5 reasons why the Ravens will beat the Chiefs in AFC Championship game

The time has come, and we’re a little over 3 hours from one of the biggest AFC Championship tilts in NFL history when the Baltimore Ravens host the Kansas City Chiefs at M&T Bank Stadium.

Since becoming Kansas City’s head coach in 2013, Andy Reid has been 4-1 through the regular season against the Ravens, while quarterback Patrick Mahomes has been 3-1.

Last Sunday, the Chiefs defeated the Bills in Buffalo 27-24 to advance to the AFC’s final game, while Baltimore is riding high after a 34-10 win over Houston and rookie quarterback C.J. Stroud.

With pregame warmups already underway, we’re looking at five reasons the Ravens will win the AFC Championship.

Defense wins Championships

Jan 20, 2024; Baltimore, MD, USA; Houston Texans quarterback C.J. Stroud (7) runs the ball against Baltimore Ravens linebacker Jadeveon Clowney (24) and defensive tackle Justin Madubuike (92) during the first quarter of a 2024 AFC divisional round game at M&T Bank Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Mitch Stringer-USA TODAY Sports

Baltimore became the first team in league history to finish a season ranking No. 1 in each of the following categories: points allowed (16.5 ppg), sacks (60) and takeaways (31, tied w/ NYG).

Led by All-Pros S Kyle Hamilton, DT Justin Madubuike, ILB Patrick Queen and ILB Roquan Smith, the Ravens allowed the league’s sixth-fewest yards (301.4 ypg).

Madubuike posted a team-high 13 sacks (most among NFL interior linemen), while impactful veteran free agent additions OLB Jadeveon Clowney (9.5) and OLB Kyle Van Noy (9) ranked second and third, respectively, contributing to Baltimore’s singleseason franchise-tying (2006) 60 QB drops.

Baltimore can run Kansas City out of the building

Dec 31, 2023; Baltimore, Maryland, USA; Baltimore Ravens wide receiver Zay Flowers (4) celebrates with Baltimore Ravens wide receiver Nelson Agholor (15) after scoring a second quarter touchdown against the Miami Dolphins at M&T Bank Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Tommy Gilligan-USA TODAY Sports

Baltimore ranked No. 4 in scoring (28.4 ppg) and No. 6 in total yards (370.4), averaging an NFL-high 156.5 rushing yards per game.

Led by Lamar Jackson’s rushing yards (821) and RB Gus Edwards’ rushing TDs (13), Baltimore’s ground game racked up an NFL-high 2,661 yards (156.5 ypg) and franchise-record 26 TDs.

First-team All-Pro QB Lamar Jackson produced the NFL’s fourth-best rating (102.7), throwing for 3,678 yards (career high), 24 TDs, and just 7 INTs. He added 821 rushing yards and 5 TDs to become the only quarterback in NFL history with multiple seasons (also the 2019 MVP campaign), reaching the incredible 3,000/800 milestone.

The Ravens have Mark Andrews back, Odell Beckham fresh, and Zay Flowers’ shiftiness as an advantage on offense. Flowers set rookie franchise marks in catches (77) and receiving yards (858), adding six total TDs (5 receiving & 1 rushing). RB Gus Edwards tallied 810 rushing yards
and 13 TDs (second most in the Raven’s single-season history).

Two tight ends are better than one

Nov 16, 2023; Baltimore, Maryland, USA; Baltimore Ravens tight end Mark Andrews (89) runs after a catch during the first quarter against Cincinnati Bengals linebacker Logan Wilson (55) at M&T Bank Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Tommy Gilligan-USA TODAY Sports

Mark Andrews recorded 45 catches for 544 yards and 6 TDs before being injured (ankle) in Week 11, and still led the team in receiving touchdowns.

Isaiah Likely stepped up admirably in Andrews’ absence, finishing with 30 catches for 411 yards and 5 TDs, as Baltimore has a clear red zone advantage with the return of Andrews.

Ravens can win multiple ways

Sep 19, 2021; Baltimore, Maryland, USA; Baltimore Ravens quarterback Lamar Jackson (8) throws during the second quarter against the Kansas City Chiefs at M&T Bank Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Tommy Gilligan-USA TODAY Sports

Baltimore will smother you on defense, but the offense is dynamic and has multiple ways of defeating an opposing offense.

Most importantly, they have the horses to keep up with Patrick Mahomes.

Baltimore tied (2019 and 2020) for its most 30-point games in a single season, reaching that mark in eight games. The team’s six games with at least 400 yards gained tied (2012, 2014, 2018, and 2020) for the second-most such single-season occurrences in franchise history, trailing only the
2019 campaign (eight).

Kyle Hamilton is the difference

BALTIMORE, MARYLAND – DECEMBER 31: Justin Madubuike #92 of the Baltimore Ravens reacts during an NFL football game between the Baltimore Ravens and the Miami Dolphins at M&T Bank Stadium on December 31, 2023 in Baltimore, Maryland. (Photo by Michael Owens/Getty Images)

Hamilton’s 10 TFL marked a Ravens single-season DB record and led all NFL safeties in 2023.

Additionally, his 13 passes defended tied (Detroit’s Brian Branch) for the most by a safety all season, while his three sacks tied for the second most among the group.

Hamilton added 81 tackles, 4 INTs, one pick-6, and 1 FF, becoming the NFL’s first player since Tyrann Mathieu (2015) to register double-digit TFL and at least 4 INTs in a single season.

Bonus--Best linebacker duo on the planet

BALTIMORE, MARYLAND – DECEMBER 31: Roquan Smith #0 of the Baltimore Ravens reacts as he leads a huddle prior to an NFL football game between the Baltimore Ravens and the Miami Dolphins at M&T Bank Stadium on December 31, 2023 in Baltimore, Maryland. (Photo by Michael Owens/Getty Images)

Dre Greenlaw and Fred Warner are two outstanding linebackers, but the best duo in the NFL resides in Baltimore City.

Patrick Queen (133) and Roquan Smith (158) formed the NFL’s only duo to each post at least 130 tackles in 2023.

Smith’s 158 tackles marked the NFL’s sixth most, while Queen’s 133 ranked 16th. On 11/12/23 vs. Cleveland. Smith (21) became the second Ravens defender in franchise history (also LB Ray Lewis) to register at least 20 tackles in a game.