The Green Bay Packers (5-8) will welcome the defending champion Los Angeles Rams (4-9) to Lambeau Field for a primetime showdown between two of the more disappointing teams of the 2022 season.
The Rams will be officially eliminated from playoff contention with a loss; the Packers, for all intents and purposes, would also be eliminated with another loss. The loser on Monday night can start thinking about 2023.
Can the Packers keep their season alive at Lambeau Field?
Here are five keys to victory for Matt LaFleur’s team:
Stop the run
The Packers are giving up 5.0 yards per carry and rank 32nd in run defense DVOA this season. Lambeau Field will be frigid on Monday night, increasing the value of running the football. If the Rams can win some battles up front and establish the run, the Packers could be in trouble. Keep in mind, the Packers have lost four times this season when giving up fewer than 200 passing yards, so a dominant effort on the ground can be enough to beat Green Bay. Containing the run and forcing Baker Mayfield and the Rams into obvious passing situations should be a top priority.
Create explosive plays in the passing game
Running the football against the Rams could be tough. Los Angeles ranks fourth in yards per carry allowed, fifth in run defense DVOA and first in PFF run defense grade. Do the Packers want to bang their head against a brick wall over and over Monday night? Getting big plays down the field against a disappointing secondary is the antidote to a team capable of stopping the run. With Aaron Rodgers healthy, Christian Watson emerging and a full arsenal of wide receivers available, the Packers should feel confident about throwing the ball, especially considering the Rams’ lack of pass rush.
Win the turnover battle
The Packers picked off Baker Mayfield four times in a December game at Lambeau Field last season. Can Green Bay get a few more turnovers on Monday night? The Rams have 20 turnovers already this season, including 10 in the last five games. The Packers also need to avoid giveaways in this must-win scenario: the Rams have two takeaways in each of their last three games. In a battle between two middling teams, the turnover battle will likely tell the story.
Score touchdowns in the red zone
The Rams are very much a bend-but-don’t-break defense. Accumulating yards and first downs shouldn’t be a big issue for the Packers, but scoring inside the 20-yard line might be. The Rams rank second in the NFL in red zone scoring defense. Not finishing drives with seven points and settling for field goals is one way to keep an underdog in the game. Coming out of the bye, Matt LaFleur should have some new wrinkles ready for the Rams inside the red zone.
Take away Ben Skowronek
The Rams are decimated by injury at the wide receiver position. Cooper Kupp and Allen Robinson won’t play, but don’t underestimate Ben Skowronek, who caught seven passes on eight targets from Baker Mayfield last week. He’s a big, physical receiver with strong hands in contested situations. Skowronek looks like a good matchup for Rasul Douglas, who picked off Mayfield twice in the Packers’ meeting with the Browns last season. Jaire Alexander vs. Van Jefferson would be another matchup that favors Green Bay. If the Rams have to throw the ball to win, the Packers should be in good shape.
