Welcome to the new year and the unofficial start of the 2025 NASCAR Cup Series season.
Before the season gets officially underway with the Daytona 500 on February 16, here’s a handful of bold predictions about what’s going to unfold between now and early November.
1. Brad Keselowski Will Finally Win The Daytona 500
Keselowski has been one of NASCAR’s best superspeedway racers throughout most of his career, winning six times at Talladega and once at Daytona in a points-paying event.
Over his last seven superspeedway starts, the 2012 NASCAR Cup Series champion has finished eighth or better five times and come home runner-up three times. Although very accident-prone at Daytona, Keselowski is always fast at the fabled 2.5-mile track where he won the July race in 2016 with his former team at Team Penske.
The RFK Racing co-owner/driver is an ugly 0-for-15 in the Daytona 500, coming home a career-best third in the 2014 installment of The Great American Race. But based on the law of averages (he’s had a lot of bad luck in the Daytona 500, in particular) and the speed he carries with regularity at Daytona, this year just feels like his time to finally capture NASCAR’s biggest race.
2. A Hendrick Motorsports Driver Will Win The Championship
Not since 2021 has a Hendrick Motorsports driver claimed NASCAR’s most prestigious prize, but the dry spell will soon end. Look for Kyle Larson (who delivered Hendrick’s most recent championship), Larson’s 2020 championship-winning teammate Chase Elliott, or 2023 and 2024 Championship 4 qualifier William Byron to return the organization to NASCAR’s Promised Land in 2025.
Larson (23) and Byron (12) lead all other drivers in total victories over the last four seasons, and Elliott is always on the shortlist of title contenders. Finally, after Team Penske drivers Joey Logano and Ryan Blaney combining to claim the last three championships, the streak will end in 2025. And a driver from Team Hendrick will be the one to end it.
3. Denny Hamlin Will Retire From Full-Time Driving
The clock is ticking on Hamlin, who will turn 45 years old in November. While Hamlin could conceivably compete a few more years, here’s betting the 2025 campaign — his 20th season as a full-time NASCAR Cup Series driver — will be his last. Other than winning a championship, which he’s nearly done on several occasions, the three-time Daytona 500 winner has accomplished just about everything a driver could ever dream of accomplishing in the sport.
With his own team to run at 23XI Racing where he is co-owner alongside NBA legend Michael Jordan, Hamlin is stretched mighty thin these days as he juggles ownership duties with his job as driver of the No. 11 car for Joe Gibbs Racing. Look for Hamlin at some point in 2025 to finally decide it’s time to focus his efforts on his role as a team owner and hand in his proverbial resignation letter from JGR, effective with the final race of 2025.
4. Joe Gibbs Racing Will Announce Plans To Rehire Kyle Busch For 2026
If Hamlin does indeed call it quits on full-time racing, JGR will need to hire a driver for the 2026 season. Don’t be surprised in the least if that driver is none other than Kyle Busch, who spent 15 seasons with JGR and won 56 Cup Series races and two Cup Series championships with the organization before leaving for Richard Childress Racing at the end of 2022.
Over two seasons with RCR, Busch has gone to Victory Lane just three times and lacked consistently fast race cars. The 2024 season was extra disappointing for Busch as he missed the playoffs for the first time since 2012 and failed to win a race for the first time as a full-time Cup Series driver.
Barring a major performance leap in 2025, Busch will move on to greener pastures in 2026. That pasture will almost undoubtedly be his old organization, especially since he admitted in a moment of unscripted candor last summer that he would rejoin JGR in the future if afforded the opportunity.
For all those asking if Kyle Busch could go back to Joe Gibbs Racing, he left the door open to driver anywhere, but he said as far as next year, he's set to remain at RCR. pic.twitter.com/Cti0R7r4FG
— Bob Pockrass (@bobpockrass) June 15, 2024
5. NASCAR Will Move The Championship Race Back To Homestead-Miami For 2026
After six consecutive seasons of hosting the season finale for all three major NASCAR stock car series, Phoenix Raceway will pass the baton back to Homestead-Miami Speedway in 2026. While no such news is official, here’s predicting it will come sometime after Labor Day — the time when NASCAR typically announces its schedule for the following season.
Homestead-Miami, which hosted the final race from 2002-2019, not only offers great weather for early November, but it has hosted some of the more exciting Cup Series events on the schedule since giving up its spot as host of the season finale.
That’s especially been the case since the rollout of the Next Generation Cup Series car in 2022. One of the most thrilling finishes ever at Homestead took place last year when Tyler Reddick went from third to first on the final lap to score the win and punch a ticket to the Championship 4.
Now just imagine if Reddick’s final-lap heroics had been for the championship. This is why you can bet on Homestead playing host to Championship Weekend once again.
WHAT A BATTLE! Tyler Reddick gets around Denny Hamlin and Ryan Blaney to WIN at Homestead-Miami Speedway. He's in the Championship 4! #NASCARPlayoffs pic.twitter.com/v53HBqQHkp
— FOX: NASCAR (@NASCARONFOX) October 27, 2024
