Week 3 is going to be a statement weekend in a lot of the NFL divisional races, and the players selected for this weeks player prop bets are going to have a significant role in whether their teams rise up or drop down in that effort.
We will look at one quarterback, two running backs, a wide receiver and a tight end – all of whom will be critical to the outcome of their respective games.
Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook
5
Philadelphia Eagles RB Miles Sanders OVER 63.5 rushing yards (-115)
The Eagles have been making headlines with their improved passing game, but Sanders has been huge against this week’s opponent (Washington Commanders). In his last two meetings, he has rushed 37 times for 253 yards and a touchdown – averaging almost seven yards a carry.
Because of the familiarity of division rivals, if something works, teams tend to stick to it. With an Over/Under of half the yards he has gained in the last two meetings, it won’t be much of a stretch to think that, despite a shift in how the Eagles offense operates, Sanders can reach 64 rushing yards.
4
Los Angeles Rams WR Cooper Kupp OVER 99.5 receiving yards (-120)
You can tell by this number (-120 Over, -110 Under) that the expectation is that Kupp will top 100 yards against the Arizona Cardinals. There a couple of reasons to believe that Kupp can once again hit triple digits.
In last year’s Rams-Cardinals game in Arizona – a game the Rams needed to win the NFC West – Matthew Stafford completed 13 passes to Kupp for 123 yards and a touchdown. The Rams haven’t replaced the production provided by Odell Beckham Jr. and Robert Woods so far this season, and Stafford has been forced to lean on Kupp.
The other reason Kupp should hit the Over is that the Cardinals pass defense has been brutal. Patrick Mahomes shredded them in Week 1, and Arizona needed an amazing second half comeback to defeat the Raiders. The defense has yet to step up, and there’s little reason to think that will change against L.A.
3
Minnesota Vikings QB Kirk Cousins UNDER 288.5 passing yards
Cousins has a 7-1 record against the Detroit Lions, including 4-0 at home, but Minnesota has run the ball much more against the Lions at home. Cousins has never approached this lofty number in any of those four home games (164, 242, 220, 275).
Running back Dalvin Cook has been the focus of Minnesota’s offense in those same games (50 carries for 357 yards and three rushing TDs). Coming off a painful loss in which Cousins threw three interceptions, look for Minnesota to be more cautious in its pass game and lean more on the run – making 289 passing yards a big mountain to climb.
2
Green Bay Packers RB Aaron Jones OVER 50.5 rushing yards (-115)
Jones has never blown up for a huge game against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, but the Packers are treading new ground with the dismantling of their wide receiver room in the offseason.
Through two games, Jones is averaging 9.1 yards a carry and has helped keep the Packers offense afloat while Aaron Rodgers builds chemistry with his new receivers.
The threat posed by A.J. Dillon is what is keeping Jones’ Over/Under numbers low, but the Packers are designing a game plan around both of them as central figures. You can likely expect 12-15 carries for Jones. If he hits in that range, gaining more than 50 yards becomes extremely likely.
1
Kansas City Chiefs TE Travis Kelce OVER 71.5 receiving yards (-115)
The Chiefs are rested after playing last Thursday and going against an Indianapolis Colts defense that hasn’t been able to shut down either Houston or Jacksonville – two of the worst teams in the AFC. Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs bring a much more formidable offense into Indy.
Kelce has averaged more than 90 yards a game in three career meetings with the Colts, including a pair of 100-yard games. The Colts haven’t been able to slow down opposing pass offenses and are again without star linebacker Shaquille Leonard, so it will come as no surprise to see Kelce come close to his career average of 90 yards a game – much less simply needing 72 to hit the Over.
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