After an exhaustive eight-month wait, the 2022 NFL season is finally here.
While the Rams and Bills already kicked off the official festivities Thursday night, there’s still an awesome Sunday (and Monday!) slate ahead of us to look forward to on the first weekend of pro football this year. And opening weekend — like this year — never seems to disappoint in the potential intrigue.
You’ve got your usual preseason darlings trying to live up to the immense hype. It’s good that some of the predictions behind them are written in pencil. Some young quarterbacks, be they rookies or more vested second-year veterans, are trying to make names for themselves. Then there’s the prospect of the dreaded “hangover” and other hungry squads trying to vault themselves back up to elite status.
Week 1 of the NFL season is when we really might understand the least about the overall state of the league because nothing clarifies like tangible game action. I can’t say enough how thrilled I am to consume this first 1/17 sample size obsessively so I can learn more.
Here are five major storylines to keep a keen eye on during the opening week of the 2022 NFL season:
5
Put up or shut up time for the offseason darlings
Every year, the greater football community anoints a few teams they think will break out into contention. And every year, we’re usually wildly wrong about at least one squad. This year’s pet projects everyone’s following with a closer, keen eye are the Bills, Chargers, and Eagles. The Bills already took care of business on opening night and certainly looked the part of a Super Bowl favorite. But what about their friends in L.A. and Philadelphia?
The Chargers have hype like the world’s weight on their shoulders, largely thanks to Justin Herbert. And with additions like Khalil Mack and J.C. Jackson, expectations for the other team in Southern California seem higher than they’ve been in years. But hype often comes packaged with disappointment and resentment. For example, the Chargers’ fun novelty of going for it more often on fourth down, while smart and logical in theory and practice, will start to wear thin if they can’t enjoy any January success. I’m not talking about Week 18.
Former Dolphins exec Mike Tannenbaum just called Chargers QB Justin Herbert "the best player in the sport" on ESPN's Get Up.
— Al Butler (@ALaboutSports) September 7, 2022
Meanwhile, the Eagles might possess the NFL’s best roster on paper. They’ve got a three-headed pass-catching Cerberus (A.J. Brown, Devonta Smith, Dallas Goedert), the best and perhaps the deepest offensive line in football led by Jason Kelce, and a defense that now buoys Darius Slay on the backend with a legit CB2 in James Bradberry, a supposed top-notch safety in Chauncey Gardner-Johnson, and the flatly massive Jordan Davis next to Fletcher Cox up front. The baseline for this kind of roster should probably be a conference title game appearance.
Best odds to win the Super Bowl in the NFC, per @fboutsiders:
1. Eagles, 8.1%
2. Rams, 7.8%
3. Bucs, 7.0%
4. Packers, 5.6%
5. Saints, 5.4%
T6. Cowboys, 4.3%
T6. Vikings, 4.3%
8. 49ers, 1.7%
9. Cardinals, 1.1%
10. Lions, 0.8%— Kyle Odegard (@Kyle_Odegard) September 8, 2022
But the green elephant in the room with eagle wings lingers. Can Jalen Hurts get all these moving parts humming together?
The Chargers begin their 2022 journey with a home date against the rival Raiders — the team who ended their season just nine months ago and seems to have left a mark. On the other side of the country, the Eagles will travel to Detroit to try and upend Dan Campbell’s upstart and gritty Lions.
Even if it’s only one week, we’re about to learn plenty about the mettle of both of these hype darlings.
4
A bittersweet "Revenge Game" for Russell Wilson in Seattle
In his Broncos’ debut, Russell Wilson makes his long-awaited return to Seattle on Monday Night Football in a few days. It got me thinking: Why on earth did one team (Denver) embrace one of pro football’s best players while another seemingly gave up on him for a package of unknowns (Seattle)?
The Broncos believe in Russell Wilson as their quarterback for the foreseeable future. Denver wouldn’t have committed some of the most guaranteed money in NFL history over the next half-decade to Wilson if they thought they had a slouch under center.
If we’re also to believe in the Broncos’ faith in Wilson in his first year with the squad, then something was apparently lost in translation between the Colorado Front Range and Puget Sound. Something big. I mean, it had to be, right? Teams don’t just trade eight-time Pro Bowlers in their early 30s all willy-nilly. There has to be a rationale behind literally flipping your franchise upside down. There just does.
Per a recent ESPN report detailing how frayed Wilson’s relationship with Seattle was at the end of his tenure, the Seahawks thought the star QB’s best days were behind him:
“I just felt like he’s [Wilson] a descending player,” another front-office source said, citing the same mobility concern. “Is he going to be able to be a true pocket passer at the end of his career and just stand there and drop the ball off to his checkdowns? He’s never done that. I can’t tell you he’s going to be able to do that.”
This anonymous source in the Seattle front office wasn’t alone. The Seahawks traded the unquestionably best quarterback they’ve ever had because, team-building questions aside, they first wanted to start a full-scale rebuild. But by the time that rebuild was over, they thought Wilson would be a shell of himself. OK, sure. I can at least buy that thought process even if I disagree with the trade of a rare and difficult-to-acquire player.
However, I can’t put my finger on Pete Carroll, GM John Schneider, and the many higher-ups at Seahawks QB seemingly doing everything possible to undermine Wilson once he became the team’s focal point.
Seattle never spent much money on their offensive line, even after giving him a mega extension in 2015. Yet, somehow, Wilson persevered as one of the league’s elite quarterbacks. He became an elite dual-threat player almost by default because of his situation and thrived. When it was time to shift the offense into more control of Wilson’s hands in recent years, Carroll and former offensive coordinator Brian Schottenheimer famously seemed to balk at the mere mention. What should’ve been an offense that lived and died with Wilson’s arm instead was a glorified pop-gun insistent on running the ball even when it was clear there would only be dust clouds. “Let Russ Cook” was funny at first but morphed into this sad, tragic meme of an NFL team not fully realizing the talent it possessed.
If there were a perfect embodiment of the beatniks from The Simpsons being exasperated while trying nothing, it would be the Seahawks and how they supported Wilson.
One time for posterity:
All this to say: If you don’t think Wilson has how he thinks the Seahawks slighted him on his mind, then I have a bridge to sell you. Maybe a star quarterback to trade because, well, I don’t think he’s very good anymore … for reasons.
Wilson’s potential reaction to Seahawks fans is obviously a different story:
Russell Wilson on what he expects Seahawks’ fans reaction to him will be Monday night: “I gave my heart and soul every day…hopefully it will be positive…
“My time in Seattle was special.” @thenewstribune pic.twitter.com/hHoqeqGv2P
— Gregg Bell (@gbellseattle) September 8, 2022
It should be an electric scene around Wilson as he enters in an orange crush jersey for the first time. I, for one, cannot wait to see how this Seattle sports legend responds to the moment.
3
An all-important Year 2 begins for the 2021 QB class
Definitive one-year judgments on recent rookie quarterback classes are one of the more foolish leaps to make.
The 2018 crop is a perfect example. If we took final stock of the top of this group of passers after their collective Year 1: Lamar Jackson would eventually be a superstar deserving of a lucrative new contract (what a coincidence!), Baker Mayfield would probably still call Cleveland home (yikes), and Josh Allen would’ve been laughed out of the league a long time ago (uh).
If we did the same thing and made snap one-year judgments of the 2021 quarterback class, the reasonable conclusion would be “incomplete.” Because even with a respectable game-manager debut year from the Patriots’ Mac Jones, you might say that all six current slated second-year starters have zero future in the NFL. While this has happened in the past to some degree, it’s unlikely that all six major drafted rookie QBs from 2021 — Justin Fields, Trey Lance, Trevor Lawrence, Zach Wilson, Mac Jones, and Davis Mills — never amount to anything at the highest level.
After all, some are in a better position to succeed than their peers.
Year 2 of a young quarterback’s development is vital to their career. This fall should be when we see more consistent flashes and fewer mistakes from this crew. Now, no one’s going to be perfect. No one will make an unprecedented Patrick Mahomes 2018 or Josh Allen 2020 leap. But that’s no excuse for these young men not to play like somewhat competent starters. It’s the bare minimum in their respective trajectories.
Here’s the Week 1 gauntlet that awaits this group of young signal-callers:
- Bears’ Justin Fields vs. 49ers’ Trey Lance
- Patriots’ Mac Jones at Dolphins
- Texans’ Davis Mills vs. Colts
- Jaguars’ Trevor Lawrence at Commanders
- Jets’ Zach Wilson N/A (recovering from knee injury; news of first start to be determined)
Aside from what Fields potentially has to deal with in San Francisco, that’s not exactly a murderer’s row of opponents on paper. Someone in this second-season fraternity will shine and put themselves in a position for a promising Year 2. And someone may likely hope their performance is only some opening week jitters.
2
Does Bill Belichick have ... a plan?
Speaking of Mac Jones and the Patriots, what’s up in Foxborough these days? Wait. Hold on. Before I say anything more, I’m aware of how silly expressing this logic might make me look. I know he’s got one of the greatest backlogs of achievements and accomplishments in NFL history. I know some consider him the best coach in the sport’s history (and maybe even the best current GM). I know, I know.
But if Bill Belichick actually has a plan for the Patriots to win meaningful games this year, it might be time to reveal part of it in Miami on Sunday! If not to make it seem like he still knows what he’s doing, but also to assuage the many offseason and preseason concerns clouding New England. This isn’t a veteran, battle-tested squad that has Tom Brady as the starting quarterback and which can “coast” in exhibitions. If they’re showing summer red flags, chances are those red flags have merit.
At least Belichick is in midseason form at the microphone. That’s always a good sign:
Are there any similarities between Christian Barmore and Vince Wilfork?
Bill Belichick: "They both play defensive tackle."
— Chad Graff (@ChadGraff) September 7, 2022
(Clears throat) I have a laundry list of questions that I know Belichick would never answer anyway:
Is Mac Jones a viable long-term difference maker? Does the offense have any legit field-tilting playmakers? Why deliberately weaken the offensive line by trading Shaq Mason for pennies on the dollar? Does the defense have enough stars, or even a wholesale unit, to stem the tide of top quarterbacks in the AFC? What happened with those third-round tight ends you drafted? Why is Matt Patricia someone suddenly so involved in the offensive gameplan? Why does the offensive gameplan seem to resemble a weird and atrocious combination of ball-control offense with limited risks? Do you not trust the quarterback? Do you not trust the coordinator? Do you not trust yourself?
(Exhales)
It’s never a make-or-break year for a coach with six Super Bowl titles in the last 20 years. Leaders like this dictate the terms all around their organization. Even then, I’m extremely curious to see how Belichick pulls off his latest and best MacGyver impression by using glue and string to hold this iteration of the Patriots above .500.
1
Fluke or the start of a Bengals' golden era?
I would be remiss if I didn’t address the NFL’s latest “Forgotten Team” — the Super Bowl 56-losing Bengals. Cincinnati has a gifted roster with Joe “Cool” Burrow at the helm and will probably be OK to attempt defending their AFC title as long as he’s slinging the ball. But the crux of the infamous “Super Bowl hangover” will loom over this squad like a specter until they prove it has no weight.
To their credit, after their heartbreaking defeat in February, Cincinnati didn’t rest on its laurels. They didn’t operate like they didn’t have to change much to get back to the Super Bowl and finish the job — a fatal mistake for many runner-ups. In response to a defeat where Burrow was beaten like a drum by Aaron Donald and the rest of the L.A. defensive front, the Bengals (finally!) revamped their turnstile offensive line by spending $22 million guaranteed for three quality new starters in La’El Collins, Ted Karras, and Alex Cappa.
No doubt, it’ll take time for this offensive line to build quality chemistry together. But in a league starving for average offensive line play, the Bengals’ offensive front might be the envy of some teams in the league by midseason. Throw in the potential rise of a healthier Tee Higgins, and the Bengals could, theoretically, be even better than last year. The operative word there being “could.”
Tee Higgins caught only 7 less passes than Ja’Marr Chase last season and played in 3 less games.
It’s a more realistic outcome than people realize that Higgins could outscore Ja’Marr this season.
— Luke Sawhook 🪚🪝 (@lukesawhook) September 4, 2022
But history suggests, regardless of what the Bengals have done to sand over their flaws, even staying in the playoff picture will be a challenge for Cincinnati in 2022.
In the Super Bowl era, only eight losing teams from the previous year returned to the big game the following year. Just three (the 1971 Cowboys, 1972 Dolphins, and 2018 Patriots) won in their return. In more recent history, two of the last three Super Bowl losers (the 2019 Rams and 2020 49ers) missed the playoffs entirely. Meanwhile, the 2021 Chiefs blew a 21-3 halftime lead during a home AFC title game (coincidentally, to the Bengals). Newsflash, folks: It’s difficult to get to the Super Bowl. If you get one chance at it, you better not waste it.
This precedent isn’t to say completely unrelated teams, from other eras of football, with contrasting styles of play, spell out certain doom for the Bengals’ Super Bowl hopes. But many of these situations are similar in being predicated on luck and a simple metaphorical roll of the dice. Injuries happen, especially to key players at the worst time. A young up-and-coming team riding a wave of energy maybe starts to have infighting the following year. The first sign of adversity might not be as galvanizing the second time because your team is supposed to be better than everyone. As confident as you might be, it’s not supposed to be harder.
#Bengals QB Joe Burrow is very confident heading into this season after that Super Bowl run
"You're gonna have to pick you poison, If you're gonna play too high, you're gonna have to deal with Joe Mixon. If you decide to play man, then…good luck"
— Bob Pompeani (@KDPomp) September 5, 2022
I don’t think the Bengals are a fluke in the traditional sense. I think Burrow and Friends will be contending for the top of the AFC for years to come. But in their first season after tasting success, it’s fair to ponder whether last year’s Cinderella run was a one-time occasion. Cincinnati was remarkably healthy throughout their entire playoff run, suffering no significant injuries for any major period. And their chemistry was off the charts. Sometimes that mix carries over, and sometimes it needs a little more churning in a down year. The orange light’s always darkest before the dawn and whatnot.
I might change my tune of cautious skepticism about the Bengals if they pummel the new-look Steelers on Sunday. It would continue a fresh trend of recent dominance (three straight wins since December 2020) over their former tormentors. If the Bengals still have a rivalry edge to their game, maybe the mythical Super Bowl hangover won’t strike them down.
