The Houston Texans defense has been a porous one so far in 2022. Only three teams have allowed more total yardage and only one has allowed more rushing yards.
It’s the perfect opportunity for the Jacksonville Jaguars offense to get back on track after a sloppy, turnover-filled Week 4 loss to the Philadelphia Eagles. And that makes it a great day for filling the stat books and cashing on player prop bets.
The loss to the Eagles was a nightmarish day for prop bets with the Jaguars offense on the field for less than 50 plays and the Philadelphia offense leaning almost entirely on one player: running back Miles Sanders.
That shouldn’t be an issue on Sunday when the Jaguars go against the Texans defense. Here are five player prop bets via Tipico Sportsbook that look like they could be winners in Week 5:
Trevor Lawrence - Over passing touchdowns (1.5)
Lawrence has at least two touchdown passes in each of the last three weeks and eight on the season.
The Texans allowed only two touchdown passes through the first three weeks before letting Justin Herbert throw a pair of touchdowns in Week 4.
While Houston’s defense is statistically much better against the pass than it is against the run, Jaguars coach Doug Pederson has shown a preference for passing over running in the red zone. If Jacksonville gets in the end zone three or more times against one of the worst defenses in the NFL, it’s a good bet than Lawrence throws at least a couple of those touchdowns.
Travis Etienne - Over rushing yards (35.5)
The Jaguars’ inexplicable refusal to give James Robinson the ball much in the losses in Weeks 1 and 4 earned Doug Pederson some well-deserved criticism.
That could (or should) lead to Robinson getting a sizable workload in Week 5 against the Texans. But the Jaguars coaching staff also seems stubbornly determined to get Etienne involved in the offense in a big way.
Against a Texans defense that is allowing over five yards per carry so far this year, it may only take a handful of carries for Etienne to crack 36 yards.
James Robinson - Anytime touchdown scorer (-140)
It’s not a tremendously valuable bet at -140, but there’s a reason for it. Robinson has been a touchdown machine.
After racking up four touchdowns in his first three games this season, Robinson only touched the ball eight times Sunday against the Eagles last week.
Hopefully, that won’t be an issue again in Week 5 against one of the NFL’s worst run defenses. Robinson should get plenty of opportunities to find his fifth touchdown of the day, and — like oddsmakers — I think it’s more likely than not that he finds the end zone at least once Sunday.
Davis Mills - Over rushing yards (1.5)
Mills is at exactly zero rushing yards through four games this season. The Texans quarterback lost a yard in his season debut and picked one up in Week 2. The next two weeks he stayed at zero.
That lack of production has oddsmakers setting his Week 5 rushing total at a ridiculously low 1.5 yards. Mills could get that on any given play or even something as simple as a quarterback sneak on a fourth and short.
Last season, Mills recorded 36 rushing yards in the Texans’ last six games and topped two yards in five of those games.
Marvin Jones - Under receiving yards (38.5)
The receiving total for Jones isn’t that high, but there’s a few reasons to take the under.
For one, Jones hasn’t eclipsed 39 yards at all this season. While he’s reached at least 30 yards three times so far, he hasn’t had much more.
Secondly, the Jaguars will have Zay Jones back in the lineup in Week 5. The younger Jones has been a targets magnet so far in 2022 and will leave less opportunities for the elder Jones to finish with more than 38 yards.
Lastly, it would be smart if the Jacksonville offense leaned on the run against the leaky Texans defensive line. If the Jaguars find success in that pursuit — and especially if they build a big lead over the Texans — that will mean even less opportunities for Marvin Jones and the Jaguars receivers.
The under looks like the move here.
