Boris Johnson faces a crunch weekend for his premiership after an exodus of top Downing Street staff.
A fifth aide quit the Prime Minister’s inner circle, while a Conservative grandee said Mr Johnson had become "toxic".
Staff left over a mixture of Partygate and the Prime Minister’s response to it - when he first denied any parties took place, then lashed out, falsely accusing Keir Starmer of failing to prosecute Jimmy Savile.
While a lack of top aides will leave Boris Johnson vulnerable, it’s his MPs who decide if he will face a leadership contest.
It takes 54 Tory opponents to trigger a vote of no confidence, and No10 has been furiously trying to stop that happening.
A ‘shadow whipping operation’ is led by loyalist Conor Burns, the MP who claimed the PM was “ambushed by a cake”.
And yesterday the PM wrote to restless MPs, promising to set up “backbench policy committees” to hear their concerns.
The problem is, the anger on Tory benches is hard to measure or stop - because there’s not one single faction out to get the PM.
As one MP told the Mirror, the PM has only “transaction friendships” - a situation that’s now left holes all over his armour.
Those calling for the PM to quit are a scrappy assortment of veterans, new MPs, moderates and hardliners.
They were united only by wanting to win in 2019 - and now, many are united only by wanting the Prime Minister out.
Even within each “faction” opinions vary massively - and by no means will all “members” ever call for the PM to quit.
But here’s a very rough look at seven “types” of Tory MP that could spell trouble for the PM.
2019 MPs - including the ‘Red Wall’
More than 100 of Boris Johnson’s 360 MPs were newly-elected in the 2019 landslide.
Many of these were in the ‘Red Wall’ of former Labour heartlands in the Midlands and northern England.
Most feel they owe their job to Boris Johnson due to his crushing election victory - but that loyalty is starting to fray.
A ‘pork pie plot’ of around 20 ‘2019-ers’ - supposedly led by Melton’s MP Alicia Kearns - fizzled out, but could resurge.
Newcastle-under-Lyme MP Aaron Bell suggested the PM treated him like a “fool” after he didn’t hug at his gran’s funeral.
Away from the ‘Red Wall’, Totnes 2019-er Anthony Mangnall put in a letter savaging the PM’s “mistruths”.
Many more 2019-ers, including Chris Loder and Dehenna Davison, were said to be considering ousting the PM but haven’t publicly submitted a letter. If many moved at once, it could nudge them over the 54-letter threshold.
Veterans who’ve nothing to lose
Many of the prominent “topple Boris Johnson” headlines have come from long-serving MPs who dance to their own tune.
Some, like 39-year veteran Sir Roger Gale, never had much love for the Prime Minister and are unlikely to move the dial.
But a drip-drip of other ‘big beasts’ could embolden young MPs nervous about their careers to step over the cliff-edge.
Former ministers Andrew Mitchell, David Davis and Tim Loughton have all turned on the PM, with Mr Davis declaring at PMQs : “In the name of God, go.”
Former Foreign Secretary Sir Malcolm Rifkind is no longer an MP, but yesterday said Mr Johnson is now “toxic”.
Ex-leader William Hague said the PM should be “worried”… and ex-PM Sir John Major is expected to make an intervention soon.
Others who are able to speak their minds
Some MPs have not acquired grandee status, but have been around long enough - and not had ministerial jobs - that they care less about loyalty to the PM.
Andrew Bridgen has submitted no confidence letters in Cameron and May, and now Johnson has joined the club too.
Fellow 2010-er Peter Aldous is no loyalist, campaigning to stop the £20 Universal Credit cut, but no rowdy troublemaker either. He urged the PM to go “in the best interests of the country”.
Sir Gary Streeter, an MP since 1992 though never a minister, also urged the PM to quit because he “cannot reconcile the pain” of Brits with No10 parties.
MPs who speak their minds are dangerous, because - just maybe - it reminds loyalists of what they’re really thinking deep down.
Covid lockdown sceptics and the ‘awkward squad’
The couple of dozen most ardent lockdown sceptics are less of a threat to the PM than they were, now rules are lifted.
But they will keep watch on the Prime Minister and are not afraid to cause him big trouble if they think it’s needed.
The same is true of a string of - often overlapping - Tory pressure groups. The Net Zero Scrutiny Group, for example, boasts lockdown sceptics Craig Mackinlay and Steve Baker and is fighting what it sees as counterproductive green policies.
What’s most notable is that these groups contain more Tory MPs who are unafraid to speak their mind.
Charles Walker, who said he “would applaud” if Boris Johnson resigned, and William Wragg who revealed “blackmail” by Tory whips, were both in ‘awkward squads’ on Covid policy.
One Nation Tories and moderates
Then there are Tory ‘moderates’, including some who chair Commons committees or belong to the formal ‘One Nation’ group.
Committee chairs Tobias Ellwood and Caroline Nokes are among the most prominent to demand the PM’s exit.
While not calling for the PM to quit, Foreign Affairs Committee chief Tom Tugendhat was the first to say he’d run as a new leader.
Yesterday senior Tory Huw Merriman, who chairs the Transport Committee, said he was "deeply troubled" by the situation, and warned Mr Johnson to improve or leave Downing Street.
The One Nation caucus has a few dozen MPs and is led by ex-Cabinet minister Damian Green, who has kept his powder dry.
Jeremy Hunt has not broken ranks either - even though he’s not ruled out running again as leader.
But if other prominent moderates speak out, it would encourage more still.
The irony is that shapeshifter Boris Johnson was once considered a One Nation Tory, but has little affection from them now.
Regional leaders
While they have no direct no-confidence vote, regional leaders have powerful political influence on whether the PM should stay.
West Midlands Mayor Andy Street has refused to say he still backs the PM, and warns he’s “waiting to see” how he’ll act.
Scottish Conservative leader Douglas Ross was one of the first to demand he quit, with ex-leader Ruth Davidson also hitting out.
She was left in tears as she condemned Downing Street parties for “making a mockery” of the public’s sacrifices.
Constituency parties make fewer headlines, but do have a direct line to the MP for their area - dripping through to Westminster.
Some, such as North Oxfordshire, have already written to members in anger. If that was multiplied it would add to the pressure.
Boris Johnson's inner circle
Boris Johnson’s Cabinet was dubbed a circle of “weak yes-men” (and women) by one disgruntled Tory speaking to the Mirror.
But while some (Nadine Dorries) will always defend him to the hilt, others have been a lot less keen to sing the PM’s praises.
Rishi Sunak and Liz Truss are widely seen to be leadership frontrunners. They’ve spent months building up a quiet support base and, while supportive of the PM, phrase that support carefully.
Mr Sunak said he “wouldn’t have said” the Jimmy Savile jibe, adding the Tories would be fiscally responsible “on my watch”.
If one or two top Cabinet ministers resigned, that could be enough in itself to trigger 54 letters and a leadership process.
Then there are No10 staff. If they turn disloyal, they could either leak damaging information - or quit altogether.
Policy adviser Elena Narozanski became the latest No10 official to walk out yesterday, following policy chief Munira Mirza.
Three more aides quit in what No10 claimed was a mutually-agreed Partygate clearout: chief of staff Dan Rosenfield, communications director Jack Doyle and principal private secretary Martin Reynolds.
While the three men appear likely to stay short-term, recruitment for Martin Reynolds’ replacement only began yesterday.
That leaves the Prime Minister open to attack from one ‘faction’, all or none.
As for whether anyone actually makes their move? We’ll just have to wait and see.
