We are now just hours away from Election Day 2024, and the Presidential race between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris appears to be as close as ever. There has been mixed information that has come in based on both polls and early voting numbers, and we’ll have to wait until late into the night on Tuesday (or perhaps even later) to find any clarity on a winner.
Given the neck-and-neck nature of the race, there are plenty of intriguing betting lines connected to the campaigns and election.
Here are 5 of the best election bets that Democrats can make for Election Day 2024.
5 Best Democratic Bets For Election Day 2024
1. Kamala Harris To Win Presidency: +116
The most popular and straight forward bet on the board will simply be “which presidential candidate will win the election?”. As it currently stands, Donald Trump is the overall favorite with a line -136. It is a number that has bounced around over the past few months, but a Republican victory has been the favorite for much of the election process.
That means that Kamala Harris is the underdog, and has a betting line attached to her name that could provide some good value. A $100 bet on a Democratic Presidential victory would pay out $116 in return, as the line sits currently, and would be all but a sure thing should the “Blue Wall” hold strong in Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Michigan.
2. Popular Vote Margin Of Victory: Harris 2.5% – 4.99% : +175
While Trump may have the slight edge in the betting line when it comes to the outcome of the electoral college and final result, Harris has a heavy lead in the odds for winning the popular vote. She is listed at -450 in that aspect, a line that doesn’t provide much value.
But wagering on just how much she wins that popular vote by could prove to be a good bet. Should Harris finish with a lead of anywhere between 2.5% and 4.99%, then a $100 bet would see a $175 profit. In 2020, the popular vote went to the Democrats, and the margin was 4.5%.
3. Democratic Victory In Pennsylvania: -130
Generally and historically a battleground state, Pennsylvania has voted Democratic in 7 of the last 8 elections. The 2016 election saw a Donald Trump victory of 0.7% in the state, but voted Democratic in each year before that, dating back to 1992.
It is the most valuable of the swing states with 19 electoral votes available, and is a part of the “blue wall” that the Democrats are hoping to sweep and get to the 270 mark. Polls are almost completely split when it comes to the 2024 election, but if history is any indication, then the -130 could provide plenty of betting value here.
4. “Blue Wall” Sweep: +110
The “Blue Wall” that Democrats are hoping to sweep includes the trio of Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin. In total, the three states are worth 39 electoral votes, which would give Kamala Harris exactly the 270 total needed votes based on current projections.
All three states swung in Trump’s favor in 2016, helping give him a victory over Hillary Clinton that year. But, all three have voted Democratic in each of the other 7 elections dating back to 1992, meaning that a Blue Wall Sweep happens far more often than not in recent history. Should it happen this year, a +110 represents a solid value.
5. Florida Republican Victory Margin Under 8.5%: -150
The state of Florida has voted Republican in each of the last two elections, and it figures to continue to be a red state in 2024. But could the race be closer than expected?
In 2016, Trump’s margin of victory in Florida was 1.2%, which was expanded to 3.3% in 2020. Given that information, the jump up to the 8.5% number that we see attached to this wager seems like a steep one. There are a couple of late factors that could play into a smaller margin of victory for the Republicans, including a possible influx of Puerto Rican voters in the state.
(Full Disclosure: All betting odds and markets sourced from BetOnline. Information accurate as of Nov. 3, 2024.)
