With the 2023 NFL season now officially in the rearview, the Miami Dolphins, along with the 31 other teams, have moved on to the offseason planning stage of the year.
Before the start of the new league year in March, the Dolphins have a number of tough decisions that will have to be made by general manager Chris Grier that will impact the team’s future in both the short and long term.
Let’s dive into some of those choices and talk about potential outcomes for the aqua and orange in the coming months.
Creating cap space
The 2024 salary cap isn’t officially set, but it’s expected to be about $240 million, according to NFL Network’s Ian Rapoport.
Using the $242 million estimation on Over the Cap, the Dolphins are currently expected to be $51.9 million over the cap and will need to get under by the start of the new league year.
There are a number of ways that they can do this. Miami could clear a good chunk of cap space by moving on from Emmanuel Ogbah, Keion Crossen and Jeff Wilson Jr.
More can be opened up with an extension with the quarterback (more on that later).
Then, there are restructures. The Dolphins could re-work the contracts of Tyreek Hill, Jalen Ramsey, Bradley Chubb and others to make sure they’re in good standing for 2024.
If needed, Miami could also designate Xavien Howard as a post-June 1 cut, which would save another $18.5 million, but that’s money they won’t be able to use until later in the offseason.
No matter what they decide to do, Grier and cap guru Brandon Shore will have their hands full with these moves coming up.
Christian Wilkins' future
Dolphins defensive tackle Christian Wilkins has been one of the best interior defenders in the league in recent years, and he won the bet on himself this season, as he recorded 65 tackles (10 for a loss), a career-high 23 quarterback hits, a career-high nine sacks, two passes defensed, two recovered fumbles and one forced fumble.
Now, the former Clemson Tiger is set up for a huge payday, and Miami has a few options.
They could pay him, franchise him with the expectation that he plays on it, franchise him with the expectation of trading him or letting him walk.
At this point, it feels like Wilkins’ market might just be too high for the Dolphins, so it’s hard to imagine them agreeing to a long-term deal now. However, franchising him might be the best option.
The franchise tag is projected to be $19.8 million, which, again, feels steep. Miami could slap that on him with the intent of trading him. That way, instead of possibly getting just a compensatory pick back next year, they could get a guaranteed selection in 2024.
Tua Tagovailoa extension
Tagovailoa is headed into his fifth professional season in the NFL, and he’s coming off of his best year yet, as he set career highs in completion percentage (69.3%), touchdowns (29) and passing yards (a league-leading 4,624).
However, down the stretch, things seemed to be just a tick off, leading to the team’s early playoff exit in the form of a loss to the Kansas City Chiefs at Arrowhead Stadium.
Tagovailoa might be under contract for one more season (the fifth-year option), but the Dolphins have to think about the future and whether or not they’re going to agree to a long-term deal with the quarterback.
A multi-year extension could save the team some money in 2024, but it could also be a massive commitment to get him under contract with reports that Tagovailoa’s representation is looking for a deal that could be around Joe Burrow’s ($55 million annually).
Both sides want to get a deal done, but the price has to be right. No one, even the biggest Tagovailoa defenders, should be looking to pay him over $50 million per year, but a middle ground could be found.
What to do with the first-round pick
It’s been three years since the Dolphins last used a first-round pick, as they selected both Jaylen Waddle and Jaelan Phillips in the opening round of the 2021 NFL draft. Since then, Miami has traded picks away for Tyreek Hill and Bradley Chubb, and they’ve had one taken away for tampering penalties.
In 2024, they currently hold pick No. 21, and there will certainly be some talented players who could help the team in the coming years. However, with Grier’s propensity for trading picks, will they even keep it, or will they trade for another proven veteran?
If they do decide to use the pick, what position will Miami use it on? The roster has some pretty large holes on both sides of the ball. They could draft the replacement for one of their big free agents that are set to leave this offseason or add to a position that they’re already set at and make it deeper.
Grier has options, but he has to make the right decisions to fully open Miami’s window and maximize it for as long as possible.
