Optimism isn’t something that Minnesota Vikings fans have in droves right now. They started 1-3 and struggled to maintain a lead throughout the season. The offense has also turned over the football 11 times versus only forcing three turnovers, which is tied for 30th in the NFL.
Despite all of that, the Vikings aren’t doing too bad with the underlying metrics and star players like Justin Jefferson are performing well.
Buy Vikings TicketsLooking forward to the matchup with the Kansas City Chiefs on Sunday, the path to the Vikings starting 1-4 is relatively easy to see, especially since they are the reigning Super Bowl champions, but there is still plenty to be optimistic about.
1. The Vikings rushing attack should be effective
The Vikings rushing game has played well the last two weeks. After only 69 yards in the first two weeks, they have accumulated 265 over the last two weeks with Alexander Mattison rushing for 188 of those yards.
The good news is the Chiefs can be taken advantage of in the running game. They are average in success rate allowed at 39% (14th) and 22nd in EPA/play (-0.043) With how well the Vikings’ offensive line has been playing this season, they can run the football.
2. Vikings defense is improved
Despite the poor showings against the Chargers and Eagles, the Vikings defense has shown improvements in the underlying metrics.
Their dropback EPA/play improved from 0.054 to 0.048 (21st to 17th) and success rate improved from 45.1% to 43% (25th to 14th). Those type of improvements seem minimal on paper, but they make a difference when you extrapolate them out for a full season.
3. Kirk Cousins has thrived playing behind this season
When the Vikings have been behind this season, it has extracted the best out of quarterback Kirk Cousins. He doesn’t like to be aggressive until he absolutely has to.
When he does grip it and rip it, Cousins is as good as just about any quarterback in the league. He led the Vikings from behind down 20 to come within a score against the Eagles and either tied or took the lead in each of the other three games. With the Chiefs likely to get a lead on the Vikings, Cousins could be primed for a big game.
4. Nobody can keep up with Justin Jefferson
On Sunday afternoon, Justin Jefferson arguably had his worst game of the season and he still caught six passes for 88 yards and a touchdown. It takes an elite cornerback to match up with Jefferson and even then, it doesn’t go well for the other team.
L’Jarius Snead and Trent McDuffie are solid to really good players, but they aren’t close to the level of Jefferson. Unless they commit to double coverage, the Chiefs could be in trouble.
5. Kicker isnt an issue
Greg Joseph hasn’t been the most consistent kicker in the National Football League. When the Vikings gave him a rather sizable contract during the offseason, it was rather puzzling.
So far this year, Joseph has been perfect. He has hit both of his field goals and all 12 extra points. That type of consistency, albeit in a smaller sample size, is something the Vikings have needed from their kicking game.
6. Underlying metrics are much improved
Last season, it was all about DVOA that showed the Vikings were “fraudulent.” This season, it’s saying something similar, but in the exact opposite way.
The Vikings are viewed somewhat highly in DVOA this year despite a 1-3 start.
- Total DVOA: 14th
- Offense DVOA: 12th
- Defense DVOA: 20th
Last season, the Vikings ranked much lower.
- Total DVOA: 27th
- Offensive DVOA: 20th
- Defensive DVOA: 27th
The purpose of DVOA is to measure a team’s play based on what they would do against an average team. It’s a good sign for the Vikings’ competitive rebuild, especially with how talent void they are at a few positions.
