Fans tuned in for another disappointing loss for the New Orleans Saints as they fall to the Cincinnati Bengals 30-26 at home on Sunday. Without their top three wide receiver and No. 1 cornerback, New Orleans actually executed well early. But it was the continued struggles in tackling and uncharacteristic red zone inefficiencies that cost them this game. Here are our key takeaways from the Saints loss to quarterback Joe Burrow and the Bengals:
1
Red zone play was the deciding factor in the Saints loss
Sure, there were injuries to many key players again for the Saints. But they still ran the ball effectively against the NFL’s No. 7 run defense to the tune of 228 rushing yards. The real story of what went wrong for New Orleans in this game was the red zone play.
New Orleans left a total 16 possible points left on the field going 1/5 on red zone trips. That ended up being the major difference in the game. Not turnovers (winning the turnover margin for the first time since Week 1 this season), not penalties that should have been called that weren’t, 16 points short of their potential hurt New Orleans. It doesn’t help that the Bengals went 3/3 on their red zone trips.
The Saints came into this week’s game as the No. 2 red zone defense, allowing touchdowns on only 33.3% of opposing trips. They were also the No. 2 red zone scoring offense, cashing in 80% of their red zone trips for touchdowns. New Orleans uncharacteristically struggled in both categories on Sunday.
2
Andy Dalton didn't do himself any favors in creating QB competition
Before the game began, NFL Network’s Ian Rapoport reported that Dalton has a chance to play himself into a starting role in New Orleans with another good performance. I’m not so sure a 53.1% completion percentage, issues getting plays off the ground, four stalled red zone drives and some turnover-worthy throws was enough to solidify that shot for him.
It would be surprising to see starting quarterback Jameis Winston back in the saddle off the upcoming short week. But whenever he’s healthy and ready to go, it feels like this team will turn back to him. Dalton had a golden opportunity this week with a chance to lead the team down the field and to a win on a two-minute drive but wasn’t able to get it done. That would have gone a long way in his favor despite all else, but right now you’re hard-pressed to find a clear advantage one way or another at quarterback. So going with the highest ceiling may be the best bet.
3
Saints defense must address tackling issues if they want to win
It’s the story for the Saints defense yet again: bad tackling. New Orleans didn’t give up many explosive plays in this game, a positive adjustment from their six allowed for over 32 yards last week against the Seattle Seahawks. The biggest one they gave up came at the biggest moment. With under two minutes left in the game, the Saints defense allowed Bengals receiver Ja’Mar Chase to run free for a 60-yard touchdown.
“There was two missed tackles and a touchdown,” Saints safety Tyrann Mathieu said. “It’s pretty simple.” That may be true, but the defense has continuously made it simple for pass-catchers to pick up yards after contact. If they can’t get it fixed, it’s going to be hard to win games.
4
Rashid Shaheed makes immediate impact
It may not have been the way that was expected, but it was a big premiere for the FCS record-holder. While Shaheed’s addition to the active roster was intended to benefit the term’s need at return specialist, it was a 44-yard touchdown run that was the highlight. Unfortunately, the Saints didn’t utilize him very much on offense aside from a downfield target early in the game.
Not that his special teams contributions should not be considered, however. Even just holding on to the ball is an improvement for New Orleans. Now if he can extend those returns now and then and find more ways to contribute on offense, Shaheed will have a clear role with Deonte Harty sidelined with injury. Beyond that, he could play himself into an expanded role for the future.
5
Demario Davis the lone bright spot on an otherwise dreary day on defense
With 1.5 sacks and a tackle for a loss, Davis was the best player for the defense today. He took on a roughing the passer call thanks to making contact with Burrow’s helmet, but otherwise, he was the best thing going for the Saints defense. While the rest of the team struggled in coverage and to tackle, Davis kept New Orleans in the game the best he could with his performance.
6
Something about postseason odds and average record finish since 1990
Per Stathead from Pro Football Reference, team since 1990 that have started the season 2-4 only have 10.4% chance to make the postseason. Teams that have started this way finish the season with an average 6-10 record. That is of course built off of a 16-game season. But even a 6-11 or 7-10 outlook isn’t great for New Orleans and is well below expectations with such a talented roster.
Had New Orleans won and advanced to 3-3, that would yield a 34.5% playoff chance with a 8-8 average record finish (so 8-9 or 9-8). That’s a 23.9% swing in playoff chance for New Orleans. The good news is that the Tampa Bay Buccaneers also lost this week and did not extend their lead within the division. The Atlanta Falcons did win, however, evening them up with the Bucs atop the division. New Orleans is not yet left in the dust, but the outlook certainly isn’t great.
