The NFL Draft isn’t won by the teams at the top of the pecking order. It’s won by the teams toward the bottom who pull prize-winning crops from what looks like a barren field.
The Patriots built a two-decade dynasty around a sixth-round pick. The two targets that helped push Patrick Mahomes to greatness were third and fifth rounders. The quarterback Mahomes faced off against in Super Bowl 57 slid to the back end of Round 2.
Nailing your first round picks is important, but finding contributors on the second day of the draft or later can be the difference between a playoff appearance and a perpetual rebuild. That’s why the pre-draft process, all two months of it, has emerged as such an important part of the offseason. Scouts and decision makers grind game film and see what matches up with winter workouts and their own schemes. As a result, some underwhelming college careers lead to a spot in the first round. Other times, accomplished players are forced to watch their draft position drop for nebulous reasons.
Let’s focus on the latter. There are several players with prestigious pedigrees whose stock has fallen over the past few months. That’s great news for teams at the back end of Round 1 and those loaded with mid-draft selections. Who are the names we should watch the closest?
1
Trenton Simpson, LB, Clemson
This year’s crop of off-ball linebackers is an undervalued asset. At the top are three players capable of putting up a decade-long career as upper crust starters. Despite that, there’s a chance none wind up selected on Day 1.
Simpson is vying with Iowa’s Jack Campbell and Arkansas’ Drew Sanders to be the first man up among that group (Alabama/Tennessee vet Henry To’oto’o could also fit the bill). Campbell is an absolute monster who looked great at the combine. Sanders brings extra value as a blitzer (9.5 sacks last season). But Simpson’s’ skillset makes him the most interesting man at the position.
Simpson has, to put it bluntly, absolutely stupid speed and power. While his instincts at the snap can put him in disadvantageous situations, his ability to close gaps and sling ballcarriers backward more than makes up for it. In his Clemson career he’s lined up both in the box and over the slot, and while he’s likely going to be stuck in the former as a pro he’s got the experience and traits to run with receivers and tight ends over the middle.
He’s a work in progress despite starting two of his three years as a Tiger. He’s going to get washed away by complex blocking schemes early in his career as he learns to identify new plays. But he’s got the chops to make up for his early mistakes and the raw talent to be an All-Pro once he’s got the confidence and recognition to run whole hog at every play from the moment the ball is snapped.
2
Rashee Rice, WR, SMU
Rice went from supporting player to marquee star for the Mustangs in 2022, ranking second in the American Athletic Conference in both receptions (96) and receiving yards (1,355). First place went to fellow undervalued asset Nathaniel Dell, but that’s another story.
Despite this, Rice’s consensus big board ranking has dropped from a high of 29 all the way to 78th — a drop from the first round to the middle of the third. Evaluators have dinged him for a limited route tree at SMU and the inconsistency that pushed him to 100-plus yards 10 times in college and fewer than 50 yards 14 times. Factor in merely good speed (a 4.51-second 40) and size (6-foot-1, 204 pounds) and you’ve got a player scouts like, but don’t love.
That feels like a mistake.
Like a wolverine out there. Fighting through whatever he has to. pic.twitter.com/ePTNfbg1nK
— Dusty (@DustyEvely) April 25, 2023
Maryland was a solid team with a first round cornerback prospect in Deonte Banks. Rice roasted that secondary for 11 catches and 193 yards. He’s got a ton of “go-up-and-get-it” in his game, making him a panacea for struggling quarterbacks and rewarding passers who get the ball in his vicinity. He’s also a nightmare once he’s got the ball. His 14-plus yards per catch in 2022 weren’t because he’s a dynamite deep threat but because he’s so good after hauling it in.
Rice might not put up huge numbers, but he can be his QB’s best friend. Pair him up with a young, emerging passer and he’ll be a rising tide. That’d be great news for, say, the Green Bay Packers or Chicago Bears or New England Patriots.
3
Myles Murphy, EDGE, Clemson
Clemson has not one, but two defensive studs who entered 2022 as potential top 10 draft picks but now may slide to Day 2. Bryan Bresee’s stock slid thanks to the anonymous nature of defensive tackle stats and some just-OK combine numbers. Murphy, despite 18.5 career sacks and a pro-ready frame, has quietly slipped thanks in part to skipping workouts at the combine.
But Murphy showed up for Clemson’s pro day and proved he’s got all the chops to be a consistent performer at the next level. He dusted off a 4.53-second 40 at 268 pounds and looks every bit like an elite athlete among defensive ends/linebackers.
Pretty respectable for Myles Murphy. https://t.co/F1E3VBlxm3 pic.twitter.com/BQeqlv04Oa
— Kent Lee Platte (@MathBomb) April 9, 2023
This backs up what we’ve seen over the last three years. Murphy may not have best-in-class acceleration, but he’s got a Ferrari engine and enough gas to drive it around the world. This guy does. Not. Stop.
Murphy’s spot on big boards has slid from fourth place to 17th, which suggests some team in the middle of Round 1 is going to pick up a stud. He could stand to add moves to his repertoire, but he’s still going to win on passing downs by being massive, strong and fast. Put him on a team with an established edge rusher across from him, then watch him clean up the chaos.
4
Clark Phillips III, CB, Utah
It’s not difficult to understand why Phillips’ stock has dropped. The calendar has pushed evaluators away from his very good play on gamedays and toward his mostly bad numbers in workouts. His combine was … not ideal.
Phillips wasn’t especially explosive and at 5-foot-9 is one of the smaller cornerbacks in his class. That’s a problem if you’re drafting him to shadow bigger wideouts along the sideline. But that’s not what anyone is going to be drafting him for, because Clark Phillips is here to make sure no one’s catching anything from the slot.
2022 marked the first season Phillips played more than 22.5 percent of his snaps as a slot corner. He tripled his career interception total that fall, fine tuning the ball skills that had led to 13 pass breakups the year prior. He can also do work in space; here he is mostly limiting Jordan Addison’s production to short targets and gadget plays when Utah faced USC last fall.
Phillips might not be a guy you trust on an island full time, but he’s capable of tracking shifty wideouts across the field and sticking to their hip pockets. His measurables don’t measure up to his on-field impact. Someone’s gonna get a player who can have an instant impact in a top 10 secondary on Day 2.
5
Andre Carter II, EDGE, Army
Carter is an interesting case. Coming into 2022 he looked like he could be the first service academy graduate drafted in the first round since DeWitt Coulter in 1947. Instead, his breakthrough 2021 led opponents to gameplan around him and his numbers fell, leaving questions about how he’d fare against bigger spotlights — and better blockers — on Sundays.
Even so, this guy had 14.5 sacks in one season. At Army.
Granted, the level of competition wasn’t ideal, but Carter showed he can win on the edge with a variety of moves. He bends well enough to get his 6-foot-7 frame under the lunging swipes of offensive tackles around the edge. He has a quick first step that allows him to slice inside and discombobulate quarterbacks. He gets work done.
But his athletic testing numbers weren’t great and there’s a lingering concern his 2021 performance was an outlier, not a standard. That’s reasonable, but watching his tape showcases an instinctive player who can work as a 3-4 linebacker not only as a pass rusher but in useful support in coverage. He’s still a bit of a project who’ll need to get bigger, but he’s a worthy investment for any franchise willing to put in the work.
6
Kelee Ringo, CB, Georgia
At the finish line of the 2021 NCAA season, Ringo was the man sprinting toward the end zone on a 79-yard pick-six that sealed the Bulldogs’ first national title in 41 years. With eight passes defensed in his debut season, he possessed the potential to be Georgia’s next great first round defender.
Ringo was fine in 2022, he just wasn’t transcendent. His passer rating allowed rose from 63.2 to a still-pretty-good 68.4. He once again had two interceptions and roughly the same counting stats. He was a second-team All-SEC performer, which is only a disappointment when you’re a first-team preseason All-American.
It’s possible Ringo’s draft slot winds up being a victim of his own potential. Some teams may believe he’s hit his ceiling under Kirby Smart. But it’s more likely the former five-star recruit — the guy with a big 6-foot-2 frame and the speed to turn and run with anyone — is still growing.
Kelee Ringo has a knack for making big plays in big games. pic.twitter.com/85PLnmrrYT
— CBS Sports (@CBSSports) November 5, 2022
The concern with Ringo is a lack of coverage instincts that led him to rely more on his athleticism and do work in recovery. That creates some boom-or-bust tendencies akin to Marcus Peters’ work on Sundays. It’s concerning, sure, but it’s a trait that can be coached away over time. Factor in his ability to be an absolute hammer against the run and you’ve got a player who’s an asset even with occasional misreads.
The bottom line is Ringo is a cornerback with coveted size and all the athletic hallmarks of a guy you’d trust in man coverage outside. And there’s a chance he could slip to the middle of Day 2. He’ll need the right environment to thrive right away and will likely have some grim learning moments as a rookie no matter what, but he’s also going to find his place on highlight reels throughout his career — in a good way.
