It was widely reported earlier this week that the Denver Broncos were planning to release veteran linebacker Randy Gregory, who the team signed ahead of the 2022 season on a five-year, $70 million contract but has ultimately failed to live up to that deal.
Gregory missed the majority of his first year with the team due to injury, and he’s only appeared in 10 games with just three sacks since joining the team. He was removed from Denver’s starting lineup in Week 4, signaling the team planned to move on.
The Broncos threw the league a curveball, however, as they ultimately found a trade partner in the San Francisco 49ers.
Gregory will be shipped off to a San Francisco team that is 4-0 and seen by many as the early Super Bowl favorites. General manager John Lynch and coach Kyle Shanahan hope to revive the 30-year-old’s career and bolster a scoring defense that already ranks third in the league while sitting at fifth in total defense.
A second-round pick in 2015 for the Cowboys, availability has been a concern for Gregory, who has never played a full season due to a combination of suspensions and injuries. When on the field, however, he’s been fairly productive. He totaled six sacks in both the 2018 and 2021 seasons despite playing in just 14 and 12 games, respectively.
The 49ers are looking for that level of production coming off the bench as they search for their first world championship since 1994.
Let’s break down who won the surprising trade between the 49ers and Broncos.
The details
Per ESPN’s Adam Schefter, here’s the compensation for both parties.
49ers Receive: LB Randy Gregory, 2024 seventh-round pick
Broncos Receive: 2024 sixth-round pick
Comp update: Broncos are trading pass rusher Randy Gregory and a 2024 7th-round pick to the San Francisco 49ers for a 2024 6th-round pick, per sources.
— Adam Schefter (@AdamSchefter) October 6, 2023
San Francisco 49ers
This is the kind of luxury move you can make when you have the benefit of Nick Bosa and a supporting cast of edge rushers that includes solid players like Drake Jackson and Clelin Ferrell. The Broncos — likely desperate to make a deal — will eat a roughly $10 million payout to Gregory for this season, while the 49ers only owe Gregory the veteran minimum this season, according to Schefter.
The cap hit would increase significantly beginning next season until the end of his contract in 2026, but his deal is also not guaranteed beyond this season. That gives San Francisco a lot of flexibility to move on if things don’t work out down the stretch this year.
Broncos will pay Randy Gregory roughly $10 million for the remainder of this season.
49ers will pay Gregory the veteran minimum for the remainder of the season.
Gregory has three years left on his contract; none of it is guaranteed after this season.
— Adam Schefter (@AdamSchefter) October 6, 2023
Banking on significant production from Gregory, especially at this point in his career and given his recent performance, is certainly a bit of a gamble. But San Francisco doesn’t have much skin in the game here, and if Gregory is even a modest contributor, it will probably end up looking like a good trade.
Even if he’s not, the 49ers could pull the plug on the experiment after this year essentially no worse for the wear, minus a one-year veteran minimum salary and a sixth-round pick.
Maybe this move never amounts to anything. Maybe it will finally give Shanahan’s team the boost it needs to finally capture the Lombardi Trophy. Either way, it’s hard to imagine it will end up looking like a loss for San Francisco.
Grade: A
Denver Broncos
It’s pretty apparent that the Broncos were trying to cut their losses here after making a free-agent move that just objectively did not work out. Gregory never became a major contributor, and he had recently been outplayed by some younger players on the roster.
Denver seemed fully content to release Gregory, but instead it was able to find a willing trade partner. However, it won’t save the team from paying him the bulk of his remaining salary for this season, so this move really just amounts to the same result as the team releasing him, except it picked up some late-round draft capital and saved a bit of cash.
Given the fact that Gregory’s time in Denver was obviously at an end, this was probably the best the Broncos were going to do. This isn’t a bad deal in a vacuum, but it’s hard to give them a lot of props for successfully moving on from a contract they never should have given out in the first place.
If Gregory figures things out on a Super Bowl-contending team, things are only going to look worse for Denver.
Grade: C+
