A 33-17 win over the Dolphins was supposed to firmly establish the 49ers as a Super Bowl contender. Instead they saw their playoff odds actually drop on Football Outsiders thanks to a season-ending foot injury for quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo.
It wasn’t a precipitous fall, but the football analytics site’s model clearly believes there’ll be a large enough drop off in play between Garoppolo and Brock Purdy to tick down their chances just a bit.
Their overall playoff chances dipped 2.5 percent, but they’re still in very good shape according to the Football Outsiders table:
Playoffs: 93.4 percent
Division: 76.6 percent
Wild Card: 16.9 percent
The 49ers probably need to win two of their final five games to simply secure a playoff spot. If they can make one of those two wins their Thursday night bout with Seattle in Week 15, they might even be able to still secure the division crown.
We’re reaching the point of the year though where seeding will become more crucial for San Francisco than just making it to the postseason.
Football Outsiders has the No. 3 seed as the most likely landing spot for San Francisco:
No. 1: 0.5 percent
No. 2: 23.6 percent
No. 3: 47.1 percent
No. 4: 5.4 percent
No. 5: 0.3 percent
No. 6: 8.7 percent
No. 7: 7.9 percent
Should the 49ers secure the third seed they’d be guaranteed at least one home playoff game. They’d host the No. 6 seed in the Wild Card round.
If they wind up with one of the final two wild-card spots, they’d visit either the No. 2 or 3 seed.
Despite the devastating injury to Garoppolo the 49ers are still in a prime spot to make the postseason and the favorites to win the division. If they can stabilize with Purdy under center and continue getting behind their defense, they’ll be a tough out in January.
