This Saturday is chock full of high-quality, NCAA tournament caliber matchups between a handful of teams that have legitimate title aspirations. There are five — yes, FIVE — ranked-ranked matchups on Saturday, with the first tipping at noon and the last getting underway at [groans in East Coast] 10:30 p.m.
We are getting a top-5 matchup when the No. 5 Houston Cougars travel to Charlottesville to face No. 2 Virginia, a top-10 meeting with No. 6 Tennessee at No. 9 Arizona and two top-15 matchups. It’s about as perfect of a men’s college basketball weekend as you can ask for in mid-December.
Let’s take a look the lines and who you should bet. All odds courtesy of BetMGM.
No. 14 Indiana at No. 8 Kansas
Time: 12 p.m. ET
Network: ESPN2
Location: Lawrence, Kansas
Neither of these teams have played in a week, and they are entering Saturday’s game coming off of two very different outcomes. The Jayhawks beat up on neighbor Missouri last weekend, winning the Border War with a convincing 95-67 victory. Indiana, on the other hand, suffered its second loss of the season in a lopsided affair against top-10 Arizona.
On paper, this should be a closely contested affair. KenPom predicts a five-point Kansas victory, which is about what the line is reading.
Our pick: Kansas (-6)
The Jayhawks struggled for a few games straight in mid-to-late November with close games against Southern Utah, N.C. State and Wisconsin, culminating in a 14-point loss to Tennessee. Since, however, Kansas has looked much better. The competition hasn’t been great, but the wins have been decisive and Jalen Wilson is a bonafide star.
No. 4 Alabama vs. No. 15 Gonzaga
Time: 1 p.m. ET
Network: CBS
Location: Birmingham, Alabama
This is technically a “semi-home” game for the Crimson Tide, playing in Birmingham versus Tuscaloosa. Alabama has not one but TWO wins over AP No. 1 teams this season, taking out North Carolina and Houston (though we can have the discussion about whether or not UNC deserved that top spot to begin with). Now it faces a Gonzaga squad that — for the first time in a couple seasons — could use another big win to bolster its nonconference resume.
Drew Timme and the Zags have wins over Michigan State, Kentucky and Xavier this season, but lost to Texas, Purdue and Baylor. None of those losses are bad (at all), but the only win Gonzaga has inside the KenPom top-30 is Kentucky. In fact, Alabama (KP No. 10) is one of three opportunities that Mark Few’s team has left against teams inside the top 20 with St. Mary’s sitting at No. 17. The next best WCC team? No. 93 BYU.
Our pick: Over (157.5)
Alabama is chaotic, turning it over a lot (21 percent of its possession) but plays outstanding defense. Can the Zags slow down the Tide’s offense and score enough against Bama? Regardless, this one feels like a lot of points.
No. 5 Houston at No. 2 Virginia
Time: 2 p.m. ET
Network: ESPN2
Location: Charlottesville, Virginia
You know all that stuff I just said about tons of points with Bama and Gonzaga? Take the opposite. Don’t get it twisted, though: this should be one of the more exciting games of the season.
One season after being one of the worst 3-point shooting teams in the country, Virginia is hitting just shy of 40 percent from deep, good for 18th nationally. The Cavaliers are getting to the free throw line at a rate that’s fourth in the country, and they are eighth best in the nation with assist rate at 66 percent. Ball movement will be crucial for the Hoos to overcome the length and speed of the Cougar defense.
Houston’s defense has the best block rate (20.5 percent), is second in 2-pt FG percentage against them (38.4 percent) and third best in 3-pt FG percentage by opponents (23.7 percent). Virginia has struggled from deep the last two games, hitting in the 23-25 percent range. If it wants to get the win over the Cougars, it’ll have to connect on more than that.
One big piece will be whether or not Virginia star Reece Beekman is healthy. Beekman has dealt with ankle and hamstring issues the last two games (which, unsurprisingly coincided with struggles against FSU and JMU) after sustaining an injury against Michigan. He’s had 11 days to rest and recover with UVA’s exam break, so it’ll be key for the Hoos to get their best defender and playmaker back.
Our pick: Under (113)
Houston has one of the — if not THE — best defenses in the country this season. Virginia is known for tenacious defense under Tony Bennett and has another top-20 defense this season. As someone that loves watching defense, this game is exactly my vibe. But as far as a lot of points? I wouldn’t bet on it.
No. 16 UCLA vs. No. 13 Kentucky
Time: 5:15 p.m. ET
Network: CBS
Location: New York, New York
The bright lights of Madison Square Garden are going to shine upon another huge game Saturday evening as two blue bloods square off. UCLA is entering the weekend on a heater after absolutely dominating No. 20 Maryland in College Park. Now the Bruins face Kentucky to see if they can keep building a stellar resume.
UCLA doesn’t have a real marquee win on the season after back-to-back losses to Illinois and Baylor in the Continental Tire Main Event in Las Vegas, but a win over the Wildcats would give it a big one.
Kentucky is in a similar boat. John Calipari’s squad has only played two KenPom top-40 teams this season (Michigan State and Gonzaga), and it’s lost both.
Our pick: UCLA (-1.5)
I’m honestly surprised the Bruins aren’t favored by more, and this is essentially a pick ’em, especially after the way UCLA dissected the Terps. Kentucky is a hard team to read this season, and I just think they’re not clicking the way the Bruins are at this point.
No. 6 Tennessee at No. 9 Arizona
Time: 10:30 p.m. ET
Network: ESPN2
Location: Tuscon, AZ
Wooo, buddy. Looks like I have to stay up late Saturday night. This one should be VERY interesting. While Tennessee’s offense and Arizona’s defense aren’t particularly thrilling, the Vol defense and Wildcat offense are the best in the nation. No, really. The best.
Arizona ranks No. 1 in KenPom’s offensive efficiency while the Tennessee defense is No. 1 in defensive efficiency. The Wildcats have an eFG percent of 61.6. The Vols are holding opponents to 36.8 percent. Who wins that battle?
Our pick: Tennessee (+120)
Defense wins championships, right? I went back and forth on this one, mostly because I’m worried about this Tennessee offense. What stands out to me, however, is that they share the ball well — assist a nation’s best 70.9 percent of their field goals — and they’re the best offensive rebounding team in the country. Arizona can score points, but Tennessee held Kansas (No. 14 offense) to just 50 points. The Vols could do it!
