With five weeks of the 2023 NFL season complete, 49ers second-year quarterback Brock Purdy is squarely in the middle of the MVP conversation. Regardless of the quibbles about where he ranks among NFL signal callers, his status as a Most Valuable Player candidate can’t really be disputed.
There’s an argument to be made that Purdy isn’t even the 49ers’ MVP. Some would bestow that honor on running back Christian McCaffrey, who himself has a legitimate MVP case.
However, given what we know about the MVP award and who it goes to (quarterbacks, FYI!), it’s becoming increasingly clear that Purdy is the 49ers player most likely to garner votes at season’s end.
Part of the reason is his position. A quarterback has been the league’s MVP in each of the last 10 seasons. Other outstanding offensive performers land in the Offensive Player of the Year voting.
With that on his side, we can now turn to the numbers (because voters are probably not grinding All-22 to decipher if Purdy’s stats are “real” or not).
Purdy through five games is completing 72.1 percent of his throws, averaging 9.4 yards per attempt and racked up a quarterback rating of 123.1 thanks in large part to his nine touchdowns and zero interceptions. He’s also accounted for at least one touchdown in all five games so far for San Francisco. Purdy is on pace to throw for 4,321 yards and 31 touchdowns.
Those yardage and touchdown totals with a completion rate around 70 and a YPA above or near 9.0 would be undeniable MVP numbers. For reference, Aaron Rodgers in 2020 and 2021 was the MVP twice and averaged 4,470 yards with 45 touchdowns, a 69.8 percent completion rate and 8.0 yards per attempt.
The key will be the 49ers’ continued team success though. An MVP isn’t likely to come from a losing team. If San Francisco is winning 13 or 14 games and sitting atop the NFC at season’s end, and Purdy keeps up the pace he’s set through five games, all eyes will turn to the QB. That’s just how it goes, unless McCaffrey winds up putting together an all-time season where he rushes for 2,000 yards and scores 30 touchdowns.
Heading into Week 5, McCaffrey probably had a better MVP case than Purdy. After a Week 5 performance though where the Cowboys focused heavily on stopping McCaffrey which opened the door for four Purdy touchdown passes, the pendulum which is heavily weighted toward the QB, swung back in Purdy’s favor.
There’s a lot of football left, and MVP awards aren’t handed out based on production in the first month. Purdy has a lot of work to do to maintain his level of play, and the 49ers have a lot of work to do to stay atop the NFC.
Maybe Purdy is or isn’t one of the 10 or 15 best QBs in the league. That debate can rage on forever. What’s not debatable at this point is whether Purdy’s name belongs in early MVP chatter. It very much does, and the longer he plays this well, the longer it’ll remain.
