After clinching another AFC North crown, Bengals quarterback Joe Burrow made a bold statement: “The window is my whole career.”
That memorable quote, obviously, generated headlines partly because Super Bowl windows close quickly in the NFL, a grueling league with unstable rosters and brief careers. But not many had issues with Burrow’s confidence.
Three years into his pro career, he’s already an established elite quarterback, and a proven winner by taking the Bengals to a Super Bowl and back-to-back AFC championship game appearances. Burrow’s future is bright, and there aren’t many reasons to doubt his bold claim.
Probably only Burrow and Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes can get away with saying the window is always open, but Mahomes doesn’t need the public to believe him. Mahomes has results as a two-time Super Bowl champion and two-time MVP, and more important, the Chiefs have shown they can withstand yearly roster turnover due to a tight salary cap due to Mahomes’s lucrative nonrookie contract. The Chiefs won the Super Bowl after they traded star wide receiver Tyreek Hill to the Dolphins last season.
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The Chiefs will truly have a yearly Super Bowl window as long as Mahomes, coach Andy Reid and general manager Brett Veach are in Kansas City.
Burrow’s bold claim of a yearly open window will be tested after he signs his massive contract extension with the Bengals, who will be forced to make tough roster decisions for years to come to account for his contract. For now, Burrow’s words carry weight due to his skill set and winning track record.
Heading into the 2023 season, the Bengals and Chiefs are the only two contenders that don’t need to worry about the Super Bowl window closing, which occurred this offseason for the now rebuilding Rams and Buccaneers. But those teams can at least say they won a Super Bowl before starting this new phase of rebuilding the window, joining the Cardinals, Falcons, Panthers, Bears, Texans and Colts as teams in the midst of building a competitive roster.
The Titans also had their Super Bowl window closed after missing the postseason for the first time since 2018, and their offseason moves indicate they have joined the rebuilding group. It’s tough to tell whether the Packers had their Super Bowl window closed after trading Aaron Rodgers to the Jets or it remains open because they had insurance after planning ahead with the ’20 draft selection of quarterback Jordan Love.
For other teams such as the Giants, Browns, Commanders, Patriots, Steelers and Raiders, it’s unknown whether their window will actually open come Week 1. These teams are known as the average teams with a few making the postseason with wild-card spots.
The Jaguars, Lions and Seahawks have a nice breeze coming through their recently opened Super Bowl window and appear ready to make noise for the foreseeable future. But they might not be considered serious Super Bowl contenders and appear a year away from joining the next tier of windows.
Let’s highlight 11 teams with Super Bowl windows that might be on the verge of closing after the 2023 season.
11. Denver Broncos
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Some might be laughing about the Broncos being considered one of 11 teams with a Super Bowl window, but the second the trade for Russell Wilson became official, the pressure drastically increased to win now. The disastrous Year 1 results with Wilson, however, gave Denver buyer’s remorse, and, to make matters worse, there wasn’t an option to rebuild because the organization handed Wilson a massive contract extension before playing a game with the Broncos and sending multiple first-round picks to the Seahawks.
The Broncos don’t belong in the Super Bowl window category, but they’re stuck with the hefty Wilson investment and hired coach Sean Payton, signifying they’re still in win-now mode. With Wilson and Payton, the window is slightly open, and perhaps this new coaching regime will provide the team with some breathing room. But Payton might want that window shut after the season, so he can start a proper rebuild with his players and not the ones he inherited. Regardless of the Broncos’ true intentions of winning in 2023, they need to reignite Wilson’s career just to have the option of trading him and his massive contract.
If Wilson has another lackluster season, the Broncos might enter tank mode before rebuilding. The Broncos could opt to take the massive cap hit of $49.6 million for cutting Wilson next year. But before the worst-case scenario, the Broncos appear set on competing with Wilson for at least one more season.
10. Minnesota Vikings
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The Vikings are in limbo as a team trying to win now but with a wandering eye for a future that might not include quarterback Kirk Cousins. With so much uncertainty, the Vikings could be setting themselves up for a losing season, thus ending their window with Cousins, who has no guaranteed money left on his contract past this season. The Vikings could be done giving Cousins short-term extensions with only one postseason victory since he arrived in Minnesota in 2018.
But the Vikings have wide receiver Justin Jefferson, arguably the best offensive playmaker in the NFL, and that might be enough for them to return to the postseason. Jefferson will likely be around for multiple windows in Minnesota, but this might be the last year with Cousins, defensive end Danielle Hunter and safety Harrison Smith, three core players with minimal playoff success with the Vikings. Regardless of what happens this season, the Vikings appear set on revamping the roster with different core players around Jefferson.
9. New Orleans Saints
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The Saints have refused to close their Super Bowl window since Drew Brees retired and Payton’s departure by restructuring contracts of star players with hopes of making one more Super Bowl run with the veteran group of running back Alvin Kamara, wide receiver Michael Thomas, cornerback Marshon Lattimore, defensive end Cameron Jordan and linebacker Demario Davis.
With hopes of still contending for a Super Bowl, the Saints signed quarterback Derek Carr to help them possibly win the lackluster NFC South, where the rebuilding Panthers, Falcons and Buccaneers reside. If the Saints make it to the postseason, anything can happen. However, they probably can’t hang with the Eagles and 49ers if those teams remain healthy come the NFC playoffs.
Also, if Carr doesn’t lead them to the postseason, the Saints might finally let the window close and begin the process of rebuilding the roster and creating cap space. With a top-heavy roster with aging veterans, this might be a lengthy rebuild for the Saints, but they rarely worry about the future consequences and are all in for at least one more season.
8. Dallas Cowboys
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The window might be closing fast on the Cowboys with quarterback Dak Prescott in the third year of a four-year extension. Prescott would have helped his contract situation in January had he delivered a postseason victory against the 49ers in the divisional round, where so many Cowboys seasons have abruptly ended since the glory years of the 1990s. Dallas hasn’t advanced to an NFC championship game since ’95, and have won only two playoff games since Prescott became the starter in 2016.
The Cowboys, who released running back Ezekiel Elliott in March, have reached a crossroads and will need to decide whether Prescott has what it takes to take them to the Super Bowl. This might be a make-or-break season for Prescott, but the Cowboys could be reluctant to start a full rebuild and give him a short-term contract, similar to what the Vikings have done with Cousins.
But with a strong nucleus of players featuring edge rusher Micah Parsons and wide receiver CeeDee Lamb, the Cowboys shouldn’t be afraid to explore other options if Prescott doesn’t deliver this season.
7. Baltimore Ravens
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With the Ravens locking down quarterback Lamar Jackson to a five-year contract extension and with the organization’s track record of maintaining a competitive roster, Baltimore could have a Super Bowl window for years to come. But can Jackson be the one to lead them to another Lombardi Trophy with only one playoff win on his résumé?
It got ugly at times between Jackson and the Ravens during contract negotiations. The former MVP quarterback announced on social media he requested a trade in March, but the two sides might have mended fences after the team signed wide receiver Odell Beckham Jr. The Ravens also added another offensive weapon for Jackson, drafting speedy wideout Zay Flowers. With Jackson receiving offensive help and signing a new contract, he now appears set on building a future with the Ravens and extending their Super Bowl window.
6. Miami Dolphins
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The Dolphins have taken the Rams’ blueprint of quickly building a Super Bowl team by trading for star players. In the past year, the Dolphins have acquired wide receiver Tyreek Hill, edge rusher Bradley Chubb and cornerback Jalen Ramsey.
The aggressive approach paid off for the Rams because they won a Super Bowl, but it also provided proof that going all in lasts for only a few seasons, and the aftermath likely means a few losing seasons to repair the salary cap. The Dolphins, however, have flexibility because quarterback Tua Tagovailoa is currently on his rookie deal.
But it’s unknown whether Tagovailoa is more like Jared Goff or Matthew Stafford in this Rams-like blueprint for the Dolphins. Tagovailoa’s play on the field will determine whether the Dolphins capitalize on all these moves. If the 2020 first-round pick struggles, the Dolphins will likely need to execute one more blockbuster trade, one that involves a star quarterback.
5. Los Angeles Chargers
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The Chargers created a Super Bowl window last year trading for Khalil Mack and splurging in free agency. But all they had to show for it was a blown 27–0 lead against the Jaguars in the wild-card round. This core group is good enough to contend again in 2023, but the window is closing fast with star players in the back end of their prime and Justin Herbert’s looming massive contract extension that will likely shrink the Chargers’ salary cap for years to come.
Last year didn’t go as planned for the Chargers, but they proved they could compete without Herbert having to carry the heavy workload. Coach Brandon Staley’s defense finally showed signs of improvement last season and could be a top unit this year with safety Derwin James, edge rusher Joey Bosa, Mack and linebacker Eric Kendricks leading the charge.
The Chargers will likely have other windows throughout the Herbert era, but unfortunately for them, they play in the same division as Mahomes and the Chiefs. As history shows, it’s tough for NFL teams to repeat as Super Bowl champions. This might be the perfect year for the Chargers to overtake the Chiefs in the AFC West and make a deep postseason run.
4. Buffalo Bills
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Stefon Diggs’s frustrations during the lopsided divisional playoff loss to the Bengals signified how time is against the Bills to capitalize on the Super Bowl window he and star quarterback Josh Allen have created. Allen’s vast improvements, Diggs’s arrival and a trip to the AFC championship game in 2020 was the start of the Bills’ memorable run, but they have stalled with back-to-back exits in the divisional round, and this might be the last year with this core group.
The Bills said goodbye to a few key players such as linebacker Tremaine Edmunds due to a tight salary cap, but they managed to retain safety Jordan Poyer for one more crack at making the Super Bowl. The Bills are infamous for losing four consecutive Super Bowls, and this group might also be remembered for the wrong reasons if they don’t at least advance to one Super Bowl.
Allen has plenty to prove after being outplayed by Burrow in the postseason. With the additions of running back Damien Harris and tight end Dalton Kincaid, and a healthy Von Miller on defense, the Bills will once again have one of the best rosters in the NFL.
3. Philadelphia Eagles
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Unlike the Bills, the Eagles probably don’t feel a sense of urgency because GM Howie Roseman has a knack for quickly retooling rosters, and they won the Super Bowl in 2017. But many veterans such as center Jason Kelce, defensive end Brandon Graham and defensive tackle Fletcher Cox likely decided to return to Philadelphia for another year because they wanted to win a Super Bowl with Jalen Hurts, the star quarterback who leaped into superstardom last season with his play on the field.
This will likely be Hurts’s last year with those veterans, and it might be hard for Roseman to maintain a winning roster with Hurts signing a massive extension to stay in Philadelphia. Roseman, however, got off to a productive start drafting defensive tackle Jalen Carter and edge rusher Nolan Smith in the first round this year. Hitting on draft picks is a big reason why Mahomes and the Chiefs remain competitive despite a tight salary cap.
The Eagles are in a good place to compete for the foreseeable future with wide receivers DeVonta Smith and A.J. Brown and cornerbacks James Bradberry and Darius Slay. But nothing is ever guaranteed in the NFL. The Eagles waited several decades to win the franchise’s first Super Bowl.
2. New York Jets
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After lengthy trade negotiations, the Jets finally acquired quarterback Aaron Rodgers from Green Bay and created a one- to two-year window to end the organization’s Super Bowl title drought of more than five decades.
Rodgers is coming off a down season for his lofty standards, but he dealt with injuries and had an inexperienced supporting cast because the Packers traded star wideout Davante Adams to the Raiders. Now Rodgers will throw to rising star wide receiver Garrett Wilson and will have the luxury of playing with a standout defense featuring shutdown cornerback Sauce Gardner.
There’s plenty of unknown with the Jets because Robert Saleh has plenty to prove as a head coach, and the franchise hasn’t made the postseason since 2010 when Mark Sanchez was the starting quarterback. Also, Rodgers has plenty to prove because he’s regarded as one of the greatest quarterbacks of all time and has only one Super Bowl title. The Jets, however, have gone down this road before during a dreadful ’08 season with Brett Favre.
But Tom Brady proved in Tampa Bay, and so did Matthew Stafford with the Rams, that sometimes a fresh start is needed to reach the mountaintop. But Rodgers is entering his age-40 season, and the Jets will need to make the most of his presence this season.
e final ingredient for the 49ers to win their first Super Bowl since the mid-1990s.
1. San Francisco 49ers
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Ironically, the 49ers keep buying themselves time to win a Super Bowl by drafting quarterbacks Trey Lance and Brock Purdy. But after falling short the past few seasons and a title drought that extends nearly three decades, patience might be low in San Francisco. The 49ers are in win-now mode because they traded away first-round picks in 2022 and ’23 to move up in the draft and select Lance two years ago, and they relinquished this year’s second-round pick to Carolina to land running back Christian McCaffrey. The 49ers also splurged in free agency adding interior defensive lineman Javon Hargrave, the former standout for the Eagles.
49ers general manager John Lynch has been aggressive, and the results have been three NFC championship game appearances and a trip to the Super Bowl in the past four seasons, but that’s not the end game. Lance is only in his third season, but it’s now or never because he lost his starting job to Purdy and will likely receive another opportunity to prove himself with Purdy recently undergoing surgery on his throwing arm.
Also, the 49ers ignored the analytics community paying a high price for a running back, and the only way to prove them wrong is by winning a Super Bowl with McCaffrey. There’s uncertainty surrounding the quarterback position, but the 49ers have shown they can win with subpar quarterback play due to a stacked roster featuring tight end George Kittle, edge rusher Nick Bosa, linebacker Fred Warner and wide receiver Deebo Samuel.
But elite quarterback play might be th
