The 49ers originally built their Super Bowl window on a foundation of successful draft picks and a couple of key free agent signings. Then they took the next logical step and became big players in the free agent market to plug holes on the roster. Now they’re in a space where they need the draft picks to start producing again.
Part of San Francisco’s issues with its top-heavy roster is that their depth struggled. An injury to Dre Greenlaw in the Super Bowl derailed them more than it probably should have. They also had problems on the offensive front and in the secondary when injuries cropped up.
Their solutions to almost all of their roster shortcomings were aging veteran free agents. Meanwhile their nine-player draft class was one of the NFL’s least effective. Their most productive rookie was kicker Jake Moody, and Ji’Ayir Brown’s two starts were the only non-kicker starts for the entire first-year class.
This isn’t to say San Francisco needs to draft a bunch of Fred Warners and George Kittles every year. Players don’t typically come out of the gate as productive as they were as rookies.
However, being able to turn to cost-controlled draft picks as solutions to roster holes is the path to sustainability for the 49ers. It didn’t matter much in 2023 since they did ultimately reach the Super Bowl and came within a play or two of winning it. Going beyond 2023 though there has to be more from their draft classes.
This core that’s been together for most or all of their five-year run of Super Bowl contention is going to age out, and they won’t be able to be replaced by free agents – especially if quarterback Brock Purdy gets paid a deal that’s up near the top of the QB market.
Those draft contributions have to start sooner than later. San Francisco has already restructured a bunch of their big contracts and pushed that money into the future, and heading into 2024 they’ll be able to get under the cap without any dramatic moves, but they’re not likely to have the short and long-term flexibility to make a massive free agent addition like they did with defensive tackle Javon Hargrave last offseason. That’s where draft picks come in. Thanks to the rookie wage scale an impactful draft selection on their first contract can be a major boon for a team looking to extend a Super Bowl window like the 49ers are trying to do.
Perhaps the 2023 class is more impactful in its second season. They’ll need it, and they’ll need more from the 2024 group since they’ll have four picks in the first three rounds, including their own first and second-round selections. If the 49ers can hit on a couple of picks this year, and find a handful of starters or very capable backups from the 2023 group, it’s much easier to envision the 49ers continuing to compete for Super Bowls than it is if they keep leaning on free agency.
