the door behind you. Case closed. Try again later.
No one finishes like the Mahomes-Chiefs. No one pours on it like they do when they’re in the zone. They’ve got the mark of explosiveness and cohesion.
Try and stomach that rotten meal if you’re the Bengals, Rams, or 49ers. It won’t digest well.
Why they won’t
I would offer a better rationale as to why the Chiefs might end up losing either of the following two football weekends, but I don’t see it happening. I can’t say it.
They are the consummate team of this era of football: Optimized to erase any defense. A quarterback that’s never entirely out of one play or the game. All the confidence and experience in the world in every phase.
Kansas City may not be this year’s defending Super Bowl champion, but they sure as hell carry themselves like they are. There’s a swagger and vibe to their game that every other opponent left cannot match. And that matters in January and February. It might be the only thing that matters this time of year.
I would’ve said initially, “the Chiefs might lose because of Mahomes’ capacity for turnovers.” But after giving the ball away like candy early in the year, he’s only thrown two picks in the last two months and threw a perfect playoff game against the Bills’ No. 1 defense like it was nothing.
I’m supposed to believe any of the Bengals, Rams, or 49ers will stop that red tsunami from hitting shore? Yeah, no chance. Poor luck is genuinely the only outcome that derails this natural disaster.
It’s the Chiefs and the field. Lombardi, Landy, Walsh, and Belichick will soon be so proud. Maybe even a little envious.
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