The 49ers are in a unique place in the NFL hierarchy. To insulate themselves from their perils of going all-in to find a superstar quarterback, they’ve built a roster that’s somewhat quarterback-proof. The level of play required for them at that position is lower than the average team thanks to a well-designed offense by head coach Kyle Shanahan, a glut of offensive playmakers, and a defense that has a case to be the NFL’s best.
While San Francisco has built out a terrific roster that allows them to be in the contender conversation despite more offseason turmoil under center, it’s still not the NFL’s best according to ESPN. In fact, it is neither the best roster in the NFC, nor is it top five in the NFL in a ranking from the Worldwide Leader.
ESPN’s Michael Clay and Seth Walder placed the 49ers as the eighth-best roster in the league. They’re behind the Chiefs, Eagles, Bills, Dolphins, Bengals, Cowboys and Chargers.
A dominant front seven is listed as the 49ers’ best unit, while the offensive line checks in as the worst.
Here are a handful of things that need to happen this season for San Francisco’s roster to outperform its preseason rank:
OL steps up
There’s a pretty heavy bet from the 49ers on their offensive line taking a collective step forward in 2023. Last year they rolled the dice with three first-time starters on the interior with left guard Aaron Banks, center Jake Brendel and right guard Spencer Burford. It worked out for the most part, but there needs to be a collective improvement from that group in Year 2 together or the question marks about the team’s interior OL will remain.
On top of that, the 49ers appear set to have first-time starter Colton McKivitz take over at right tackle after Mike McGlinchey left in free agency. McKivitz has acquitted himself well in a small smattering of playing time, but he’s a sizable question mark on an already uncertain O-line.
If the four players alongside Trent Williams can be even league average, it would go a long way toward quelling the biggest concern on the 49ers’ roster.
Rise of Deommodore Lenoir
There’s no mention of the 49ers’ secondary in ESPN’s rankings, but that group has a chance to be very good this year and turn into a strength for an already stout defense. Lenoir is the biggest key to such a leap.
Last season Lenoir had an up-and-down year while filling in for the injured Emmanuel Moseley. In the playoffs he flipped a switch though and turned into a shutdown CB who allowed only five catches on 13 targets with no touchdowns and two interceptions in three postseason contests. If that’s the level of play he matches in 2023 it would be hard not to mention the secondary when lauding the 49ers’ defensive roster.
Healthy Elijah Mitchell
It seems impossible to fit another weapon into the 49ers offense in a way that would matter in terms of roster rankings, but Mitchell has the potential to create that sort of impact if he’s healthy. According to Walder, Mitchell “recorded 1.2 rushing yards over expectation per carry in his limited playing time, compared to McCaffrey’s 0.3 RYOE per carry while playing for the 49ers, per NFL Next Gen Stats.”
Mitchell has been superb when healthy, but he’s played in only 16 games across two NFL seasons. If he stays healthy enough to take on 10-12 touches per game and turns a couple of those touches into explosive plays, it could have a significant ripple effect that lifts the rest of the 49ers’ offense by limiting the workload of the other playmakers. A healthy Mitchell turns the 49ers’ good RB group into the NFL’s best.
Brock Purdy clears 2 hurdles
This is perhaps the biggest key for the 49ers. They don’t need Purdy to be prime Joe Montana. They do need him to do two things though to help buoy the entire roster.
First, he needs to get healthy. His right elbow is the biggest question mark the 49ers face heading into training camp. If he is healthy and capable of playing in games by the season opener, it solves a lot of the problems San Francisco could run into on offense.
Second, Purdy needs to avoid a sizable regression. While he was terrific in his eight games to close last season, there are a handful of his numbers that were off the charts and could easily come back down to Earth. A regression away from historically, all-time great numbers can be expected. He just needs to avoid turnovers, avoid sacks and to continue stretching out defenses vertically when the opportunities are there.
If Purdy can avoid a significant regression and continue playing like the best QB the 49ers have had under Shanahan, it would do wonders for the perception of the rest of their roster.
