The Miami Dolphins will square off against their division rival Buffalo Bills in Week 18, and the stakes of this game are about as high as any regular season game can get. The outcome will be a determining factor in who lands where in the AFC playoffs.
The Dolphins hold a record of 11-5 coming off a loss to the first-place Baltimore Ravens in Week 17. Buffalo, coming in at 10-6, has been climbing their way up the standings after a sluggish first half of the season. A win for Buffalo gives them two wins over the Dolphins, securing the AFC East title due to the head-to-head tiebreaker.
All eyes across the league will be on this matchup. Here are a couple of key storylines to follow heading into the final game of the 2023 regular season.
Winner receives second seed in the AFC
The winner of Sunday night’s matchup will be the number two seed in the AFC behind only the Ravens. The No. 2 seed secures home-field advantage through the wild-card round and the divisional playoffs. If Baltimore were to lose in the divisional round, it could mean a third home playoff game for the number two seed in the AFC Championship game.
If Miami loses this contest, they’ll be the sixth seed and face the Kansas City Chiefs at Arrowhead Stadium. In all likelihood, a loss for the Dolphins means no more home games for the aqua and orange.
The Dolphins have been significantly better at home than on the road in 2023, posting a 7-1 record at Hard Rock Stadium and are 4-4 on the road. Considering their road record, the Dolphins are playing for much more than just the AFC East.
Despite Buffalo being on the road with a worse record, they’re favored to win by 2.5 points. These teams matched up in Week 4, resulting in a 48-20 Buffalo win, and Bills quarterback Josh Allen played his best game of the season, completing 21 of 25 passes for 320 yards and four touchdowns.
Game for the AFC East Championship
Buffalo has the tiebreaker in this matchup if they were to win, making this the game for the division title.
The two franchises have both won 13 division championships, searching for their 14th. The New England Patriots currently have the most AFC East division titles with 22. The Dolphins haven’t won the AFC East since 2008, and Buffalo has won the last three.
While these two teams should be more concerned about playoff seeding than a division title, a game of this magnitude will serve as significant bragging rights in a rivalry that’s picked up steam the past couple of years.
Bills could still miss the playoffs
The stakes on Sunday, for the Bills, have a wide range of outcomes. With a win, they’re the No. 2 seed and will be awaiting the No. 7 seed in Buffalo for wild-card weekend. However, there’s a possibility that they could miss the playoffs entirely with a loss.
The Bills aren’t in a good tiebreaker situation with the other teams in the AFC. If Buffalo loses to Miami in Week 18, they’ll need one of Pittsburgh or Jacksonville to lose in order to secure a playoff spot.
Sean McDermott’s team could find themselves either earning the second seed or falling anywhere from the sixth seed, seventh seed or even missing the playoffs. Their game Sunday night is the final game of the week, so everyone will know the stakes of the outcome for the Bills at kickoff.
Biggest game of QB Tua Tagovailoa's career
Dolphins quarterback Tua Tagovailoa suits up for the biggest game of his career on Sunday. The narrative around Tagovailoa coming into the season was filled with questions about his ability to stay healthy. He’s silenced those questions by starting every game in 2023 while leading his team to a playoff berth.
The knock against Tagovailoa and the Dolphins is their inability to win games against the other contenders in the league. With everything else at stake, it still seems the Dolphins are coming into this matchup with a chip on their shoulders in regard to the contenders/pretenders conversation. In the games against Buffalo, Kansas City, Philadelphia and Baltimore, it was obvious Miami was the inferior team.
Tagovailoa hasn’t fared the best against the Bills in his young career. Josh Allen, on the other hand, has been great against the Dolphins in his career.
Tua Tagovailoa vs. Buffalo:
1-5 record, 5 TD, 5 INT, 79.6 ratingJosh Allen vs. Miami:
9-2 record, 31 TD, 5 INT, 110.8 rating— Joe Schad (@schadjoe) January 3, 2024
Tagovailoa will have to bring his best game on Sunday in what’s the biggest game of his career. This game has the making of a shootout, one that could see both teams scoring over 30 points.
After that, he’ll start in his first playoff game. This contest against Buffalo will determine whether he plays this playoff game at home in Miami or on the road in Kansas City. The stakes in Week 18 will be as close to a playoff atmosphere as Tagovailoa has seen. It’s a quality tune-up game before the real playoffs.
The Dolphins have key players on the injury report
Miami comes into this game with significant injuries both on the offense and defense.
The defense will be without linebacker Bradley Chubb for the rest of the season after the torn ACL suffered last week. Cornerback Xavien Howard will also be sidelined for Sunday’s contest with a foot injury.
Buffalo wide receiver Stefon Diggs caught three touchdowns in the first matchup between these two teams, and they’ll certainly be looking to get him involved often with a key corner missing for Miami. Diggs hasn’t eclipsed 100 receiving yards in any of his previous ten games, sparking noticeable frustration from the star receiver.
A weakened Miami defense gives Diggs a prime opportunity to end the regular season on a high note. It’ll be interesting to see if Jalen Ramsey shadows Diggs at all during the contest.
Running back Raheem Mostert and receiver Jaylen Waddle are both questionable on Sunday as well. Both were out last week against the Ravens, and neither is likely to be 100% healthy if they do suit up.
Mostert and Waddle are two of the most impactful players on Miami’s offense. If one or both of them are unable to go, the roles of receiver Tyreek Hill and running back De’Von Achane will increase significantly. Big games from both Hill and Achane would be key factors in helping the Dolphins’ offense keep up with Buffalo.
