With over a billion dollars spent in NBA free agency this offseason, there are countless players whose contracts will look very different next season.
While it is hard to predict exactly what each player will do when on the court, there are some deals that look a bit more team-friendly than others right now.
After scanning all of the contracts signed using the HoopsHype salaries pages and then cross-referencing some of the data points with our projected Wins Above Replacement Player model (read more on that), here are some players who could outperform their deals.
1
Austin Reaves
TEAM: Los Angeles Lakers
CONTRACT: $53.8 million / 4 years
PROJECTED IMPACT: 2.34 wins above replacement player
Austin Reaves played a massive role in the success that the Lakers enjoyed during the second half of the season in 2022-23. He was truly a breakout star for Los Angeles.
When he was on the floor alongside LeBron James and Anthony Davis, the team was one of the toughest to beat in the league.
Reaves is able to play both on or off the ball and create for himself or for others. With his versatility on the court, this contract is going to look like a steal at a $13.4 million average annual value.
While it was the maximum he was allowed due to restricted free agency, this is stunning value for someone who will collect only 8.83 percent of the salary cap in 2023-24.
Reaves will represent Team USA at the FIBA World Cup this summer.
2
Herbert Jones
TEAM: New Orleans Pelicans
CONTRACT: $53.8 million / 4 years
PROJECTED IMPACT: 2.08 wins above replacement player
While it is hard to quantify, New Orleans Pelicans wing Herbert Jones is one of the most impactful defenders in the NBA.
The advanced analytics for Jones suggested his defensive metrics last year outperformed big names including Marcus Smart as well as Mikal Bridges, Jimmy Butler and Jrue Holiday.
Jones had the seventh-most deflections of any NBA player last season.
According to ESPN’s Bobby Marks, this contract was actually the most money that New Orleans could offer the former second-round pick once he became a restricted free agent.
Jones, like Reaves, is projected to earn 8.83 percent of the salary cap in 2023-24. That is a tremendous contract for someone who has All-Defense potential as early as next season.
He will scrimmage for the USA Select Team before the FIBA World Cup.
3
Cameron Johnson
TEAM: Brooklyn Nets
CONTRACT: $94,500,000 / 4 years
PROJECTED IMPACT: 8.02 wins above replacement player
Based on the NBA’s latest collective bargaining agreement, there is suddenly a shrinking of the middle class for players around the league. That means that fewer players are signing for
Johnson reportedly turned down a four-year, $72 million offer from the Phoenix Suns last offseason before he was eventually traded to the Nets during the season.
Although he signed for more with the Nets, this is still relatively good value at just 18.9 percent of the salary cap next season (with 15.8 percent of the cap the following season and 13.1 percent the following season).
Among the players who share his position and were signed to a relatively similar average annual value, per EPM, Johnson made the most positive impact — even more so than Jerami Grant, who is projected to earn nearly $10 million more than Johnson each season.
Johnson will represent Team USA at the FIBA World Cup this summer.
4
Tre Jones
TEAM: San Antonio Spurs
CONTRACT: $20 million / 2 years
PROJECTED IMPACT: 6.21 wins above replacement player
While there was some school of thought that San Antonio ought to target a win-now free-agent floor general like Fred VanVleet, the Spurs instead opted to re-sign Tre Jones.
Jones will benefit from playing in the starting lineup alongside Victor Wembanyama. He will likely see a massive uptick in his assists distributing to the No. 1 overall pick.
Since turning pro, according to Cleaning the Glass, Jones has ranked in the 70th percentile or better at his assist-to-usage ratio and in the 80th percentile or better in turnover percentage.
Jones will collect approximately 7.07 percent of the salary cap next season and 7.6 percent the following season, which could become a sneaky good value if he continues his progression as a reliable point guard.
5
Josh Okogie
TEAM: Phoenix Suns
CONTRACT: $5.7 million / 2 years
PROJECTED IMPACT: 1.31 wins above replacement player
While the Suns sacrificed depth and draft capital to trade for Kevin Durant and Bradley Beal, they were able to retain some of their core.
One of the most underrated players on their roster is arguably Josh Okogie.
Take a look at some of the other players who also play his position and signed contracts worth north of $10 million per season. Okogie has a more positive impact than any of them:
Despite his impressive analytics, Okokie is signed to a minimum contract and will receive only 1.48 percent of the salary cap for the Suns next season.
You’re simply not going to find better value on a minimum deal than Okogie, who projects as a member of the starting lineup for a contender in Phoenix.
6
Paul Reed
TEAM: Philadelphia 76ers
CONTRACT: $23.5 million / 3 years
PROJECTED IMPACT: 3.93 wins above replacement player
Thanks to Danny Ainge and the Jazz, Philadelphia’s Paul Reed’s contract turned into one of the most interesting offseason sagas of any in the NBA.
Reed, also known as “BBall Paul” among fans, was eventually retained for an average annual value of approximately $7.8 million. That is a solid value at 5.68 percent of the salary cap for next season.
His steal percentage has ranked in the 98th percentile or better during each of his three professional seasons, via Cleaning the Glass. He is the only big to rank in the 90th percentile or better among players at his position (minimum: 150 minutes) in block and steal percentage last season.
If he can help Embiid player fewer minutes next season and thus find himself healthier during the postseason, Reed is potentially the key to success for the 76ers.
7
Seth Curry
TEAM: Dallas Mavericks
CONTRACT: $8 million / 2 years
PROJECTED IMPACT: 1.01 wins above replacement player
It is fairly surprising to have the last name “Curry” and still find yourself underrated around the NBA.
But somehow, Seth Curry has managed to fly under the radar a bit and is now on a very favorable contract for the Mavericks. Curry has the second-best 3-point percentage (43.7 percent) among all players since 2015-16.
Curry is only projected to earn 3.32 percent of the salary cap next season and that drops to 3.17 percent the following season. That is quite a bargain seeing as how well he helps space the floor.
8
Jevon Carter
TEAM: Chicago Bulls
CONTRACT: $19.5 million / 3 years
PROJECTED IMPACT: 0.46 wins above replacement player
Jevon Carter was able to shoot better than 40.0 percent on 3-pointers last season, and if he is able to do that again, he is going to make a splash for Chicago.
While his shooting is important, it is his defense that will make him earn every penny of his contract. Look at all the players in an NBA rotation 6-foot-2 or shorter from last season and there is a statistical case that Carter was the best defender of the group:
Carter will receive 4.55 percent of the salary cap for the Bulls next season and based on what we have seen from him in the past, he could outperform that rate very easily.
Especially considering it does not seem Lonzo Ball is in the long-term plans for Chicago, this was a great backup plan.
