The 49ers’ 2022 season hasn’t gone according to plan. After six weeks they’re 3-3, and crushed by injuries, including one to starting QB Trey Lance which derailed the club’s development plan for the former No. 3 overall pick. Despite all of that and the adversity they’ve faced going into a Week 7 matchup against the Chiefs, San Francisco is still first in the NFC West with by far the best chance to win the division in the Football Outsiders playoff odds calculations.
Football Outsiders for their playoff odds simulates a season 50,000 times and assigns wins and losses based on their metrics.
After Week 6 where the 49ers got thumped by the Atlanta Falcons, San Francisco still sits with a better than 50 percent chance to win the NFC West – nearly double that of the second-place Rams. Here are the division odds from Football Outsiders:
49ers: 51.2 percent
Rams: 25.8 percent
Seahawks: 20.1 percent
Cardinals: 2.9 percent
If they get healthy down the stretch the 49ers are the least flawed team in the division, and they’re already 2-0 inside the division with convincing victories over the Seahawks and Rams.
San Francisco’s odds to just make the playoffs are also still strong. They’re a 16.3 percent chance to win a wild card spot, giving them a 67.5 percent chance to make the playoffs. The full NFC West playoff outlook:
49ers: 67.5 percent
Rams: 44.0 percent
Seahawks: 36.8 percent
Cardinals: 6.6 percent
It would take a pretty monumental collapse for the 49ers to not wind up in the postseason. They’re already in the thick of it despite the injury woes. If they can get relatively healthy going into November it sets them up to play their best football heading down the stretch in a division where no team is rising to the top.
Lots can change in the NFL week over week though, and the 49ers know health isn’t something that can be taken for granted. However, these numbers are good to keep in mind when considering their early-season struggles. Hiccups in September in October can be overcome in November and December. If the 49ers can stay afloat and get right for the final seven or eight weeks of the regular season, they should at least secure a playoff spot and they might even cruise to a division win.
