Just like that, the Minnesota Vikings hopes of winning the NFC North were dashed. Instead of a Christmas miracle, the Vikings were handed a lump of coal with their 30-24 loss on Christmas Eve to the Detroit Lions. With the loss, Minnesota was eliminated from contention for the division title, and the Lions clinched their first division title since before the NFC North was even in existence.
The Vikings did a lot of things right in this game. Quarterback Nick Mullens was throwing the ball all over the field and notched his first career game with more than 400 yards passing. Minnesota was able to hold the Lions running game largely in check, and they made some big plays throughout the game when they needed it.
Unfortunately, as has been the case for much of the season, it was the unforced errors that ultimately doomed the Vikings. Mullens was doing his best impression of a baker out there, handing out turnovers left and right. He had four interceptions on the day, and could have easily walked out of there with a couple more.
He also had two plays where he narrowly avoided fumbling the ball. A four-turnover game was almost a blessing considering how much worse it could have been.
The turnover issues have been a theme throughout the season, but there were a lot of other areas of concern that this game exposed. Areas that have been a concern all season, but have largely been masked or glossed over in one way or another. Let’s take a look at five of those areas of concern that the loss against the Detroit Lions exposed.
Vikings have serious issues at QB
This feels a bit on-the-nose, but it bears pointing out: The Vikings clearly have some serious issues at the quarterback position. Those issues have been on full display the past three weeks, and they don’t seem to be getting any better.
Yes, any team that loses their starting QB during the season is likely to be in trouble, but the fact that these troubles have been so consistent is an indicator that the future might be bleak in Minnesota.
From what we’ve seen this season, Josh Dobbs isn’t the answer at quarterback if Kirk Cousins isn’t there. Neither is Nick Mullens. Both quarterbacks have had their high points, but neither one has been able to take care of the ball and have turned it over at a rate way too high to be trusted as anything more than a spot starter. Where that becomes a problem is with the ambiguity of Kirk Cousins and his situation.
At 36 with an expiring contract and coming off an Achilles injury, there are legitimate questions about whether or not Cousins will be in purple and gold next season. If Cousins doesn’t come back, the answer at quarterback for the future isn’t currently on the roster – pending whether or not we see anything from Jaren Hall these last two weeks.
If we don’t, the Vikings officially enter the dreaded ‘quarterback purgatory’. They’ll be put into a situation where they either have few options. One is to acquiesce to Cousins and whatever contract demands he has, knowing full well that he’s aging and coming off a serious injury.
If that’s not a scenario they’re amenable to, they could turn to the NFL draft. Unfortunately, with the success they’ve had this season – it’s easy to forget in the recent collapse, but they’re still in the NFC playoff picture – they’re not going to be in a position to draft one of the top QBs in the 2024 NFL draft.
Yes, quarterbacks – including Cousins himself – drafted outside the top 10, or even the first round entirely, have found success. But it’s far less likely, and not a position you want to be in when you’re looking for the guy who’s going to lead you into the future.
So, if the QB of the future isn’t on the roster right now, and the NFL draft isn’t likely to help, what other option is there? Free agency. Which is even more unlikely to spawn the QB who can lead the Vikings into the promised land.
The Vikings potentially have a massive problem on their hands that could take multiple years to find a solution to.
Offensive line needs a serious upgrade
Moving on from the quarterback, there are a few other areas of the team that the loss to the Lions really exposed that fans and media alike need to acknowledge is an issue. Namely, the offensive line. Fans have been on this one all season, but many – myself included – have been defending the performance of the offensive line.
By and large, they’ve looked at worst like an average unit, and at times have looked pretty good.
But it’s becoming increasingly difficult to look past the constant pressure that’s getting through the offensive line, particularly through the middle of the line. Some of that can be placed at the feet of the quarterback. When QBs aren’t hitting their marks, aren’t trusting their eyes and hitting their reads, and otherwise making the o-line’s job difficult, it’s tough to place the blame solely on the guys up front. And that has been a lot of the justification for their play.
However, all season – and particularly this week against the Lions – the pressure has been there regardless of whether or not the quarterback was doing the right things. Too often the offensive line is being a turnstile for pressure.
In particular, the offensive line has been severely lacking in their communication and ability to pass off blockers. Stunts, twists, and blitzes up the middle of the line have been particularly effective all season, and they were again on Sunday.
Some of that is due to missing center Garrett Bradbury for a time, trading away Ezra Cleveland, and having Dalton Risner in and out of the lineup. But it has become clear that the Vikings are going to need to bring in some help along the offensive line, and it should likely come in the form of a guard.
Unlike the situation at quarterback, the NFL Draft should be the first option for solving this problem. The Vikings should be in prime position to grab one of the top guards in the class. One rookie isn’t likely to solve all the problems, but it’s a good start.
Kevin O’Connell needs a play caller
I’m going to say something that’s a bit controversial in some Vikings circles: Kevin O’Connell is a good head coach. All-in-all, he’s done a masterful job with the team this season. When a team starts four different guys at quarterback in a season, that should lead to that team being one of the worst in the league. Instead, the Vikings came into Week 16 with a chance to win the division, and head into Week 17 still having a chance at the playoffs.
That is indicative of great coaching. Being able to adapt to suboptimal conditions and keep your team motivated is one of the defining factors of a good coach.
And that’s just talking about the quarterback position, not even mentioning the other injuries this team has had to deal with. It seems like every week they’re losing another key guy – like DJ Wonnum, T.J. Hockenson, and Jordan Addison against the Lions.
The criticism of O’Connell as a head coach have been many, and largely unwarranted in my opinion. One criticism; however, is completely legitimate: his play calling.
O’Connell has done a wonderful job with the team on the whole, but there has been a lot of questionable play calling, especially in late-game scenarios. He’s had to defend his choices in numerous post-game press conferences, and it has become an unfortunate trend throughout the season.
We’re at the point where I think it’s clear that there is a bit more on O’Connell’s plate than he can handle. O’Connell has been very good in the day-to-day operations of a head coach. He’s done well to keep his team motivated in the face of what are usually insurmountable odds.
That speaks well to his ability. But when it comes to gameday, he’s lacking. Bringing in an offensive coordinator who is familiar with the scheme and knows what O’Connell wants to do on offense could be a huge benefit to a team with all the parts to be successful.
Fourth down defense
Moving on from the offensive issues, we turn our focus to the defense. This squad has largely carried the Vikings on their backs this season. Minnesota, led by defensive coordinator Brian Flores, has employed one of the most unique schemes in the NFL this season for their defense, and it has paid significant dividends.
Minnesota has been one of the top defenses all season, and it’s been due to the fact that you never know what you’re going to get on any given play.
Flores as a defensive coordinator has always valued ambiguity. Whether that’s positional ambiguity with guys like Minkah Fitzpatrick and now Josh Metellus, or ambiguity in the defense as a whole. Minnesota is one of the most blitz-heavy defenses in the NFL this season, but they’ve also dropped eight guys into coverage more than just about anyone this year.
You just never know whether they’re bringing the house or dropping everyone and cutting off the throwing lanes, and it’s largely been wildly successful.
Where that success stops, however, is on fourth down. Now, we can quibble about how much of an issue this really is, as fourth down conversions don’t pop up that much in any given game. However, the Vikings defense has been atrocious at stopping teams in this scenario.
At one point Sunday’s broadcast displayed a graphic showing the Vikings defense has allowed a conversion on fourth down 70% of the time. That percentage was 100% against the Lions, with Detroit converting both of their fourth down attempts.
It’s hard to win games in the NFL. It’s almost impossible to win games when you’re giving the other teams extra possessions. The Vikings have been killed this year giving teams extra possessions.
Yes, the lion’s share of those possessions have come from the turnover issues on the offense, but the defense isn’t doing themselves any favors when it comes to getting teams off the field on fourth down. That’s an area that Flores is going to have to address these last two weeks and heading into the offseason.
Struggles in middle-of-field coverage
One of the main benefits of dropping eight guys into coverage is that it – at least in theory – cuts off throwing lanes and makes it more difficult for the quarterback to find an open guy. Unfortunately for the Vikings – particularly on Sunday against the Lions – this wasn’t the case, as the Lions had an answer for this in the form of their dagger and bow concepts.
These concepts are in-breaking routes meant to stress a defense playing a Cover-2 shell by putting the linebackers and safeties in conflict, making it difficult on the defense to communicate and know who has the coverage responsibilities.
The Lions used these concepts over and over again to get easy yards against an otherwise tight defense. While the Lions shined a light on Minnesota’s struggles in this area, it’s an issue that has been there all season.
Minnesota only has one linebacker who has a top-20 coverage score by PFF grade. PFF isn’t the ultimate arbiter of who is and is not a good player at their position, of course, but it does provide a nice barometer with which to judge. When you combine the PFF grade with what you see going on during the games, it’s clear that this defense struggles to protect the middle of the field.
They mask a lot of their issues with their ability to bring pressure and to confuse the opposing quarterback by masking their intent. However, when you play a smart and savvy veteran like the Lions’ Jared Goff, those masking factors are limited. And that is exactly what we saw on Sunday.
The Vikings couldn’t mask their deficiencies, and the Lions took advantage. It’s low on the list of priorities for the Vikings to address, but it is something they should be aware of and look to improve upon if circumstances allow.
