The 49ers’ offensive calling card is their ability to throw such a variety of pitches at the opposing defense that the opposing defense can’t quite play as fast as it wants or needs to keep up with San Francisco’s glut of playmakers. Head coach Kyle Shanahan’s ability to understand what defenses want to do against particular looks, and then design play calls to combat those defensive calls is why the 49ers are able to stay ahead of the league on offense.
One trend from last season indicates the 49ers could be moving a new direction.
To combat modern offenses that have moved to a quicker, more horizontal approach, defenses have gotten smaller and lighter to try and slow down hyper-efficient modern passing attacks.
It looks like San Francisco’s answer to that is to get bigger.
Last year the 49ers ran 11 personnel (one running back, one tight end) just 38.4 percent of their plays according to Sumer Sports. That was the second-lowest rate in the league. In 2022 they were at 42.6 percent.
21 personnel (two tight ends, one running back) remained their bread and butter with a 37.8 percent usage — the second-highest rate in the league and in line with their league-high 34 percen the year prior.
However, we saw the 49ers use a ton of 22 personnel as well (two TEs, two RBs). Their 9.1 percent usage rate of 22 was the second-highest in the league and 7.8 percentage points higher than the NFL average per Sumer Sports. It was also 3.0 percentage points higher than their 22 usage in 2022.
That 22 personnel grouping is particularly interesting given that the 49ers signed TE Logan Thomas in free agency. Thomas is a bonafide pass-catching TE in the NFL who last season had as many catches (55) as former 49ers reserve TEs Ross Dwelley and Charlie Woerner had in their careers with San Francisco.
The 49ers despite not having a second pass-catching threat at TE managed to rank first in overall expected points added out of 22 personnel at 0.41 EPA/play. Their EPA/pass was a whopping 1.01, while their EPA/rush was 0.09.
San Francisco only threw it 34.8 percent of the time out of 22 personnel, and that’s where we may see a change this season.
Non-George Kittle TEs caught only four passes for 44 yards last season on five targets. One of those catches and 20 of those yards came in the final game of the year when Kittle didn’t play, which means the non-Kittle TE numbers last year were three receptions for 24 yards when Kittle was on the field.
We could see not only a greater usage of 22 from the 49ers this year, but more passing out of those formations as well since the versatility given by Kittle, Thomas, fullback Kyle Juszczyk and running back Christian McCaffrey could ostensibly turn this run-heavy formation into an empty backfield, five wide receiver look. They thrived throwing out of this formation last season with a second TE that was a non-factor in the passing game. Now with Thomas, Shanahan will be able to diversify that personnel group and make his play calls less predictable.
The offshoot of this is a potential uptick in 12 personnel (one RB, two TEs). Juszczyk’s versatility has allowed the 49ers to run 21 that looks like 12 because their fullback can basically work as another TE. Last season out of pure 12 personnel, which the 49ers ran at the eighth-lowest rate in the NFL, San Francisco actually had a negative EPA/rush. Probably in part because teams could load up to stop the run knowing the other TE wasn’t going to be much of a threat, although there are a slew of factors that could lead to such poor production from one of the NFL’s best rushing attacks.
Shanahan’s offenses always evolve just ahead of the NFL curve, and then teams will tend to move whichever direction he goes. Given what we know about how defensive personnel has changed, the successes the 49ers had last year, and what they did in this offseason — don’t be surprised if we see San Francisco lean more on size this season as they get out in front of the pendulum swing back toward the direction of old-school, smash mouth football.
