The Chargers will enter Arrowhead Stadium on Sunday looking for their first victory over the Chiefs in two years. They’ll also be trying to beat Patrick Mahomes in what would only be the fourth AFC West loss of his career.
It’s a short week for the Chargers, who come off their Monday night loss to Dallas in need of a rebound. Los Angeles’ playoff odds this season would dip to below 30% in most scenarios with a loss on Sunday. Let’s talk about the major storylines that could impact their chances of avoiding that fate.
Who is on Travis Kelce duty?
Derwin James vs. Travis Kelce is always the matchup of interest when the Chargers play the Chiefs. It’s been a relatively competitive rivalry over the years.
Unfortunately for the Chargers, James injured his ankle in practice on Thursday and is now questionable for Sunday’s game. If he does play, is the Chargers’ star safety likely to be 100%, considering the injury just a few days prior? Probably not.
How important is Derwin James to defending Travis Kelce? #Chargers have played Chiefs four times since 2021.
Kelce with James on the field: 2.02 yards per route run
Kelce with James off the field: 6.68 yards per route run
(via @TruMediaSports) https://t.co/YoYbaE2vdN
— Daniel Popper (@danielrpopper) October 20, 2023
As The Athletic’s Daniel Popper indicated via TruMedia Sports, the Chargers give up 4.66 more yards per route run to Kelce when James isn’t on the field. Kelce’s most explosive moments in Chargers’ games have generally come with James unavailable to play due to injury.
So, what’s the plan if James can’t go against the All-Pro tight end? Michael Davis has covered snaps against Kelce in the past with his lanky frame. In that scenario, the Chargers would also probably rely somewhat on veteran safety Dean Marlowe. Neither is a favorable matchup in 2023, obviously.
Finding solutions is probably circling the drain to some extent without James. Hopefully, for the Chargers’ sake, he can give it a go on Sunday.
The volume of penalties is unacceptable
On 3rd and 11+ in 2023, the Chargers are dead last in the league in conversions allowed when penalties are factored in. The overall 3rd down conversion mark with penalties factored in is also 32nd in the NFL.
Last week, the Chargers yielded field position and downs on two critical drives for the Cowboys. James took a roughing the passer penalty on the first Dallas field goal drive to give Dallas 15 more yards. Ja’Sir Taylor and Michael Davis committed penalties on 3rd and 19 during the Cowboys’ game-winning field goal drive.
Simply put, the Chargers have not played disciplined football defensively in critical moments. It goes without saying that Mahomes usually makes defenses pay when they don’t get him off the field on 3rd down. The Chargers can’t make life harder on themselves by giving the Chiefs free downs.
Featuring Quentin Johnston
The Chiefs have a legitimate top-five cornerback room this year. Trent McDuffie is PFF’s highest-graded cornerback so far in 2023. He’ll presumably be responsible for Keenan Allen for most of the game. L’Jarius Sneed is playing pretty well, allowing only a 75.3 passer rating when targeted.
Sneed probably brackets Joshua Palmer on the outside. In previous games this year, the Chargers haven’t needed rookie wide receiver Quentin Johnston to be a factor in the offense. With the state of Steve Spagnuolo’s secondary and the loss of Mike Williams, this is a game where the Chargers need to feed Johnston targets.
The Chargers must figure out how to get him involved, whether it’s some easy middle-of-the-field targets or less predictable screens. If they do, it makes their offense a lot less predictable, as the Chiefs will have Allen on their minds as their primary receiving threat.
The interior offensive line vs. Chris Jones
The Chargers have felt the loss of Corey Linsley on the inside. The offensive line has given up three consecutive weeks of increased quarterback pressures. Will Clapp, Jamaree Salyer, and Zion Johnson did not have their best games against Dallas.
Rashawn Slater has also given up an unusual amount of pressures by his standard as he deals with an ankle injury. Micah Parsons and Maxx Crosby had great games against the Chargers on an individual basis, but they also opened up a lot of quality pass-rushing opportunities for their teammates.
Since his return from a contract dispute, Chris Jones has had 21 pressures and seven sacks in five games. He’s always given the Chargers problems in the past. The Chargers’ interior must have their best showing without Linsley if they plan to slow down Jones for any span of the game’s four quarters.
Containing Isiah Pacheco in short-yardage situations
Using Arjun Menon’s The Scout tool to look at the Chiefs’ tendencies on short downs, Kansas City is running on short-yardage situations more than usual. On 2nd and 2 or shorter situations, the Chiefs have run the ball 11 out of 12 times. In a departure from recent seasons for Kansas City, they’ve also run the ball 83% of the time on 3rd and 1 scenarios.
Running back Isiah Pacheco has also increased his stranglehold on the Chiefs’ primary running back role throughout the season. His rush shares of Kansas City’s offense hit a season-high 89% last week.
The Chargers have been better against the run this year, but they’ll be tested in the short-game scenarios against the Chiefs. At his Wednesday media availability, head coach Brandon Staley called Pacheco the “engine” of the Chiefs’ offense. To prevent the extension of long drives and potential explosive plays, the defensive line must get in the backfield and contain the former Rutgers’ running back.
