Russell Wilson is under contract with the Denver Broncos through 2028. But he’s not expected to be playing for them in 2024.
The Broncos benched Wilson prior to their Week 17 showdown with the Los Angeles Chargers. This was, professionally, a matter of performance. Head coach Sean Payton chalked the move up to maximizing his team’s slim playoff chances.
But Denver’s replacement is journeyman backup Jarrett Stidham, who has decidedly been lesser than Wilson in his NFL career. Sitting Wilson helps ensure he won’t get hurt ahead of the start of the 2024 league year — a March date in which his $37 million 2025 salary would be guaranteed if he’s on the Broncos’ roster.
Thus, it’s been made clear to the world that Denver’s done with the quarterback for whom it traded three players, two first round picks and two second round picks less than two years ago. Wilson was reportedly told months ago he’d be released next spring, accelerating $85 million in dead salary cap space onto the Broncos’ tab in 2024 and 2025 (assuming he’s designated a post-June 1 release) just to be rid of a Super Bowl-winning quarterback. That’s going to leave a vacuum for a team that will be, once again, in search of someone to lead it back to the playoffs for the first time since 2015.
There are a few avenues Denver can go down in order to replace Wilson. None of them are likely to produce someone better, at least in 2024. But that wasn’t the intention of cutting the former perennial Pro Bowler; 2024 was always going to be a gap year until 2025 thanks to the massive guarantees in Wilson’s contract and how they’ll dictate the team’s future even when he’s not there.
So here’s how Sean Payton can line up his chess pieces with his eye on the future going forward.
1
Sign a veteran quarterback
Without Wilson, the only quarterback under contract for 2024 is Jarrett Stidham. Stidham is a viable backup. He is also 0-2 as a starter with a 73.5 career passer rating. Brock Osweiler’s rating as a Bronco, for comparison, was an 81.0.
He’s not a viable longterm starter, even if that term is only a single season. Fortunately for Denver, there are several veterans who could be. The 2024 free agent class is slated to include:
- Kirk Cousins
- Ryan Tannehill
- Gardner Minshew
- Baker Mayfield
- Jameis Winston
- Tyrod Taylor
- Jacoby Brissett, and more.
Unfortunately for Denver, affording a veteran QB is a different story. Wilson’s contract will accelerate as estimated $55 million in dead money (out of a total $85-plus million) onto the team’s 2024 salary sheet, per Over the Cap’s Jason Fitzgerald. That would be an extra $20 million on his current $35.4 million cap hit for next year. That’s rough — and this is a team that’s already slated to be $18 million over the cap to begin with.
The Broncos will have to shed salary before bringing new faces in. That’s going to take them out of the market for some of the top players out there. But maybe someone like Tannehill would take a one year, $5 million deal in hopes of reviving his career in a new locale. Or maybe all Denver can afford will be Joshua Dobbs.
2
Draft a modest, mid-draft quarterback prospect
2024 has a handful of high level quarterback prospects who’ll be selected at the top of the draft. Barring a trade — which would be a tough manuever given how badly this team needs young players on inexpensive contracts — the Broncos won’t be able to get to the best among them. If the season ended today, Denver would have the 14th overall pick.
The team might slide up to the 10 to 12 range if Stidham slumps. But games against the Chargers and Raiders are each winnable, so it’s possible that pick lands around 15th. This means no chance to draft Caleb Williams or Drake Maye. Reigning Heisman Trophy winner Jayden Daniels may be gone by then as well.
There’s going to be some temptation to reach for someone high profile, but patience would behoove the Broncos. We’ve seen quarterbacks struggle amidst depleted rosters. While Denver isn’t nearly as bad as the Carolina Panthers, there’s a solid chance 2024 would be a real Bryce Young experience for someone selected in the middle of the first round.
Instead, there’s a rich tapestry of good-not-great quarterbacks who should he around on Day 2 and beyond. Michael Penix, Bo Nix, JJ McCarthy or Michael Pratt could slip to the second or third rounds and bring plenty of college experience to their pro games. Guys like Sam Hartman or Spencer Rattler could be low cost pickups to fill out the quarterback room and maybe outgrow their projections en route to a starting role.
That’s not ideal, but it’s sustainable. 2024 is a lost season thanks to the team’s lack of salary cap space. There’s no risk in taking a developmental quarterback, assuming Payton doesn’t throw him into the fire too early and breed bad habits.
3
Lose so, so many games in 2024
This is all in service of securing a valuable, top three draft pick for 2025. That’s the date circled on Payton’s calendar right now; his chance to use premium assets to rebuild the franchise in his image.
There’s a problem, of course. 2024’s quarterback draft class appears to be significantly stronger than the 2025 group. There’s no Caleb Williams/Drake Maye debate at the top of the draft at the edge of the league’s horizon. As things currently stand, it could be one of the infrequent years a non-quarterback goes first overall.
That’s OK! The Broncos are probably good enough, even with a sub-replacement level quarterback, that getting the top overall pick was unrealistic. After starting the season so, so poorly (giving up 70 points vs. the Miami Dolphins), Vance Joseph’s defense has stablized into the top 10 unit we’d expected. Even if that group falls off and Denver plummets to the top of the draft, the team can always auction off that pick for extra selections needed to beef up its offensive line and whatever holes may arise on the other side of the ball.
Who’d fit the bill for Payton? There’s reason to believe he could turn a mid-tier draft prospect into a valuable piece of a winning team — that’s what he did with former second-round pick Drew Brees after the San Diego Chargers decided they were done with him. Could he keep Shedeur Sanders in-state and make him a legend in orange? How about Penn State’s Drew Allar or Texas A&M’s Conner Weigman? Or, hey, how about a prolific 5-foot-11 college quarterback like Dillon Gabriel?
Options abound. None are guaranteed hits, but each will have a higher ceiling than whomever the Broncos land behind center in 2024.
4
Use the money saved by canning Wilson and a rookie contract QB to rebuild the roster with veterans
Over The Cap pegs the Broncos’ estimated 2025 salary cap space — without Wilson’s scheduled $55.4 million cap hit but including the $32 million in dead space carried over from 2024 — at roughly $129 million. As is, that’s a top 10 cap figure that can get even better with restructured contracts and the release of low-impact veterans.
That’s enough money to lock Patrick Surtain II and Quinn Meinerz into lucrative long term deals. It’s also enough to throw at a marketplace where guys like Jedrick Wills, Ja’Marr Chase, Rashawn Slater, Penei Sewell, Justin Jefferson, Tristan Wirfs and Micah Parsons probably *won’t* hit free agency but others like AJ Terrell, Brandon Aiyuk, Ernest Jones, Alim McNeill, Christian Darrisaw and Kyle Pitts *might.*
2024’s string of cheap, short term deals will keep the runway open for a spending spree on players who fit Payton’s vision. More importantly, they’ll have to be able to lift up whichever young quarterback is playing behind center in 2025.
There’s another wrinkle here as well; a potential free agent quarterback if the draft serves to underwhelm. Passers like Tua Tagovailoa and Trevor Lawrence probably won’t make it to the open market. Justin Fields and Jared Goff may. We don’t know what that lineup’s going to look like and if Payton will be reticent about a reclamation project after getting burned by Wilson. We’ve still gotta consider it, however, given the low-key nature of 2025’s rookie quarterback class.
5
Get back to the playoffs after 10-plus years
Yeah, in this scenario the revival comes three years after benching Wilson. And it may be a best-case situation.
It’s extremely likely whomever is playing quarterback last season will be worse than Wilson, who went 7-8 this year. There isn’t enough money to make the upgrades necessary to keep a bad passer afloat. Maybe Payton works a miracle, but 2024 will be mostly about getting out from under Wilson’s contract.
2025 will belong to either a young, unproven quarterback or a veteran retread made available either via trade or by a team hoping for nothing more than a future compensatory draft pick in return. He’ll have to play in a division that will still have Justin Herbert and Patrick Mahomes piloting two of the other three teams. This year will be all about showing progress and building for the future.
If all goes well, all these foundational pieces will have gelled together by 2026, creating a roster capable of ending a playoff streak that, at his point, has lasted more than a decade. It’s all possible this timeline is way off. Maybe Payton performs a miracle. Maybe he stinks out loud again in 2024 and 2025 and doesn’t get to see 2026, kicking off another arduous rebuild.
But given everything we know so far, this feels like the most prudent path forward. There’s no panacea for what ails the Broncos. It’s going to take patience and vigilance to fix things, especially after the last quick fix — trading for Wilson — only served to set the franchise back several years.
