The Houston Texans are setup nicely entering April to find their next franchise quarterback. Alabama’s Bryce Young and Ohio State’s C.J. Stroud are considered the top-2 signal callers. What is left to decide is which one the Carolina Panthers take at No. 1 overall.
Quarterbacks are generally one of the most important and controversial picks of any given draft and considered to be the ones most likely to change a franchise. The last five seasons have yielded a total of 17 first round draft picks at the position with a wide range of results.
Looking back on the scouting process, the results, and the information now available, there’s quite a lot to be gathered just from looking at the prospects and how teams navigated the board.
Here are some lessons general manager Nick Caserio may want to consider from quarterbacks drafted since 2018.
2018 — Not every trait is fixable
The 2018 draft saw Baker Mayfield, Sam Darnold, Josh Allen, Josh Rosen, and Lamar Jackson all selected in the first round. Jackson and Allen are now considered some of the few elite quarterbacks in the league while Rosen was a spectacular bust. The first two quarterbacks taken, Mayfield and Darnold, have underwhelmed to say the least.
Allen and Jackson serve as a powerful testament to what can be done with raw athletic ability. Both thrived early in their careers in offenses built off of their running ability and developed into high level NFL passers as their comfort in the professional game grew. Allen in particular evolved from one of the least accurate passers in his rookie class to one of the most dominant passers in the league. Jackson won an MVP in 2019 after finishing out the last eight games of the season in 2018, including playoffs.
Any concerns about overall accuracy or nuance as a passer were able to be overcome in strong supporting situations in Buffalo and Baltimore. The same cannot be said of some other pre-draft concerns.
Darnold was a prototypical passer with essentially every trait desirable. However, it was noted that Darnold severely struggled under pressure. Teams operated under the assumption that it could be worked through and he would naturally learn to feel comfortable in those situations. He never did. Darnold’s disastrous performance when the picture is messy has ultimately crippled his NFL career and is a big part of why he’s been on three NFL teams.
Mayfield may have won the Heisman Trophy but there were real concerns regarding his athleticism, which he leaned on at the college level and was unable to do so at the NFL level. Those ultimately came to their worse fruition as well. Mayfield’s physical limitations capped him as a simply “serviceable” quarterback and one who likely peaked in 2020 with the Cleveland Browns.
Funny to think about weaknesses that are and are not punished in the pre-draft process:
Justin Herbert and Justin Fields punished for their college schemes. Josh Allen for his mechanics.
Baker Mayfield given a pass for his athleticism. Sam Darnold's pocket awareness excused.
— John Crumpler (@JohnHCrumpler) April 3, 2023
Not every undesirable trait for an NFL prospect can be corrected. Technical skills such as coverage analysis and working on consistent accuracy may be more easily corrected than physical limitations or hinderances playing the game. These are questions Houston will have to ask about Young’s size, Will Levis’ poor pocket awareness, and Anthony Richardson’s inaccuracy.
2019 — Draft the player AND the person
The three first-rounders in 2019 were Kyler Murray, Daniel Jones, and Dwayne Haskins. Murray was the phenomenal Heisman-winner while Jones and Haskins were relegated to more of a second-tier quarterback prospect.
If there’s any major takeaway reflecting on this draft, it’s that teams will be responsible for having both the player on-the-field and the person off-the-field as part of their organization. Murray has been one of the 10 most talented quarterbacks in football since he entered the league. However, that’s not been what has defined his career. His questionable commitment to football, locker room drama, and approach to his injuries have rather written his story.
Nobody remembers that Murray was a prime MVP candidate well into 2021 because the year ended with a beyond porous performance against the Los Angeles Rams in the wild-card and transitioned into a messy contract extension and injury-marred 2022. Multiple public figures have called him out for his commitment to football and ability to lead the team.
As such, despite his clear talent over a player like Jones, very little separation is currently viewed in the eyes of the public. Neither are considered truly elite and both represent question marks for their organizations despite their differences in size, production and talent.
Contracts are about give-and-take. One example from #AZCardinals QB Kyler Murray’s $230.5M contract: There is an addendum that requires 4 hours of “independent study” per game week. It was important to the team making a commitment at that level, thus it was important to Murray. pic.twitter.com/VqrkvoBQLJ
— Ian Rapoport (@RapSheet) July 25, 2022
This month Houston will perform a host of top-30 visits including all of the top-5 quarterback prospects. Getting to understand these players, and who they can expect them to be, are a big part of that.
2020 — Evaluate the college player, not the college scheme
In 2020, Joe Burrow, Tua Tagovailoa and Justin Herbert were all considered top flight quarterback prospects. However, despite his physical prowess in the group, Herbert was considered a near-consensus third-best amongst the group.
This was largely in part to an Oregon offense that had not challenged Herbert. His big arm flashed on film but the downfield passing was not frequent in the system and they generally did not utilize his athleticism to the fullest intent. Compared to the passing circus put on by Tagovailoa in Alabama’s scheme, Herbert’s production profile paled in comparison.
The Los Angeles Chargers didn’t blink.
Immediately upon entering the league, Herbert’s arm talent and poise were noticeable as amongst the league’s best. Paired with receivers Mike Williams and Keenan Allen, Herbert broke the rookie record for passing touchdowns and looked like a different player than the one who had suited up for the Ducks.
Projecting players out of their college offenses and into the roles they’ll be asked to play in the NFL is an important part of the process. It’s an important aspect to consider before praising or criticizing someone like Stroud who comes from a very successful passing offense from Ohio State.
2021 — Meaningful production matters
Trevor Lawrence and Justin Fields had always been considered the best quarterbacks in their age group. Whether it was in high school, dueling in the College Football Playoff, or being side by side at the Heisman Trophy ceremony, Lawrence and Fields have been intertwined.
How then did Fields end up as the fourth quarterback selected after watching Zach Wilson and Trey Lance walk up the stage ahead of him?
Fields was seemingly punished for coming from Ohio State and given very little benefit of the doubt for the immense physical skillset that he would bring. His elite college production against the best opponents in the sport was ignored for different physical tools and different play styles.
Lawrence, Fields, and Alabama’s Mac Jones were the three most productive college players in their class. Shockingly, they have also been the three most productive NFL players in their class. Wilson and Lance have been relegated to backup roles and have fallen quite short of the hope NFL teams put towards their traits and the “idea” of those players.
It’s an incredibly difficult position to both scout and project towards the NFL, sometimes it doesn’t need to be overly complicated watching a great football player.
2022 — There is value is taking your guy
Last year, the Pittsburgh Steelers opted to take local Pitt Panther Kenny Pickett as the only first-round quarterback of the class. The Steelers are rarely picking in the top of the first round and had a clear need at the position after the retirement of Ben Roethlisberger.
The pick was criticized at the time, but a year later it looks much more favorable than people imagined. The Heisman Trophy finalist entered Pittsburgh surrounded by talent such as Najee Harris, Diontae Johnson, and George Pickens. Film analysts are quite fond of the player while others are quick to point to his 10 total touchdowns and nine interceptions over 12 starts.
Regardless of how anyone feels, Pittsburgh finished 9-8 and nearly made the playoffs behind a late season surge that saw Pickett finish as 7-5 as a starter. Organizationally, they seem to have confidence in him as a player and there’s a clear direction now for what the team has to do to improve.
Many around the league and those that cover the NFL are not huge on Pickett and believe there’s a relative ceiling to the player he can be. The Steelers have conviction he can be exactly what they need to win. There’s value to be found in trusting your internal conviction on a player and executing a plan. The future will tell if it was a good one.
