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Earnings season charging up as Tesla (TSLA), Meta Platforms (META), and Microsoft (MSFT) are set to release their quarterly results today, Jan. 29. Apple (AAPL) will release its fiscal Q1 2025 earnings on Jan. 30 after the close of markets.
Although the iPhone maker has been having a dismal year and was in a correction zone, it has recovered somewhat this week. It is however still down almost 5% in the year to date. In this article, we’ll look at Apple’s fiscal Q1 earnings estimates and analyze whether the stock is a buy or a sell ahead of the report.
Apple Fiscal Q1 Earnings Preview
Analysts expect Apple’s revenues to rise 3.7% year over year to $124 billion in the December quarter. The estimates are toward the lower end of Apple’s forecast that called for sales to rise in “low to mid-single digits.”
Notably, some sell-side analysts have cut Apple’s earnings estimates this month after third-party reports pointed to soft iPhone demand – particularly in China – which is the company’s biggest market outside the U.S. Since the iPhone accounts for over half of Apple’s revenue, any weakness in its sales is bound to have a significant impact on the company’s top line.
Consensus estimates call for an 8.3% rise in Apple’s earnings per share (EPS). Apple does not provide bottom line guidance, but during the previous earnings call, it forecast gross margins between 46%-47% for the quarter.
What to Watch in Apple’s Earnings Call
Along with the headline metrics, I will watch the following during Apple’s upcoming earnings call.
- Fiscal Q2 Guidance: While Apple stopped providing quantitative guidance in 2020, the company does provide some directionality. During the fiscal Q1 earnings call, I will watch out for any color on Q2 guidance, especially for iPhones and the Services business.
- China Business: Apple lost the crown of the largest smartphone company in China last year as domestic companies like Vivo and Huawei gained market share. The company even had to lower iPhone prices in the country earlier this month following Huawei’s price cuts. During the earnings call, I will watch management’s comments on its business in China where it seems to be losing ground quite fast.
- Trump’s Tariffs: This is Apple’s first earnings call since President Donald Trump took office. The president has vowed punitive tariffs, including on China, which is key to Apple’s supply chain. To be sure, like many other companies, Apple read the writing on the wall and has been diversifying its supply chain to other Asian countries. However, China still remains central to its supply chain, and during the earnings call, the company might talk about optionality in its supply chain in case Trump goes ahead with tariffs on China.
- Apple Intelligence: I will especially be watching commentary on Apple Intelligence, which was supposed to drive iPhone 16 sales. However, the late and limited rollout of Apple Intelligence features seems to have dampened demand. While the company might hold Apple Intelligence-related announcements for the Worldwide Developers Conference (WWDC) later this year, it might provide some color on the timeline of additional features. On a similar note, Apple might give an update on the launch of these features in China and the E.U.
- Impact From DeepSeek: While reports of DeepSeek’s AI model led to a sell-off in other AI plays, Apple not only dodged the selloff, but actually closed up on Jan. 27. During the upcoming earnings call, Apple might provide its view on the model and any possible partnerships with the company.
Apple Stock Forecast
Wall Street analysts are mixed on Apple heading into its fiscal Q1 earnings. Rosenblatt and Bank of America see a decent report – especially in light of tepid expectations. However, not all are convinced about Apple’s near-term outlook. The stock has been hit by three downgrades in 2025 from MoffettNathanson, Loop Capital, and Jefferies, while UBS — which has a “Hold”-equivalent rating on Apple — lowered its estimates for iPhone sales. Incidentally, Apple faced three downgrades in January 2024 as well but went on to deliver decent returns in the year.
Overall, Apple has a consensus rating of “Moderate Buy” from the 36 analysts covering the stock while its mean target price of $241.94 is just over 1.5% higher than the Jan. 28 closing price.
Is Apple Stock a Buy or a Sell?
While much pessimism toward Apple looks baked into shares, the company needs to convince markets about its outlook during the upcoming earnings call. Apple has been plagued by tepid growth for the last several quarters which is also reflected in its share price. With Apple stock trading at over 32x its projected earnings over the next 12 months, there is little room for management error. Overall, while Apple remains a core part of my portfolio, I am not too inclined to add more shares at these price levels.
