Fantasy football can be fun, but also very stressful at the same time. While you can do all the analysis you want about a specific play, it's also a game that heavily relies on matchups. It's never fun to watch when your top players fail to produce the points you need to pull off the win for the week thanks to a heroic effort from the defense.
That's doubly true when you're watching a contest on Sunday or Monday Night Football to get you over the top for the week.
Draft day is the most critical time of the entire fantasy football season because that's when you lay down the foundation of your team. Yeah, you can always make trades and pick up a few guys on the waiver wire but regardless it starts and ends with how you draft. So you'll want to make sure you're not filling your roster with players who will give you that frustrating experience above.
Below we'll discuss five players you should avoid in your drafts in 2024 based on the fantasy football strength of schedule (SOS), according to FantasyPros' metric.
1. Josh Jacobs, RB, Green bay Packers
Running back Josh Jacobs was a big-ticket addition for the Packers this offseason. They replaced Aaron Jones with Jacobs as they look to add a younger set of legs to the backfield.
Although Jacobs is just two years removed from leading the league in rushing yards, things don't look as promising for the 2024 season. The Packers have the worst schedule in 2024 for running backs, which certainly isn't a good sign for Jacobs.
He also already seemed to take a step back in 2023. Last season the Alabama product was ranked 18th in yards per touch, 13th in yards created per touch, and 37th in missed tackles forced per attempt.
It appeared that those 400 touches during the 2022 season played a factor in his production this past year. In addition, Green Bay is going to match up against the Chicago Bears, Philadelphia Eagles, Minnesota Vikings, Jacksonville Jaguars, Houston Texans, and Detroit Lions. Each of those teams was ranked inside the top-10 in terms of run defense in 2023.
That's no easy feat and we can't underrate how many touches MarShawn Lloyd and AJ Dillon will get this fall as well.
2. D'Andre Swift, RB, Chicago Bears
There aren't many other teams in the league who upgraded more than the Chicago Bears. General manager Ryan Poles made it his mission to improve the Bears roster and he did exactly that.
The list of additions includes Caleb Williams, Rome Odunze, Keenan Allen, Kevin Byard, and D'Andre Swift. In terms of talent, the Bears are loaded on offense. That's great news for Williams, but when you're looking at it from a fantasy perspective, it makes things a bit more difficult.
There are so many guys on the offense who will be looking to get feed but one football can only go around so many times in a 60-minute game.
The Bears also have a crowded backfield with Swift, Khalil Herbert, and Roschon Johnson. These guys will all be fighting to get reps, and it's not going to be easy sledding for anyone in this three-way split.
The Bears will have the eighth toughest schedule for running backs. Chicago will suit up against the Houston Texans, Los Angeles Rams, Minnesota Vikings, Detroit Lions, and New England Patriots. All these teams finished Top 12 in terms of run defense last season.
Swift also has struggled to break tackles in his career. These combinations make it difficult for me to have Swift as one of the best running backs to select. You will be better off suited looking elsewhere for a tailback.
3. Justin Herbert, QB, Los Angeles Chargers
Justin Herbert is being considered a sneaky late-round quarterback sleeper this year, but he shouldn't be.
First off, the Los Angeles Chargers have experienced a lot of turnover this offseason from the coaching staff to the roster. Yeah, they now have Jim Harbaugh calling the shots in Los Angeles but the roster took some serious hits.
Keenan Allen and Mike Williams are both no longer on the team, which takes away his top two targets. They didn't do much to replace those guys either. The best playmaker they brought in was wide receiver Ladd McConkey, but relying on a second-round rookie is risky.
Last season, Herbert was QB8 in terms of fantasy points per game but it's hard seeing him replicate that this season.
The Chargers have the 10th hardest schedule for quarterbacks in the league. They will be going up against the Kansas City Chiefs (twice), New England Patriots, Cleveland Browns, and Baltimore Ravens. All of those defenses were ranked in the Top 10 in total defense last season and they shouldn't drop off much. Rolling with Herbert this season seems like a risky bet for your team.
4. Courtland Sutton, WR, Denver Broncos
The Denver Broncos have experienced some turnover this offseason at the quarterback position. They decided to move on from Russell Wilson.
In April, they selected Bo Nix with their first-round pick and had a QB competition between Nix, Jarrett Stidham, and Zach Wilson. Nix won the competition, but that still doesn't look especially appealing for anyone who wants to draft wide receiver Courtland Sutton.
Sutton is the clear No. 1 WR in Denver but the outlook on his 2024 season doesn't look too promising.
The Broncos have the third-hardest SOS for wide receivers, which doesn't bode well for Sutton. In 2024, Denver will be facing off against seven teams who finished inside the Top 10 in terms of pass defense.
Corners like Sauce Gardner, Denzel Ward, Jaire Alexander, Marlon Humphrey, and AJ Terrell will be lined up across from Sutton. Also, the Broncos don't have any other wide receiver who will strike fear in defenses.
That means Sutton could face more double teams and that will spell bad news for fantasy owners. All while catching passes from a rookie quarterback.
5. DeVonta Smith, WR, Philadelphia Eagles
This one may catch people by surprise, but the Eagles offense is maybe too loaded. With playmakers like DeVonta Smith, A.J. Brown, Dallas Goedert, and Saquon Barkley in the fold, there are a lot of mouths to feed in Philadelphia.
They are slated to match up against six teams who ranked Top 10 in pass defense during the 2023 season.
Smith's average draft position (ADP) has him going off the board as the 45th player overall, but other options in that same range include Brandon Aiyuk, Jaylen Waddle, DK Metcalf, and Michael Pittman.
Any of those guys would be a better choice over Smith. Philadelphia has the fifth-hardest schedule for wide receivers in 2024. Last year, he finished as WR18 but we can expect him to finish lower than that this season.
This article was originally published on www.si.com as 5 Players to Avoid Based on Fantasy Football Strength of Schedule in 2024.
